Categories
Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Charley Hoffman Has Been Regaining Form

It was a rough stretch for Charley Hoffman for nearly a year on the PGA Tour. Hoffman only made the weekend 52% of the time during the 2019 season, and the same could be said during the early stretch of 2020 after we saw him only produce four made cuts in his first nine tournaments. Thankfully, all of that appears to have changed during the restart, and the UNLV product has recorded five made cuts in seven events, including three top-25 results. Hoffman has the style to dominate at an open test like Corales Golf Club, and he is an intriguing GPP option to consider this weekend.

Categories
Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Denny McCarthy Should Find Greens To Suit His Style

Already one of the best putters in the world, Denny McCarthy gets an ideal test this weekend at Corales Golf Club. McCarthy ranks first compared to the field in putting on a Bermuda/Paspalum surface over his previous 50 rounds, and he also grades out fifth in strokes gained total over his last 24. McCarthy's ability to make cuts should provide a built-in level of safety for the American, and there is more upside than usual for him to find success in GPP contests.

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Betting Picks - Sports Bets, Wagers, Advice Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Lineup Picks Editor Note Golf Analysis PGA Golf DFS DraftKings RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - Corales Puntacana

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Well, I can't say I am surprised by Jon Rahm's meltdown at the U.S. Open after not using him for the Memorial and BMW Championship. I missed out on both of those victories to get a sloppy share of 23rd at Winged Foot, and that move will get compounded since it caused me to save Bryson DeChambeau for the Masters and not play him in New York. I have to say...this contest has just been one of those things where I can't get anything to go right.

Joe, on the other hand, maintained his sizable lead with a share of eighth place from Tony Finau, and I know Josh had to be disappointed by Justin Thomas' weekend meltdown that placed him in a position where he could only match our leader with his $302,236 payday.

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - Corales Puntacana

Joe Nicely -Will Zalatoris 

Alternate - Kristoffer Ventura

I’ve tried to play the last couple of months of this OAD contest with “no fear” and I’m going to stick to that mantra this week in the Corales Puntacana Championship, an event with a field that looks like it was randomly picked out of a “Are we sure this guy is a PGA Tour player? Ok good, let’s get him in!” hat.

In a field composed mainly of veteran journeymen and young up-and-comers, I’m going with a player that has perhaps the brightest future of them all...Will Zalatoris. “Willie Z” is a player that hardcore golf fans have been keeping an eye on, but he put his name in the general public’s consciousness last week with an impressive T6 finish at the U.S. Open. This kid is no one-hit wonder, as he’s flat-out dominated the Korn Ferry Tour this season, posting a win and 10 (!) top-10s in just 16 starts

Yearly Earnings - $7,631,882

Yearly Cuts Made - 22/26

 

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Spencer Aguiar - Patrick Rodgers

Alternate - Kristoffer Ventura

Can I get a 50/50 call correct? Let's try this weekend by taking Patrick Rodgers over Kristoffer Ventura. I essentially need to shoot for the moon at this point, and I am not sure I can risk Joe (or even Josh) matching my selection. That places me in a position to grab a player that I am relatively sure won't be chosen by either, and I believe Rodgers' lack of support in all markets provides us an opportunity to acquire the American for outstanding value across the board.

A slight slip-up from the 192nd-ranked player in the world has seen him fail to crack the top-45 over his past three contests, but I don't want to get caught up in this narrative of saying that he is trending downwards. Rodgers has made six cuts in a row, and the weekend implosions during the Northern Trust and Wyndham Championship aren't something that I want to hold against him too harshly.

The 28-year-old becomes the third-player in my model when I stretch out his results to the Workday Charity Open, and while I do believe Ventura is a much safer option for those that are searching for a payday, I am going to go for broke and hope for the best.

Yearly Earnings - $4,542,975

Yearly Cuts Made - 20/26

 

Josh Bennett - Kristoffer Ventura

Alternate - Corey Conners

As most people do, on a resort course like this where it’s obvious there will be tons of birdies made all over the course, the main target for me this week are “birdie makers”. However, the birdie or better stat isn’t the one I’m chasing this week as many others are. The fairways are huge on this course and nearly impossible to miss, and on almost every hole other than the par 3’s these guys will have wedges into the green, making it also nearly impossible to miss the green. So I’m looking at the good putters that convert birdies at a high percentage. Kristoffer was 11th on tour in that statistic in 2020 and 2nd in this field behind Dom Bozzelli.

Kristoffer’s game is similar to Denny McCarthy’s who I also like a lot (but used in this contest already), and Denny has had some solid finishes in this tournament before, so it seems like that formula of golf works here. I’m hoping Joe and Spence lean towards a couple of the bad putters at the top of the board here and those guys have a couple bad putting days so I can somehow work my way back into this contest.

Yearly Earnings - $4,265,609

Yearly Cuts Made - 22/26

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780
Tour Championship Xander Schauffele $1,665,000 Rory McIlroy $280,090 Daniel Berger $186,850
Safeway Open Brendan Steele $41,391 Harold Varner III $41,391 Sam Burns $214,500
U.S. Open Tony Finau $302,236 Jon Rahm $101,797 Justin Thomas $302,236

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


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Betting Picks - Sports Bets, Wagers, Advice Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Lineup Picks Editor Note Golf Analysis PGA Golf DFS DraftKings RotoBaller - All Fantasy Sports Articles

PGA Betting Advice - Corales Puntacana

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (74-38-8), netting over 43 units of profit and slightly over a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection 

Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I believe name recognition for Charles Howell III has provided him a little more credit than he deserves for the week. The 41-year-old ranks outside the top-100 with his irons over his previous 24 rounds and fails to crack the top-50 compared to the field in par-five birdie or better percentage.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

While I do like Adam Long and the general safety he provides, Howell isn't a natural head-to-head target because of his high percentage of made cuts. That doesn't mean we can't pinpoint an edge on a battle that will most likely go four days, but there is always more of a risk when things can go wrong on the weekend. I'd have made Long a -120 favorite and believe we are gaining around a 4.5 percent edge in terms of implied win probability.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

 

Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

It has been all-or-nothing for Sam Ryder since the beginning of 2020, as the 233rd-ranked player in the world has missed 10 of 18 cuts to go along with five top-30 finishes.  That level of volatility typically makes for a good golfer to target in the head-to-head spectrum, and Ryder's failed venture at the venue in 2018 adds to my optimism that we may see him miss out on another weekend.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Frankly, Ryder is the better statistical fit for Corales Puntacana. Three missed cuts in a row versus Rob Oppenheim's three consecutive top-36 results can only go so far, and there is a chance that we see Ryder turn it on in a big way to get himself out of his slump. For that reason, I am not entirely opposed to playing the American in GPP contests on DraftKings, but I do believe we are off by about 25 points from a head-to-head perspective.

