Points League Pitchers: Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 19

3 years ago by Nicklaus Gaut

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We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of August 2nd - August 8th, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN and Yahoo! Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Friday, July 31.

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Know Your System

If you've read me even a little, you likely know what I'm going to say...You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Every point, in every category, counts.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and is now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard only with two points for stolen bases and a handful of other minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

The charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships. All leaderboards are sorted according to the player's APR*, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

Starting Pitchers

Two Start Weeks

Must Adds

Austin Gomber, COL - I'm sure recommending a Colorado pitcher won't totally blow up in my face. But Gomber just keeps trucking along, allowing a total of five earned runs over 12 IP (3.75 ERA) in his two starts since returning from the IL. And it might be in Colorado but a bad Miami offense (.291 wOBA and 27.9% K% vs LHP) just got worse with the loss of Starling Marte at the trading deadline.
Jordan Montgomery, NYY - Montgomery has a 1.62 ER over his last three starts and faces a Mariners team that has a.297 wOBA and 27.0% K% vs LHP. Juicy.
Johnny Cueto, SF - Cueto is a very low-risk, high-reward two-start option, with a 90 APR on the year and a 32 APR over the last three weeks (2.30 ERA). Arizona was bad vs RHP (.294 wOBA) before l0sing Eduardo Escobar and while Milwaukee gained them some Escobar, the Brewers still have just a .307 wOBA vs RHP.
Domingo German, NYY - The Yankees cost German a win in his last time out, after he allowed just one earned run over seven innings, while striking out 10. He's got a great matchup this week, facing a Mariners offense that has posted just a .298 wOBA vs RHP, with a 25.9% K%.

Can Adds

Cal Quantrill, CLE - Quantrill has only allowed a total of three earned runs in his last three starts, posting a 1.59 ERA. He faces a Detroit team that has just a .309 wOBA vs RHP, with a 25.6% K%.
Joe Ross, WSH - Ross got right back to work in his return from the IL on July 26, shutting out the Phillies for five innings in a no-decision, striking out four. He'll get Philadelphia again in his first start but has a tough matchup in his second start. Atlanta has a .324 wOBA vs RHP and just added Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall (not to mention an injured Eddie Rosario).
Jon Gray, COL - Let's double down on Colorado pitchers at home! That's bound to work, right? But Gray has been excellent lately and faces a Cubs team that had a .301 wOBA and 26.4% K% vs RHP and just traded their entire team away.
Cole Irvin, OAK - Even before getting rid of Joey Gallo, Texas was bad versus lefties, currently posting a .289 wOBA and 23.5% K% against them.
Casey Mize, DET - Mize has a 2.30 ERA over his last three starts but faces a Boston team with a .327 wOBA and 24.0% K% vs RHP.
Drew Smyly, ATL - Smyly has a 3.08 ERA in 10 starts since June 1, facing a St. Louis offense that has just a .311 wOBA vs LHP.
Logan Webb, SF - Webb has a 2.40 ERA over his last three starts, with a 32.1 CSW%, facing a Milwaukee team with .307 wOBA and 25.3% K% vs RHP in 2021.
Adrian Houser, MIL - The Pirates are bad versus right-handers, with a .299 wOBA against them in 2021.
Eric Lauer, MIL - The Pirates are even worse vs left-handers, with a .290 wOBA against them in 2021. But his second start against the Giants (.319 wOBA, 22.0% K%) isn't nearly as favorable.
Kris Bubic, KC - His first start against the White Sox is dicey but St. Louis is a lot juicier, with the Cardinals posting a .311 wOBA and 24.2% K% vs LHP. Over his last three starts, Bubic has a 2.00 ERA (3.55 FIP) with 12 strikeouts in 18 IP.
Brad Keller, KC - Keller was superb in July, posting a 2.28 ERA (3.41 FIP) over four starts. He faces a St. Louis offense that continues to be mediocre (at best) vs RHP, posting a .299 wOBA against them in 2021.
Ross Stripling, TOR - Stripling has been bad (8.16 ERA over his last three starts) but faces a Cleveland team that has just a .300 wOBA and 24.0% K% vs RHP, and just traded multiple pieces away at the deadline.
Jake Woodford, STL - Woodford has been servicable since moving to the rotation, allowing four earned runs total in his two starts. The Royals have just a .299 wOBA facing right-handed pitching.
Zach Thompson, MIA - The Mets have a .305 wOBA and 23.7% K% vs RHP and Thompson has been cruising, posting a 2.33 ERA for the season, with a 2.45 ERA over his last three starts.
Paolo Espino, WSH - Over his last three starts, Espino has a 3.57 ERA, which is still pretty decent even after you factor in they came against the Marlins, Orioles, and Cubs. The Phillies are better than those three but still only have a .303 wOBA vs RHP, with a 23.8% K%.
Vladimir Gutierrez, CIN - Gutierrez has been very good in three of his last four starts since the start of July, going at least six innings in each, with a 2.45 ERA over 18.1 IP. The fourth was a bit of a bugaboo, though, allowing 6 ER in 4 IP to the Mets. But why worry about that little guy when you can just live in the moment? He'll face the Pirates, who have a .299 wOBA vs RHP in 2021.
Luis Patino, SEA - Patino looked strong his last start, shutting out the Yankees for six innings, while striking out eight. He'll face a Seattle offense that has a .298 wOBA and 25.9% K% vs RHP in 2021.
Michael Wacha, TB - Michael Wacha facing two suspect offenses feels like a damn beartrap to me. But maybe not! Wacha has a 4.50 ERA over his last three starts but most recently shut out the Yankees for five innings, striking out nine.
Kyle Muller, ATL - They don't have Trea Turner anymore but the Nationals still hit left-handers really well, posting a .349 wOBA against them in 2021. However, Muller has been outstanding lately, allowing just one total run in his last two starts - and is currently only allowing one run over four innings as he pitches Saturday night while I write.
Chris Flexen, SEA - Flexen continues to be solid but this is a tough two-start week. While both Tampa and New York have over a 25% K% vs RHP, the Rays have posted a .324 wOBA against them and the Yankees just traded for Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo.

