Articles
Travis d'Arnaud (C, NYM) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values
BALLER MOVE: Target ~ 250 CURRENT ADP: 281.7 ANALYSIS: Travis d’Arnaud was a popular sleeper pick heading into 2016, as his .268/.340/.485 line with 12 dingers in 268 plate appearances had fantasy owners interested. A shoulder injury bit into his playing time and limited him to a .247/.307/.323 line with four homers, however, removing him […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoStephen Vogt (C, OAK) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values
BALLER MOVE: Target ~220 CURRENT ADP: 240.7 ANALYSIS: Stephen Vogt's .251/.305/.406 line with 14 HR wasn't sexy, but the bar for catchers is pretty low. He is a little better than his surface stats suggest, too. His BABIP on ground balls was just .153 last year against a career average of .218. The shift was […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoWilson Ramos (C, TB) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values
BALLER MOVE: Target ~230 CURRENT ADP: 253 ANALYSIS: Wilson Ramos had one of the better 2016 seasons for a catcher, as he hit .307/.354/.496 with 22 bombs in a breakout campaign. He also tore his ACL, preventing him from playing until May 2017 at the earliest. He seems to be recovering nicely from the knee […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: Mark Trumbo and Chris Archer
This is a bit of a slow time in terms of baseball news. Most of the interesting free agents have already signed, such as Mark Trumbo returning to the club he slugged 47 homers for last year. The trade market is also dead, with Tampa Bay starters seeming to be the most likely to move […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: Logan Forsythe and Justin Turner
I read something the other day referring to the Yankees as possible "AL Dodgers" due to their ability to spend. I thought LA's limitless payroll made them the NL's Yankees, but apparently the team is the new "Evil Empire." Regardless of their reputation, the team has kept its offseason under control. Balking at Minnesota's asking […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoFive Catcher Draft Values and Sleepers For 2017
The 2017 MLB season, like the vast majority of campaigns that have come before it, figures to feature a weak catcher position. Not to worry - today I'm here to help identify some early catcher draft values and potential sleepers for the 2017 fantasy baseball season. Catchers who can hit at all require you to […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: Kendrys Morales and Jose Bautista
Toronto has had a polarizing offseason to say the least. Faced with the possibility of losing two of their trademark sluggers, the team jumped on DH Kendrys Morales with a long term contract to fill the void. The move was questioned at the time, and looked even worse when the market refused to pay for […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: Nate Karns and Jose Quintana
Pitching always seems to define my fantasy seasons, good and bad. After covering Jarrod Dyson in the last Champ/Chump, it makes sense to acknowledge that the piece Kansas City acquired is also interesting from a fantasy perspective. Jose Quintana may be the best pitcher on the trade market, so he has been involved in his […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond
Welcome back RotoBallers, to my ongoing series of Champs or Chumbs. I take a look at different MLB players, and determine if they truly will be viable fantasy baseball assets in 2017. Fantasy owners have a need for speed that blows the value of the stolen base way out of proportion relative to the real […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: Sonny Gray and Jason Hammel
Clubs looking for starting pitching are mostly out of luck in this market. Sonny Gray is the among the biggest names on the trade market, but he posted a 5.69 ERA last year. Jason Hammel is the top remaining free agent, but he is not anyone's idea of an ace. Can either help 2017 fantasy […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: Danny Espinosa
Last season saw a significant uptick in league-wide home runs, reducing the value of power-only profiles in the fantasy game. No one has conclusively determined why homers were up, but some people are assuming that it will remain the case for 2017. It might, but I look forward to drafting power at a discount in […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: Cameron Maybin
This time of year, it is easy to think only about the big names who are on the move, the Chris Sales and Andrew McCutchens of the world. Once the season starts up again, however, role players make a larger impact collectively on who plays in October. The same principle applies to the fantasy game. […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoReviewing Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions For 2016
During the offseason, I joined a bunch of my fellow Rotoballer writers in boldly predicting what might occur in the upcoming season. I foolishly ended that piece's intro with ,"Am I a Champ or a Chump?" despite the fact that no one had any idea how I did yet. The season is over, so now […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: How'd I Do?