0.70 Units to Win 0.77

 

Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Statistically, Sam Burns grades out as my most likely winner this weekend at Corales Golf Club. The 24-year-old has been trending towards his first PGA Tour victory, and the overall level of erraticness from Corey Conners can't be understated. Conners is not only 50/50 in made cuts at the venue in his two tries but is also 50/50 over his last six events on tour. I think there is a chance that we sneak a missed cut out of Conners, but more likely, I think Burns' upside can bypass that of what we get out of the Canadian.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

We could have a dogfight on our hands for four days. It doesn't take away from the fact that I want to find a way to identify some exposure to Burns after not selecting him in the outright market, nor does it ignore the nearly 4.5 percent edge that we have on the play. Still, though, Conners is always just a hot putter away from having a chance to compete for the title, and his overall makeup isn't that of someone that we are clamoring to fade.

0.70 Units to Win 0.70

 

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (14-11-3)

2.02 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1
Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 T58 (-6) T44 (-8) Loss -1.35
Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 T14 (-15) T29 (-13) Win 1.32
Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 T23 (+10) MC (+14) Win 1.17

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

21-22-0 (+2.57 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65
Northern Trust Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T8 (-15) T49 (-7) Win 0.7
Northern Trust Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley 0.77 Units to win 0.70 MC (+8) T8 (-15) Loss -0.77
Northern Trust Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson 0.74 Units to win 0.70 MC (+3) T6 (-16) Loss -0.74
Tour Championship Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T18 (-5) T27 (+1) Win 0.7
Tour Championship Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl 0.85 Units to win 1.20 T24 (E) 30 (+4) Win 1.2
Tour Championship Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson 0.65 Units to win 1.11 T12 (-9) 1 (-21) Loss -0.65
Tour Championship Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson 0.45 Units to win 1.22 T2 (-18) 1 (-21) Loss -0.45

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open 33 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Justin Thomas Tour Championship 6 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Hideki Matsuyama BMW Championship 40 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Jon Rahm Northern Trust 16 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Webb Simpson U.S. Open 50 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Mackenzie Hughes Enters Week As Second Favorite

Mackenzie Hughes will provide gamers with a bit of an enigma situation this weekend at the Corales Puntacana. Hughes is priced as the second betting favorite in Vegas at 14/1 and is the third choice on DraftKings at $10,300. Hughes' jump in salary is a significant one compared to what we are used to receiving on him, but it might be justified after seeing the Canadian post five top-13 finishes to go along with eight made cuts in his last nine tournaments. If you believe Hughes has taken the next step with his game, we can understand playing him, but it is always uncomfortable to pay up in price for a player that doesn't have a consistent pedigree.

Categories
Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Charles Howell III Will Be A Contrarian Option

Currently projected to garner under seven percent ownership on DraftKings, Charles Howell III arrives in the Dominican Republic with five made cuts in his previous six events. While all of that is promising for a golfer that will need four days of golf to pay off his $9,700 salary, the American has only posted one top-10 finish over his last 17 events. We think Howell has a relatively safe floor compared to some of his counterparts, but it depends on how much win equity you are looking for with your selection.

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PGA DFS Vegas Report - Corales Puntacana (Premium Content)


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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Corales Puntacana

Welcome back, RotoBallers! It was a world-class performance we saw from Bryson DeChambeau at the U.S. Open, as the 27-year-old captured his first major championship by six shots over Matthew Wolff. DeChambeau often gets criticized for his unique way of thinking about golf, but performances like this emphasize why he might be the most transcendent player the game has seen in years.

The American was able to turn his body into a weapon, and it has allowed him to outmuscle and outsmart opponents with his unusual gameplans that often border between sanity and madness. While most other players entered Winged Foot with a strategy of connecting on fairways and playing it safe, DeChambeau went for a controlled aggression route, using his driver every chance possible to advance his ball down the course. Misses did come into play with only 23 connected fairways over four days, but the now seven-time PGA Tour winner made sure to miss in the right locations to give himself a chance, proving why he is a step above the rest.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Corales Puntacana

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Corales Puntacana - PGA DFS Overview

Corales Golf Club

7,600  Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda/Paspalum

A Tom Fazio design, the course opened in 2010 and has only been on the PGA Tour rotation since 2018. The Web.com used the venue as a trial run in 2016-2017, but I am only going to use the two years of data that we have on the big-stage while crafting my breakdown for the week.

At first glance, there are a few things that caught my eye for how it appears the property will play. All four par-threes rank inside the nine hardest holes - each coming in at over 200 yards - and your four easiest locations will come at the par-fives, with two featuring over a 50 percent birdie or better rate. There are five par-fours that can play between 450-500 yards on a given day, and it does seem as if a mixture of long-iron and mid-iron proximity will be important.

There aren't any massive outliers that pop off the page for me when breaking down what exactly will be needed to fund success, but an overall level of ball striking does seem like a good place to start at a venue that is relatively straightforward. The 7,600-yard layout bakes most of its length between the par-three and fives, and we do have five par-fours under 440 yards. All of that makes finding an ideal location to target proximity challenging, but I will attempt to weigh a plethora of distances into my research. Length off the tee will most likely help get you to the greens on the longer holes, but I am not so sure it has as much bearing on scoring as the yardage would make it appear.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Corales Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy 71% 62%
GIR Percentage 64% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 62% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.54 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Will Zalatoris leads the way at 12/1 and is followed by Mackenzie Hughes 14/1, Corey Conners 16/1 and Sam Burns 20/1. Your defending champion, Graeme McDowell comes into the week at 45/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 25%
  • Par-Four Average 400-500 Yards 15%
  • Ball-Striking 15%
  • Proximity 200+ 12.5%
  • Par-Three Average 12.5%
  • Proximity 100-175 Yards 10%
  • Bermuda/Paspalum Putting 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000:

Will Zalatoris ($10,900)

I typically like tournaments that are either extraordinarily robust or watered-down with perceived talent, as I believe we can extract our most considerable edges in those settings. While we get that exact situation for this week's Corales event, it doesn't provide us with a great answer on what to do with Will Zalatoris and his event-leading $10,900 price tag on DraftKings. For me, the going rate is too much to feel comfortable spending top-tiered salary on the 24-year-old, but it doesn't mean we don't see Zalatoris provide a respectable showing.

Corey Conners ($10,600)

I'm emphasizing ball-striking this week, which immediately adds Corey Conners to the shortlist of options to consider. The Canadian is the number one player in the field in that category, and he tends to excel when he gets a shorter iron in his hands. All of that is well and good, but Conners' inability to putt - especially on Bermuda grass - is something that could create a problem situation for him over the four days. I typically don't mind taking a chance on the 28-year-old when the price is right, but you don't have to look any further than his missed cut last season and top-15 in 2018 to show that his level of volatility can be tough to swallow at over $10,000. I'm not going to have much exposure to Conners, but I would advise keeping it for GPP-only if you do decide to go down that rabbit hole.