Desperate Adds

Merrill Kelly, ARI - Kelly has been quietly excellent for a few months but has a difficult matchup, as San Francisco has a .330 wOBA vs RHP this season and just added Kris Bryant.
Mike Minor, KC - Every Minor start is a roll of the dice. He'll be excellent or he'll be awful; there isn't much in between. We wish you luck.
Rich Hill, NYM - Miami is awful vs LHP but Rich Hill is awful against most everyone, posting a 5.79 ERA over his last three starts.
Steven Matz, TOR - Matz has a 3.86 ERA over his last three starts and gets an excellent matchup with Cleveland (.304 wOBA, 23.1% K% vs LHP). But be careful about running him out against the Red Sox (.326 wOBA vs LHP) in his second start.
Ryan Yarbrough, TB
Shane McClanahan, TB - The story is the same for McClanahan and Yarbrough; Baltimore is really tough on LHP (.329 wOBA, 21.8% K%) and the game is at teeny-tiny, Camden Yards. Tread carefully.
Tarik Skubal, DET - Skubal struggled in July, running a 5.86 ERA over five starts and 27.2 IP. It'll be hard to get back on track versus a Boston team that has a .326 wOBA and 21.6% K% vs LHP.
Matt Manning, DET - He only has a 6.00 ERA but outside of a nine-run shellacking against Cleveland on June 28, Manning hasn't been awful, with a 3.98 ERA in his other six starts. He'll have a chance for revenge against these new Guardians, who have a .300 wOBA and 24.0% K% vs RHP.
Martin Perez, BOS - You play a dangerous game any time you ride with Perez but Detroit has a mediocre .312 wOBA vs LHP, with a 26.2% K%. As a counterpoint, it's Martin Perez.
Wil Crowe, PIT - Crowe has a respectable 3.24 ERA over his last three starts, with a less respectable 5.63 FIP.
Tanner Houck, BOS - Houck will be recalled to face Toronto, who have a .340 wOBA and 21.3% K% vs RHP and has only completed five innings in one of his six starts.
Jordan Lyles/Dane Dunning, TEX - Neither Lyles (5.04 ERA) or Dunning (4.20 ERA) have been very good but the Angels (.318 wOBA) and Athletics (.310 wOBA) are both mediocre versus right-handed pitching.
Josh Fleming, TB - Fleming has been pretty bad lately, posting an 8.78 ERA over the last three weeks. But Seattle is equally bad against left-handed pitching, putting up just a .297 wOBA and 27.0% K% against them in 2021.
Madison Bumgarner, ARI - Bumgarner has a 2.00 ERA (4.20 FIP) over his last three starts but keep in mind that they came against the Rangers, Pirates, and Cubs.
Josiah Gray, WSH - Gray will need some new-team voodoo, as he faces a tough Giants offense (.330 wOBA vs RHP) that roughed him up in his first start on July 20, hitting three home runs and scoring four earned runs in his four innings. But they do strike out a lot (25.7% K% vs RHP), I guess?