The point of Champ or Chump is to use every metric imaginable to try to predict how a player will perform in the future. It's not always right, as true talent levels change while luck plays a role in every play's individual outcome. Historically, I conclude the analysis based on what I see as the […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Tillman, Hanley, and Gary Sanchez
As we head toward the season's final week, chances are your fantasy fate has been decided. Even if it hasn't, adding players for this year only holds so much potential value. Your process may be flawless, but the tiny sample size remaining can ruin the best laid plans. My favorite story to that effect is from […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Gregorius, Nunez, and Dozier
A few weeks back, I lamented Rich Hill's blister problem because it prevented me from including him in my NL trade deadline article. He is back now, but was famously pulled after just 89 pitches despite being perfect for seven innings, again due to blister concerns. Babying him may be the best move for the […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Happ, Porcello, and King Felix
After two weeks of identifying underowned pieces who could help you solidify your stretch run, I figure it is time to do the opposite. Below are three pitchers that you have likely been relying on for some time now, but may not want to do so now that it is all on the line. Their […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Peraza, Prado, and Tyler Anderson
Thanks to the new splits tab on Fangraphs.com, we now have access to BABIP data by batted ball type for pitchers. This is a useful tool for determining whether a speedy batter has been fortunate, and I expect this new data to tell us how much a pitcher is benefiting from or being hindered by […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Conforto, Gray, and Ray
At this point in the year, all fantasy teams fall into one of three categories. There's the winner, the team that built an insurmountable lead in a rotisserie or points format or clinched a H2H playoff spot. If that is you, congratulations! Then there's the also-ran, the team that nothing went right for all season. […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Tim Anderson, David Dahl, and Trea Turner
By this stage of the season, there is no such thing as a perfect fantasy move. Every player available to you has warts, be they a lack of track record, unacceptable strikeout rate, or surface stats unsupported by underlying metrics. That first group is the focus of this week's column, as we look at three […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Moore, Reddick, and Kemp
Sometimes, a blister just ruins your day. I did AL players that were traded last week, hoping that Rich Hill's blister issues would be resolved by the time I got to the NL. They aren't, so Hill won't appear in this column. Instead, we'll look at Matt Moore's efforts to make a contending team worse, […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Pomeranz, Beltran, and Lucroy
The non-waiver trade deadline has officially passed, and baseball fans were treated to a number of last second deals. Unfortunately for my purposes, most of them are RPs that I evaluate by whether they get saves. Washington's Mark Melancon and Chicago's Aroldis Chapman earn Champ tags from me as they figure to continue earning saves. […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Gordon, Hamilton and Villar
It's Trade Deadline time, but I can't analyze lineup spots or roles resulting from trades that haven't happened yet. So, I'll save that for next week. I also promised myself I'd cover Dee Gordon upon his return from the stupidity suspension list, which happened this past Thursday. I also resolved to pair him with fellow […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Kepler, Pujols and Strasburg
It's the first full week of MLB action after the All-Star Game, and plenty of stories have emerged. Max Kepler is lighting waiver wires on fire with a scorching hot start to his MLB career. Albert Pujols is celebrating like it's 2006 with two multi-HR games this past week. With the unfortunate injury news on […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of NL All-Stars Cueto, Duvall, and C. Seager
As you may know, the AL defeated the NL 4-2 in the All Star Game. As a lifelong NL fan, this saddens me. I have to ascribe the blame to Terry Collins. Why was the completely unqualified Addison Russell allowed to play so long? Why did Jay Bruce and his replacement level performance log defensive […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Bruce, Polanco, and Myers
Over the last two weeks, we have profiled expensive draft day assets who have largely failed to live up to the hype. This week, we change it up a bit by discussing established players who have exceeded expectations thus far. All three have experienced success before. Jay Bruce was once a feared slugger. Gregory Polanco […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Franco, Harper, and A. Gonzalez
Continuing last week's trend, this week we profile three more players that cost a fortune on Draft Day and thus far have failed to deliver. Maikel Franco is one of the few MLB-caliber players on Philadelphia's roster. Adrian Gonzalez has lost his title as perhaps the safest selection in fantasy sports. Bryce Harper is following […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Upton and Prince Fielder
Risk in fantasy sports is supposed to be the thing you balance against upside toward the end of your draft. Everyone should get roughly equal early round talent, and then teams differentiate themselves by guessing right on lesser names. Except it doesn't always work out that way. Sometimes your highly priced brand name superstar contributes […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Wright, Lackey and McCutchen
Last week's column was kind of a downer, harping as I did about my least favorite MLB player. This week I figured I should do the opposite and profile three of my favorite players. I'm a sucker for a good knuckleballer (or even a bad one), so Steven Wright continues the trend of a Red […]
Rick Lucks 8 years agoChamp or Chump: What to Make of Mazara, Papi, and Stanton
I have power on my mind this week, in part because I have relocated to Denver, Colorado, known to all fantasy owners as a hitter's paradise. Regardless of the reason, this week we look at the consensus #1 power hitter coming into the season, the final season of a Boston legend, and a 21 year […]
Rick Lucks 8 years ago