Mackenzie Hughes ($10,300)

Receiving a massive boost in my model for course history and current form, Mackenzie Hughes will provide gamers with a bit of an enigma situation at a price tag we aren't accustomed to seeing him at for events. I don't have a massive issue with anyone near the top of the board from a stylistic perspective, but slight inconsistencies become magnified when we have to pay top dollar for players that have shown not to be world-class talents historically. I am okay with letting Will Zalatoris, Corey Conners or Mackenzie Hughes beat me if they can get the job done, but once again, none are fades for any other reason than price.

Sam Burns ($10,100)

Ownership is going to be the massive decider for me on Sam Burns. The 24-year-old is the first golfer over $10,000 that has piqued my curiosity, but it appears as if I am not the only person in this industry that has come to that conclusion. At this moment, Burns is projected to be the highest-owned player on the slate, but it is easy to understand why with all the checkmarks he provides across the board. I don't mind taking stances in all contests when I think there is positive equity to be had on the play, and I most likely will find myself on par (or above) with my own personal ownership percentages. It remains to be seen if I will take the brunt of my exposure and use it on him as the staple of my cash-game builds, but I can justify and understand building some GPP lineups around him.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Denny McCarthy ($9,600)

I don't find myself backing Denny McCarthy nearly ever, but the slow, grainy surface at Corales Golf Club will amplify his edge in putting over the field. I am not a believer in placing much emphasis on anything with the flat stick since it is one of the most challenging statistics to quantify mathematically, but McCarthy fits the venue for more reasons than making putts. The American ranks inside the top-30 when it comes to par-three average, par-four scoring between 400-500 yards and par-five birdie or better percentage - placing him as one of only two players in the field (Will Gordon) to fall underneath that criteria.

Kristoffer Ventura ($9,200)

Kristoffer Ventura is the forgotten about golfer from the National Championship Oklahoma State squad. All the accolades (and rightfully so) have been bestowed upon Matthew Wolff and Viktor Hovland, but Ventura is an exceptional talent of his own that is beginning to make strides with his game. Three straight finishes inside the top-37 has me believing that Ventura's inaugural victory on the PGA Tour might be just around the corner, and it wouldn't shock me if we see him accomplish that task in the Dominican Republic.

Charley Hoffman ($8,900)

I still believe there is this stigma attached to Charley Hoffman that often undermines his actual golfing ability. The ongoing joke is that Hoffman is a force that can't be stopped during the first round of a major championship, making him essentially Tiger Woods of Thursday golf. Look, I'm never going to argue with one of my UNLV alumni getting compared to the greatest golfer of all time - and frankly, we were Oklahoma State before they thought it was cool to become good at golf. But the bigger picture I am trying to make here is that Hoffman was an exceptional player in his prime that won four titles on tour. I don't believe we ever see him get back to that level of production at the age of 43, but the 151st-ranked player in the world has turned back the clocks slightly by posting four top-25 appearances on tour over his previous 10 events.

Luke List ($8,700)

I am done trying to predict Luke List's win equity because it is clearly higher than I believe it to be. The 35-year-old tends to be one of the most significant outliers for me weekly when it comes to being overpriced, but it has amounted to zero wins so far in his PGA Tour career. Like Corey Conners, there will be some issues on the putting surface, but I feel better about ignoring List's deficiencies at nearly $2,000 less.

Patrick Rodgers ($8,000)

I am going to find myself substantially overweight compared to the field on Patrick Rodgers. The American has produced six straight made cuts, with three finishes inside the top-35, but a lot of the public support will be missing because of three consecutive sub-par results that resulted in placements outside of the top-45. Maybe I should be more concerned than I am with his perceived negative trajectory, but I never found any of those tests to warrant that much positive outlook when I handicapped them originally. Rodgers has the perfect bounceback spot that will accentuate his strengths at Corales Puntacana.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,700)

Jhonattan Vegas sputtered at the Safeway Open, finishing with a final round 73 to fall down the leaderboard on Sunday. It has been a questionable restart for the Venuzealun with five straight results outside the top-50, but I have no issues going back down the well again if we think we can grab Vegas at around 10 percent ownership. I consider this to be a strictly GPP-only play, but there is upside to be captured at $7,700.

Keith Mitchell ($7,600)

We have had some conflicting reports on whether Corales Puntacana should be viewed as having bermuda or paspalum greens, but I don't see a massive difference either way because of their similar "grainy" textures. In reality, I hope everyone calls them paspalum because the cat is already out of the bag when it comes to Mitchell's improvements as a putter on slower bermuda surfaces.

Will Gordon ($7,600)

I just can't seem to avoid this Will Gordon trap during inferior quality events. I realize my sample size of data that I have on the American is small, but Gordon grades out as an elite player almost across the board. His nearly 20% projected ownership total might have me consider using him as nothing more than an outright wager, but I'd be lying if I didn't say that there is upside for a big result.

Seamus Power ($7,500)

Seamus Power got himself stuck into the $6,000 range for so long that DraftKings has had issues moving his salary much further than where we are getting it this weekend. The Irishman is far from a guarantee to post a made cut, but three top-30 finishes over his previous six tournaments should be yielding higher than a four percent ownership rate. At this moment, it is not.

Doug Ghim ($7,300)

Three out of four finishes in the top-50 for Doug Ghim since the 3M Open should be viewed as encouraging for his prospects this weekend, and his overall level of ball striking places him in the top-10 compared to the field. At under seven percent ownership, Ghim provides a potential pivot away from Chris Kirk and Chris Baker.

Akshay Bhatia ($6,900)

Akshay Bhatia became the youngest player (18) to finish in the top 10 of a stroke-play event on the PGA Tour during the Safeway Open since Justin Rose finished 4th in the 1998 Open Championship. Bhatia is beginning to look like one of golf's next up-and-coming stars, and he will get another opportunity to keep the momentum rolling this week.

Michael Gligic ($6,500)

It has been a strong run for Michael Gligic over the past five events, making the cut in each outing. The Canadian enters the week after posting a strong 14th place showing at the Safeway Open, and he should be able to use his par-five scoring ability to find another weekend at his reduced price tag.

 

 

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Xander Schauffele Searches For First Major

Will the U.S. Open be the location of Xander Schauffele's first major? If the stats have anything to say about it, the answer is maybe. The American ranks inside the top-seven for us compared to the field when it comes to statistics, current form and event history, making him one of the safest options on the board. Schauffele's ownership projection would be our only concern, but it is impossible to fade everyone for DFS - especially someone with as much upside for victory.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Is the Betting Market Telling Us Something On Adam Scott?

While using Las Vegas' odds try and locate an edge isn't always advisable, the betting market this week does seem to be more bullish on Adam Scott's potential than that of DraftKings. The Aussie is the 15th priced player on DraftKings for the week but comes in as the 11th golfer in the outright market. Those two numbers are not drastically different, but it does tell us that casinos might be expecting Scott to outperform his DFS price tag, which is never a bad thing.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Is Webb Simpson Worth The Hype?