Notable IL

Relief Pitchers

Keep in mind that with relievers, points scored can be deceiving. Most scoring systems make it pretty difficult for even the best non-closers to score elite points, making them very reliant on unpredictable wins. You simply need the save points to really do damage. AKA, when you see totally random names hit the leaderboard (particularly the 14-Day one), it's probably because they happened to get a few wins and/or a lot of usage. If a reliever doesn't have an established role, tread carefully.

One note about ownership; because ESPN uses nine open pitching slots, as opposed to dedicated slots for RP/SP, relievers tend to be lighter owned than on other sites.

Notable IL

With the trade deadline shaking bullpens up all over the league, we're going to do things a little differently this week, going through each team that currently has a relevant (according to our roster% threshold) bullpen situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The most recent closer, Joakim Soria, was shipped to Toronto, leaving Arizona with no clear option and no up-and-comers to keep an eye on.

In the Mix: Tyler Clippard (got save on Wednesday), Bret de Geus (blew save on Friday).

Baltimore Orioles

It's still a giant mess that you don't really want any part of.

In the Mix: Cole Sulser (got save on Friday), Paul Fry (hold on Friday), Dillon Tate (hold on Friday), Tanner Scott.

Boston Red Sox

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After being mostly irrelevant in Minnesota, Hansel Robles is traded to Boston and becomes completely irrelevant. Garrett Whitlock has limited viability in point leagues but continues to dominate. Since June 1, Whitlock has a 0.70 ERA over 25.2 IP, with four wins, five holds, and 28 strikeouts.

Chicago Cubs

With Craig Kimbrel being traded to the Southside, the Cubs bullpen is thrown into disarray. Luckily, their team is so bad that worrying about who will get the four save opportunities for the rest of the season, is likely the least of their worries.

In the Mix: Rex Brothers, Codi Heuer, Rowan Wick (currently on the IL but may ultimately be the favorite).

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds haven't had a save opportunity in over a week but Heath Hembree was the last one to get them, with Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims still on the IL. Recently acquired Mychal Givens could get in the mix but this remains a situation to avoid.

Kansas City Royals

In the Mix: Scott Barlow (saves on July 21 and July 26) and Greg Holland (saves on July 20 and July 23) are currently splitting things. Barlow is the better pitcher but both have limited fantasy usefulness.

Miami Marlins

Their former closer, Yimi Garcia, is now a non-fantasy entity in Houston's bullpen.

In the Mix: Anthony Bender (33.1% K%, 2.21 ERA) has the most fantasy-friendly profile but Dylan Floro has been the better pitcher lately (zero earned runs in last 13 appearances). Anthony Bass is also hanging around with Richard Bleier, who actually got Miami's last save opportunity on Wednesday (he blew it).

Minnesota Twins

Hansel Robles was traded to the Red Sox but the backend of the bullpen is still a fantasy quagmire.

In the Mix: Tyler Duffey (two holds and a loss in the last week), Alex Colome (blew save on Monday), Caleb Thielbar (win on Monday).

Philadelphia Phillies

This was already a shifting situation that muddied more by their trade for Ian Kennedy (who is above 50% rostered).

In the Mix: It remains to be seen whether Kennedy will be the full-time closer, or whether Ranger Suarez * (win on Thursday, save on Sunday) will still get opportunities.

* Suarez is apparently a starter now.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Incumbent closer, Richard Rodriguez, was traded to the Atlanta Braves, leaving the Pittsburgh role open.

In the Mix: It looks like David Bednar (31.4% K%, 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) gets the first crack and he's a must-add in all formats. Too bad Pittsburgh won't win more games.

Seattle Mariners

Following Kendall Graveman's trade to Houston, Paul Sewald was briefly elevated to the closer du jour in fantasy's head-canon. That last for about 10 minutes until the Mariners traded for Diego Castillo and promptly named him their closer. Luckily, Sewald (43.1% K%, 2.23 ERA) is so dominant that he still might be worth holding onto.

Texas Rangers

The trade of Ian Kennedy leaves the Texas job open.

In the Mix: It looks like Spencer Patton (34.8% K%, 3.18 ERA) will get the first shot. Considering how many leagues I picked him up in last week, I really hope he runs with it. Unfortunately, the Rangers aren't very good, even if he does.

Washington Nationals

Washington not only traded their incumbent closer Brad Hand (I called it!...Kind of?) but also shipped off their top setup man, Daniel Hudson.

In the Mix: It looks like Kyle Finnegan (25.0% K%, 3.21 ERA) gets the first shot and should be added in all formats.

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