Currently projected to be on nearly 17 percent of DraftKings lineups, Webb Simpson is likely going to be one of the five most owned golfers for the U.S. Open. That level of ownership can be both a positive and a negative, but Simpson's overall skill set will be difficult to ignore at a challenging Winged Foot test. The American ranks inside the top-20 compared to the field in strokes gained around the green, strokes gained total and three point avoidance, not to mention placing first in the field for both birdie percentage and bogey avoidance.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Dustin Johnson Looks For Second U.S. Open Title

Playing perhaps the best golf of his career, Dustin Johnson heads to the 2020 U.S. Open searching for his second major title. The American will be a popular selection on DraftKings for the week at his $11,500 price tag, but it does feel as if the 36-year-old is beginning to lose a little luster throughout the industry as we draw closer to Thursday. Any level of disinterest will always make him worth more of a look than we would have initially thought, and it should put the top player in the world on your shortlist when it comes to possible selections to start your builds.

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): U.S. Open

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Before we get started into the second major of 2020, I just wanted to give a massive shoutout to Joe Nicely for helping with this article last week. He did a magnificent job taking over the reins and added great insight that included recommendations of Sam Burns, Brendan Steele and Cameron Davis. Be sure to give him a follow on Twitter if you aren't doing so already, as he delivers superb weekly content that can help you win big when playing DFS golf.

With all that being said, I am happy to be back for this week's U.S. Open. Major championship events are typically my favorite tournaments to tackle from any sort of a gambling perspective, and this week will be no different at a test that could provide a winning score over-par. I feel as if that tough tests usually will supply us our best opportunity to model and break down what we expect to transpire, so without further ado, let's get right into the meat of what everyone came here to see!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - U.S. Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

U.S. Open - PGA DFS Overview

Winged Foot

7,477  Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa Annua

A typical U.S. Open is known for carnage, and we should have just that this weekend at Winged Foot. From a DFS/betting perspective, it provides an extra level of volatility, as it is not going to be easy to make up lost ground. That will get even further enhanced with only the top-6o and ties making the cut, but it doesn't mean we can't figure out an avenue to locate an advantage.

The rough is going to be extremely penial, making total driving a necessity to find success. Greens will feature undulated slopes that will need to be missed in the right locations, and certain spots will not allow a real opportunity to get up-and-down for par. That means we should focus on around the green and three-putt avoidance when modeling the event.

While it is easier said than done, the tournament will have to be played out of the fairway for anyone that wants a true shot at the title. Most tend to think that means finding the most accurate players on tour, but I believe that is the wrong way to view this scenario. If a player is shorter off the tee but generally gains strokes in that facet of their game, they aren't the golfer I am talking about, but the biggest bomber that is the most accurate for the week will have an advantage over most of the field. That isn't necessarily an easy thing to target, but it is worth keeping in mind when making your wagers/lineups.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Winged Foot Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy 50% 62%
GIR Percentage 52% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 40% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 1.00 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 10/1, Rory McIlroy at 12/1, Justin Thomas at 14/1 and Xander Schauffele at 16/1. Your defending champion, Gary Woodland, enters the week at 66/1

 

Key Stats

  • Total Driving 15%
  • OTT + App 15%
  • Scramble 15%
  • Bogey Avoidance 12.5%
  • Three-Putt Percentage 12.%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
  • Sand Save Percentage 10%
  • Driving Distance 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,500)

Flying into the week playing perhaps the best golf of his career, Dustin Johnson leads the way at $11,500 on DraftKings. The big-hitting American will need every bit of that form to conquer a challenging Winged Foot test, but how should we feel about his price tag on DFS sites? With the amount of volatility present at the venue, I am once again going to make Johnson beat me in all betting markets. Taking a contrarian route doesn't mean you are always right, but it does suggest that you will need to have a stomach capable of being in uncomfortable situations. If DJ beats me, all I can do is tip my cap to him and move on.

Jon Rahm ($11,000)

Will the U.S. Open be the location for Jon Rahm's first major championship? It is possible with the way the Spaniard can dominate on tough courses. One could argue that Rahm has won at the two most challenging tests so far in 2020 (Memorial & BMW Championship), and there is a chance he could thrive once again if he keeps his head on straight. I am much more likely to spend up and grab Rahm if I am going to go to the $11,000 or above range, but avoiding this domain altogether might help you to bypass nearly 30% of the field that will begin their lineups with the two men up top. That thought process is geared towards extremely large-field GPP contests, and it is not to say that Rahm isn't in play in those settings as well. I will be playing my fair share of him, and he is fairly priced at $11,000.

Justin Thomas ($10,700), Rory McIlroy (10,500)

Both Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy have had the propensity to do most of their damage at easier setups than we will get this weekend in New York. Thomas has only won three of his 13 titles on the PGA Tour in single-digits (PGA Championship -8, CJ Cup -9 and the Honda Classic -8, while McIlroy has failed to find the winner's circle at a total worse than 12-under par during any of his 28 worldwide victories. Those numbers are slightly skewed when you take into account that we don't get many events that fall into that territory, but it does indicate both players would prefer something a little easier than Winged Foot is looking like it will be this week. If I were to play one of the two, Thomas seems like a much better target with his skill set, but the complaining and continual loss of focus will need to stop for him to get over the hump.

Xander Schauffele ($10,100)

From an overall ranking standpoint, Xander Schauffele is my number one golfer at the U.S. Open. The American ranks inside the top-seven for me when it comes to stats, form and event history, and he does appear to be one of the safest options you can select. We can't bypass the entire board while worrying about ownership, but an extremely outside the box route for a few of your builds would be to start with your first golfer under $10,000. That will avoid some of the clutter up top and still allow you to be unique. However, if you are playing a plethora of lineups, you are most likely going to want to be around market value on the seventh-ranked player in the world because there is no reason to take a stance against him and let him decide your week.

Collin Morikawa ($10,000)

If I am being honest, I am not sure how much I love this layout for Collin Morikawa. The winner of the PGA Championship will go off as one of the highest owned players, but his shaky around the green game, poor three-putt avoidance numbers and overall inconsistent nature scrambling have him as someone that could find trouble if his irons aren't dialed in. Morikawa's strength in his approach game can solve many of his issues, but I am not sure this is the venue where he wants to rely on that one facet of his game.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Bryon DeChambeau ($9,900)

During my course breakdown, I discussed how Winged Foot could make it challenging for golfers that place themselves behind the eight-ball early. For a player like Bryson DeChambeau, that sentiment rings louder than most, as the 'Mad Scientist' is capable of any concoction or experiment for what is proper while playing a hole. Over the course of four days, one of those tests is bound to go wrong, making DeChambeau a prime blow-up candidate at any moment. I'm not projecting him to miss the cut and wouldn't be shocked to see him provide a top-25 finish, but if victory probably isn't in the likely range of outcomes, $9,900 is still a costly price tag to pay. You won't need much ownership to outweigh his current four percent projected total, so I don't mind taking a shot here and there, but there is risk involved.

Webb Simpson ($9,700)

The question for Webb Simpson will come down to the following: How much will his lack of distance and inferior off the tee numbers hurt his chances at an extended, arduous test. His erratic performance at East Lake has drawn some question marks for me in what to expect, but my model still likes his chances to find success. At a 16 percent projected ownership total, I will most likely go with my gut over my spreadsheet and be underweight to the field on him, but I can understand why someone would see this as an opportunity to grab value at a respectable number.

Daniel Berger ($9,200)

When we look at difficult U.S. Open tests, there haven't been many over the last few years that have been more challenging than Shinnecock Hills in 2018. Some can place the difficulty onto Saturday's baked out greens that saw the leaders falter down the stretch, but Daniel Berger was one of the names that found himself at the top of the leaderboard going into the final round after the weekend implosion happened for many in the field. Berger wasn't able to turn that chance into anything better than a sixth-place result, but there is no doubt that the 27-year-old has uncracked his potential so far in 2020, posting 10 top-25s over his previous 11 tournaments. Berger is closing in on his first major, and I wouldn't put it past him grabbing it in New York.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000)

Anyone who reads this article weekly will know that I have a slight obsession with Hideki Matsuyama's game. The Japanese sensation might be the best "pure" ball-striker on tour, but his lack of putting seems to undo his chances of finding more success than he does. Matsuyama's issue isn't that he is a poor putter; many guys have that complication and are able to see bursts of success randomly. Instead, his problem comes down to an overall inability to ever get anything going on the greens. He doesn't just lose; he loses almost every single time. While that is a hitch that needs to be changed, the 28-year-old has managed to gain a combined four shots with his putter over his last four tournaments, which might be a good sign that things are turning around.

Adam Scott ($8,700)

The betting market seems to be more in tune with where Adam Scott should be priced for the U.S. Open than DraftKings. Scott is the 15th priced player on DraftKings but comes in as the 11th golfer in the outright market. The eleventh position is where I have Scott being proper in all avenues, making him a small value at $8,700 and someone I am willing to play across the board.

Patrick Reed ($8,500), Tyrrell Hatton ($8,100)

Substantial projected ownership totals for Patrick Reed and Tyrrell Hatton won't take away from the duo being marginally underpriced for the week at their current going rate. As was the case with Adam Scott, I believe the betting markets are more lined up with what is proper, and it never hurts to seize some value when possible. Reed and Hatton have an outside shot to capture the title in New York but primarily should be viewed as cash-game staples.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Paul Casey ($7,900)

The curious case of Paul Casey will be a conundrum that makes it tough to decide how to proceed this week. Casey's lack of win equity is no longer just a statement; it is a fact. However, his $7,900 price tag doesn't require a victory to pay off his value. I am not a massive fan of acquiring low win equity players at a high ownership total in GPP contests, but I can understand Casey's intrigue when that is already being baked into his number.

Matt Kuchar ($7,200)

Speaking of low win equity golfers, Matt Kuchar continues to see his price tag shrink - coming into this week at just $7,200. The American has provided three top-16 results over his last five U.S. Open events, and the overall plodding nature of Winged Foot should play into his style.

Alex Noren ($7,100)

Alex Noren's four missed cuts in five years at the U.S. Open will keep his ownership totals subsided on all DFS sites, but it is his 25th place result at Shinnecock Hills that I find to be the most intriguing. Noren is a better player when the scores ramp up in difficulty, and I believe the perceived nature of this week's venue not fitting into his style might allow us to grab the Swede at what should be considered value.

Chez Reavie ($6,900)

I have Chez Reavie's expected cost being off by nearly $700 from where it should be for the second major of the year. Unfortunately, most golf pundits have also come up with the same sentiment, causing his projected ownership to hover around 15% for the week. There are some potential pivot spots available for those that want to go down a contrarian route, but Reavie's price tag is difficult to ignore.

Jason Kokrak ($6,800)

Jason Kokrak's 2020 season came to a halt before East Lake, but it wasn't from a lack of effort. The American posted three straight top-15 results, which included a sixth-place finish at the BMW Championship. Kokrak is a sensational ball striker that also gets distance off the tee, and we should see Winged Foot enhance some of those traits.

Kevin Na ($6,800)

In Kevin Na's previous six U.S. Open's, the 36-year-old has generated five top-32 results, which includes a seventh-place effort in 2016. Na's scrambling and around the green prowess should shine through at a venue that will need creativity, and his putter is always capable of keeping him in an event.

Brian Harman ($6,400)

The biggest disparity on this week's model belongs to Brian Harman, who comes in 79 spots lower on DraftKings than my spreadsheet has him projected. It is not often that I have mid-$6,000 players jump inside the top-10 in multiple variations of running the spreadsheet, and it is a big enough head-turner for me to take notice in all markets.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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PGA DFS Vegas Report - U.S. Open (Premium Content)


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PGA DFS: Expert Roundtable - U.S. Open

Please enjoy this PGA Premium article free for a limited time.

Hello RotoBallers and thanks for joining us for the U.S. Open! This is a new article that we're offering each week as part of our PGA Premium subscription, and we hope that you will find it useful.

Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

RotoBaller PGA Expert Roundtable

The U.S. Open

The Expert Roundtable article is an attempt to get you inside the minds of our PGA DFS staff for every tournament.

Our four top golf writers - Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Josh Bennett, and Tommy Bell - will answer the same set of questions each week to give you an idea of how they are viewing the PGA DFS slate. Let's tee it up!

 

Who is your favorite DFS value play?

  • Joe Nicely: Louis Oosthuizen ($7,600) & Brian Harman ($6,400)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Brian Harman ($6,400)
  • Josh Bennett: Matt Kuchar (7,200)
  • Tommy Bell: Paul Casey ($7,900)

 

Who is your favorite DFS “high priced” play?

  • Joe Nicely: Dustin Johnson ($11,500) & Xander Schauffele ($10,100)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Jon Rahm ($11,000)
  • Josh Bennett: Jon Rahm (11,000)
  • Tommy Bell: Justin Thomas ($10,000)

 

Who is your top GPP play?

  • Joe Nicely: Tommy Fleetwood ($8,900) & Jason Day ($8,800)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900)
  • Josh Bennett: Justin Rose (8,400)
  • Tommy Bell: Alex Noren ($7,100)

 

Who is your top Cash-Game play?

  • Joe Nicely: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,100)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Webb Simpson ($9,700)
  • Josh Bennett: Webb Simpson (9,700)
  • Tommy Bell: Tyrell Hatton ($8,100)

 

Which popular golfer will you be “fading”?

  • Joe Nicely: Justin Thomas ($10,700) - Not a total fade, but will have less exposure than the field
  • Spencer Aguiar: Collin Morikawa ($10,000)
  • Josh Bennett: Daniel Berger (9,200)
  • Tommy Bell: Webb Simpson ($9,700)

 

What stands out as the most important stat for this golf course?

  • Joe Nicely: Total Driving, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance
  • Spencer Aguiar: Total Driving, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance
  • Josh Bennett: Total Driving
  • Tommy Bell: SG: OTT, Bogey Avoidance

 

Who is your favorite DFS “dart throw”?

  • Joe Nicely: Si Woo Kim ($7,200) & Martin Kaymer ($7,100)
  • Spencer Aguiar: J.T. Poston ($6,100)
  • Josh Bennett: Joel Dahmen (6,400)
  • Tommy Bell: Kevin Na ($6,800)

 

What is your favorite bet of the week? (Any type)

  • Joe Nicely: Louis Oosthuizen (80/1)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Brian Harman T20 (6/1) 
  • Josh Bennett: Viktor Hovland (66/1)
  • Tommy Bell: Tyrell Hatton (45/1)

 

Make a “bold prediction” for this week:

  • Joe Nicely: Jason Day top-five finish
  • Spencer Aguiar: Brian Harman cracks the top-five
  • Josh Bennett: Curtis Luck finishes in the top 10
  • Tommy Bell: Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson both finish outside the Top 10

 

Who is your favorite overall DFS golfer and why?

  • Joe Nicely: Xander Schauffele ($10,100) - IT IS TIME!
  • Spencer Aguiar: Xander Schauffele ($10,100) - I believe Schauffele provides the most playability in all game types. Options like Jon Rahm, Webb Simpson and Daniel Berger would be close, but I like Xander’s overall level of consistency. 
  • Josh Bennett: Matt Kuchar (7,200) - The price is just too low for me. He will hit tons of fairways and make tons of pars. He's a much better golfer than the other players priced around him. It's my favorite play because of the value.
  • Tommy Bell: Tyrell Hatton ($8,100) - I was tempted to put Berger here, but with Hatton over a grand cheaper, he makes too much sense. We’ve seen the upside before, and while his off-the-tee game isn’t as sound as others, we’ve seen him get locked in at tough tracks before and become as fierce a competitor on Sunday as they come.

 

What is your optimal DFS lineup building strategy?

  • Joe Nicely: Don’t love the $7k range, so I find myself - surprisingly - going somewhat Stars & Scrubs. 
  • Spencer Aguiar: There is so much value from top-to-bottom. You can theoretically fit in anything you want. 
  • Josh Bennett: Balanced
  • Tommy Bell: Fairly balanced with some JT if/when I choose to spend up

 

Who is your pick to win the tournament?

  • Joe Nicely: Can we please get a DJ vs Xander vs Tony vs Morikawa four-man playoff so I’ll be happy no matter what happens? (DJ wins) 
  • Spencer Aguiar: Daniel Berger
  • Josh Bennett: Jon Rahm
  • Tommy Bell: Justin Thomas

 

Is there a question you would like to have answered every week? Hit us up on Twitter @RotoBallerPGA. We would love to hear your feedback and ideas!

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - Safeway Open

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Well, that is all she wrote for this contest, as Xander Schauffele's real-life second-place finish resulted in a first-place total for Joe at the Tour Championship. Josh and I had our chances over the weekend with Rory McIlroy and Daniel Berger, but it was not to be this season for either of us.

We are still playing this up until the Masters, but I, for one, am tipping my cap to Joe on a fabulous year and will try to make this end result as respectable as possible at this point.

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - Safeway Open

Joe Nicely - Brendan Steele

Alternate - Harold Varner III

Let’s be honest, there aren’t a lot of great options available in this Safeway field. Most of the top names are either out of form (Sergio Garcia, Jordan Spieth) or past their prime (Phil Mickelson). That leaves us with established veterans and up-and-comers. While there are several of the youngsters that I consider fine plays, I ultimately decided to go with experience and a man that’s conquered this week’s Silverado layout two times already. Brendan Steele is never a player that we want to be counting on, but here we are...

Yearly Earnings - $7,288,255

Yearly Cuts Made - 20/24

 

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Spencer Aguiar - Harold Varner III

Alternate - Shane Lowry

I've been going slightly all over the place between mixing my selections for this contest and the big one held over at a different website, but I will try to make all my choices match when possible down the stretch with Joe already having this in the bag.

The Safeway Open is a shaky field on the surface, but we do have multiple major winners to go along with a slew of young players that will be vying to get their 2021 season off to a quick start. For me, there are a few routes that make logical sense, but I will be swinging for the fence with someone who I expect to be a popular choice in Napa Valley.

On both my betting model and DFS sheet, Harold Varner III is grading out to be my most likely winner, which stems from his top-five ranking compared to the field in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained tee to green. The American has provided three top-17s at this venue over his last four tries and is the safest person I have on the board. If you are in chase mode and need to make up ground, I do believe Shane Lowry makes for an interesting pivot option.

Yearly Earnings - $4,399,787

Yearly Cuts Made - 18/24

 

Josh Bennett - Sam Burns

Alternate - Brendan Steele

I’m not sure there’s a chance to catch Joe now, but I have to make a pick here that isn’t going to be as popular and hope he picks the obvious guy(s) and they fall off. It’s pretty obvious this is my fault that Joe has this big of a lead after all the smack talk from me earlier in the season, so, sorry for that Spence.

We’ve seen in the past that there are multiple ways you can get around this course and do well. Guys like Brandt and Chez who are short and straight have great histories, as do guys like Phil and Champ who are long but wild. In situations like that, I always tend to lean towards the bomber-type of players knowing that length is always an advantage. I’m going with Burns out of the handful of guys in that category for a couple reasons. He will be one of the top five longest in the field, but the others that will keep up with his distance are nowhere near his skill in the rest of the game.

Other than a poor performance at the Northern Trust, he hadn’t had a finish worse than 32nd in five straight events that all had much stronger fields than this one. He’s been on the edge of breaking through a handful of times in his career so far and he’ll have a great chance to do that in a weak field on a course he should thrive on after a couple of weeks of rest.

Yearly Earnings - $3,748,873

Yearly Cuts Made - 20/24

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780
Tour Championship Xander Schauffele $1,665,000 Rory McIlroy $280,090 Daniel Berger $186,850

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:


Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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PGA DFS Vegas Report - Safeway Open (Premium Content)


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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - Tour Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

It was a quiet week for the crew at the BMW Championship, as I got too cute and saved Jon Rahm for the U.S. Open - despite stating he was going to win at Olympia Fields. Josh and Joe provided matching T20 paydays with Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler, but things still stand pretty much where they were entering the FedExCup playoffs.

It is going to take a strong close to the season for Josh or myself to catch Joe, who is looking powerful with a massive lead and steady player pool to boot. The move towards catching him needs to start now, and the Tour Championship is a good location to try and get started. Let's see who the guys are rolling with at East Lake.

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - Tour Championship

Joe Nicely - Xander Schauffele

Alternate - Tony Finau

We debated on how to handle this week’s Tour Championship, before eventually deciding to post our picks without using the staggered start scoring format. Some OAD contests aren’t running at all this week, while some will go with and without the stroke advantage. For those of you in contests that will be using the staggered start, I’d recommend going to JT if he’s still available to you.

As for me and our “everyone starts at Even par” format, I’ll be going with Xander Schauffele. The X-Man has been a true mutant in his previous starts at East Lake, and while his recent results haven’t been spectacular, they have been solid enough to feel like there might be something special in store for him this week.

Yearly Earnings - $5,623,255

Yearly Cuts Made - 19/23

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Joe by using promo code NICE when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

Spencer Aguiar - Rory McIlroy

Alternate - Jon Rahm

We didn't originally plan on using this event for the OAD, which is one reason my player pool is a little disjointed entering East Lake. I am aware that everyone is playing with different settings than others, and it makes it hard to recommend what route is the savviest. If your group is taking the week off, then you don't have much to think about, but there are settings that are deviating somewhere between starting score coming into play and no advantage. For the sake of this contest, we have decided that no advantage would be the plan. It just wasn't fair to make a change to anything else last minute, but it does take Jon Rahm off my board for personal reasons.

I want to emphasize that I do believe Rahm has a strong chance to take down the Tour Championship, but I am all in on this idea of dying on my sword and saving him for the U.S. Open if it is the last thing I do. I have already missed him twice at the Memorial and BMW Championship because of this strategy, and I'm not deviating now and missing out on my chance to get a missed cut with the Spaniard at Winged Foot.  If you are playing in a contest where the starting strokes matter, I'd recommend going Justin Thomas or Jon Rahm. Those two options provide you your best win equity outside of Dustin Johnson, and the advantage really can't be understated of beginning with a few shots in hand over the majority of the field.

As far as this competition is concerned, the season has been a scattered mess because of the restart, and it has really thrown a lot of my strategy for a loop. Xander Schauffele is a superb option for those that have saved him, and I do think Daniel Berger becomes an interesting choice in this setup as well. Unfortunately, those two are long gone as golfers I can take, and my vision of where to deploy Bryson DeChambeau involves a green jacket and a plethora of azaleas.

By process of elimination, new father Rory McIlroy is going to have to takes the controls in his quest to repeat at the Tour Championship. The Irishman has provided two victories at this property in his last three attempts, and it might not be a terrible situation that he gets to shoot freely with no real expectation level being seven shots back. If the Masters isn't my place for him and the WGC in China just got canceled, it is going to have to be in Atlanta that we roll out the explosive 31-year-old.

Yearly Earnings - $4,119,697

Yearly Cuts Made - 17/23

 

Josh Bennett - Daniel Berger

Alternate - Justin Thomas

The pick is real easy this week. I need the W to have a chance, and I have two people left on my board that have a shot (JT and Berger). JT obviously has the BEST shot, but Joe and I both have him left and I don’t see any reason why Joe would not pick him this week to protect his lead. So, I have to go with option number two and hope JT falls off for one week. Both Joe and Spencer have already used up Berger, so I’ll be unique for this week for sure. Unfortunately, so will Joe if he uses JT because Spencer rolled him earlier in the season. To be honest, I don’t use Berger in any format, ever, so I can’t even give great reasons for playing him other than he makes me unique and gives me my best chance to win. Going to use my “one-time” this week, I need it!

Yearly Earnings - $3,562,023

Yearly Cuts Made - 19/23

 

Running Totals

 

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:


Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


Categories
Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Xander Schauffele Has Superb History At East Lake

Xander Schauffele has to make up some room if he wants to catch the leaders at the Tour Championship, but the success he has shown at East Lake makes him a threat to get himself back into the running. The American has never finished worse than seventh place in his three tries at the property, which includes a victory in 2017. The 26-year-old is a superb player in no-cut events because of his aptitude to provide one upper-echelon round per week, and we are going to need an aberrational day or two from anyone this far down the board if they want a legitimate chance to find the winner's circle. Schauffele provides just that at his $8,900 price tag on DraftKings.

Categories
Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Will Webb Simpson's Gamble Work?

Webb Simpson doesn't look so crazy anymore after losing only one shot from skipping the BMW Championship. The extra rest could provide wonders for the 35-year-old, but he is going to need to improve his par-five scoring to catch the leaders. Simpson has become a more volatile golfer in 2020, and it might guide him to the biggest prize of the year.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Dustin Johnson Heads To Finale In Front

Dustin Johnson will begin his quest for 15 million dollars in first place when the final round of the FedExCup playoffs begins on Friday at East Lake. The American has rolled off three straight top-two results, which has helped propel him to a two-shot lead over Jon Rahm in round one. Johnson is the overwhelming favorite in Las Vegas at odds of 2/1 and carries a $15,200 price tag on DraftKings. If the top-ranked player in the world can pull off the victory, it will be the first Tour Championship title of his career.

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Tour Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! What a tournament we had at the BMW Championship, as Jon Rahm stormed his way up the leaderboard on the weekend to defeat Dustin Johnson in a playoff. It was a chaotic finish from the duo down the stretch, with the American connecting on a 43-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff - only to be outdone by Rahm, who drained a 66-footer of his own during the first hole of sudden death.

As far as DraftKings is concerned, we had some massive win totals posted by various readers of this article because of the condensed core we discussed that featured the likes of Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Kokrak and Brian Harman. Be sure to send me your winning screenshots to get featured in this article moving forward, and congratulations to everyone that hit it big last weekend in Illinois!

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Tour Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Tour Championship - PGA DFS Overview

East Lake

7,350 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

The staggered starting positions for the Tour Championship will give us a unique format to dissect, but I do think it is important to remember that players starting 10-back of the lead will have their hands full to actually capture the title. East Lake isn't a course where you can pick up strokes in bunches, which is evident by the winning score (non-bonus starting amount) typically ending at around 12 to 13-under par. Golfers beginning the event from way behind will need multiple facets to come in properly if they want to make a run for the riches, and I think it is essential to start your builds with as many players near the top as possible. That doesn't mean we won't need to connect on the lower-priced options down the board, but it does suggest that a more stars-and-scrubs nature should be taken since we need to make sure we pinpoint the winner for the finale.

East Lake is a challenging test that will make sure everyone earns their payday. The par-fours at the property are long, and it is essential to keep a clean scorecard until you have an opportunity to strike. Those edges typically come on the two par-fives - which each yield over a 40 percent birdie rate to go along with a small chance for eagle. Rory McIlroy gained nearly 53% of his scoring total at those two locations in 2019, making it a must-have place to pick up strokes on the field.

The greens feature Bermuda grass with shaved runoffs, and it will be important to miss shots in the correct quadrant. Golfers who do ultimately end up missing their targets will need to be able to gain strokes around the green, and there are 74 bunkers and six water hazards at the venue. Perhaps more so than most weeks, we also need to look at mental fortitude. With 15 million dollars on the line, there is going to be no room for error to wilt under the pressure.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Tour Championship Tour Average
Driving Distance 290 281
Driving Accuracy 54% 62%
GIR Percentage 64% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 56% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.45 0.56

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/5 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 3/1, Justin Thomas at 6/1 and Webb Simpson at 14/1. Rory McIlroy, the defending champion of this event, enters the week seven-back and at a price tag of 25/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Approach 20%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
  • Ball Striking 17.5%
  • Proximity 175+ Yards 12.5%
  • Par-Four + Bogey Avoidance 12.5%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
  • Sand Save Percentage 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($15,200)

Will Dustin Johnson be able to run and hide at East Lake? That is the question that could earn him 15 million dollars. The American doesn't have the best course history with two finishes outside the top-15 in the last five years, but he does have three top-sixes thrown into the mix. Johnson's range is wider than most consider, and while he could go wire-to-wire for a runaway victory, there are 80s in his arsenal that could ruin his chances. You have to take a stance somewhere to win these small-field events, and I'll be fading Johnson and hoping for the best.

Jon Rahm ($12,700)

A strong argument can be made that Jon Rahm possesses value at his $12,700 price tag on DraftKings. I'm much more inclined to splurge on the Spaniard at a reduction of $2,500 from DJ, and I think his upside for victory/overall level of consistency should have him in the mix late on Sunday.

Justin Thomas ($11,900)

It is the Tour Championship; let's take a firm stance in this article. Justin Thomas will be your winner of the FedExCup playoffs. Thomas starts just three shots back of Dustin Johnson and gets a $3,300 discount for his troubles on DraftKings. The American is the top-ranked player in the world when it comes to par-five scoring, and I'd expect him to make a similar move that we saw Rory McIlroy do last season of earning nearly 54% of his strokes on these more accessible holes. If he can follow that blueprint, expect Thomas to have a chance to be the man you want to own for the week.

Webb Simpson ($11,100)

Webb Simpson doesn't look so crazy anymore by only losing what amounted to one shot after skipping the BMW Championship. The extra rest could provide wonders for the 35-year-old, but he is going to need to improve his par-five scoring to catch the leaders. Simpson has become a more volatile golfer in 2020, so I am not discounting that we see him chase down the group above him and walk out of Atlanta $15,000,000 richer.

Collin Morikawa ($10,400), Bryson DeChambeau ($10,100)

We have an extremely interesting group here to wrap up the $10,000 and above range. I view both golfers as GPP-only options because of their volatility, but they provide the upside needed to catch the leaders if they can get hot. Neither is grading out as value for me on the surface, but that doesn't mean we don't see one (or both) light up Atlanta and make a run for the title.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Rory McIlroy ($9,700)

We might have to stomach the possibility that Rory McIlroy could burn us and ignore the Irishman. McIlroy has already stated that his child's birth takes top priority, and the possibility of him withdrawing from the event becomes even more amplified with him beginning the week seven shots back. The 31-year-old has name value baked into this price tag, and I'd prefer to pay incorrectly for a player like DeChambeau if I am shooting for upside.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)

I can't help but feel like Hideki Matsuyama missed his chance of ending his winless drought at the BMW Championship. The Japanese sensation looked wild off the tee over the weekend, culminating in him falling just two shots short of the playoff. The 20th-ranked player in the world will always grade out well statistically, but it is hard for me to ignore what might happen if his par saves stop dropping from six feet.

Daniel Berger ($9,100)

Daniel Berger is going to be popular. It is difficult to say how popular compared to his counterparts, but I think strong evidence states that he will be the most played option on the board. That doesn't necessarily help with deciding what to do with him for the week, but I do believe Berger will outperform his DraftKings price that ranks him as the ninth overall player. I'm not sure we ultimately get a victory out of the American, but it is tricky to ignore the rebated cost.

Xander Schauffele ($8,900)

If Daniel Berger or Dustin Johnson don't end up being the most owned golfer, my money would be on Xander Schauffele. The 26-year-old is a superb player in no-cut events because of his aptitude to usually provide one upper-echelon round per week, and we are going to need an aberrational day or two from anyone this far down the board if they want a legitimate chance to find the winner's circle. Schauffele provides just that at a reasonable cost.

Harris English ($8,700)

To me, Harris English is a cash-game only type of play. His lack of upside has reduced his salary to $8,700, but it isn't easy to be overly encouraged about his chances to generate the amount of upside needed to take down a GPP event.

Patrick Reed ($8,500)

East Lake has proven to be a headache for Patrick Reed in the past. Given a six-under start here last season, Reed only could muster a ninth-place result, and he has failed to crack the top-23 in three of his additional four starts since 2015.

Tony Finau ($8,200)

You are paying up marginally for Tony Finau's birdie-making skills and name recognition, but you won't hear any massive gripes from me if you do decide to go down this route. Finau may slip into some of my builds because of how I plan to create my core, but I do recognize that he is going to be a trendy choice.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Scottie Scheffler ($7,900)

I had Scottie Scheffler rated better before making some minor adjustments to my model, but the rookie is still grading out as someone reasonably priced on DraftKings for the Tour Championship. Scheffler's ability to score in bunches will make him a popular selection, and that is all you can ask for when trying to build a unique construction

Brendon Todd ($7,600)

I continue to be underweight to Brendon Todd because of the lack of weight I put into short game figures, and I feel as if his lack of consistency with his irons will eventually catch up to him. It might not be this weekend at East Lake, but Todd's approach numbers are virtually dead last in the field across the board from each range.

Sungjae Im ($7,300)

It is hard to be overly encouraged by the current stretch we have seen from Sungjae Im, but there is a disparity present if we decide to cling onto the lowest priced option by $1,400 of the four-under par golfers. I'm not going to have my week decided on the South Korean deciding to show up for the final event of the 2020 season, but I also don't think it hurts to sneak him into a few GPP lineups here and there.

Tyrell Hatton ($7,000)

We got our second straight quality outing from Tyrrell Hatton at the BMW Championship, who seems to be trending back towards the early-season form that saw him generate four top-sixes in four events. We aren't quite back to that level of production, but Hatton is beginning to peak again at the right time.

Kevin Kisner ($6,800)

Kevin Kisner provided his fifth straight top-25 result at the BMW Championship. That level of form shouldn't be ignored, but it will come at a cost. The American will be an extremely popular choice, and I believe his plodding nature reduces the upside some are expecting him to generate.

Viktor Hovland ($6,600)

What should we expect during Viktor Hovland's first crack at the Tour Championship? Recent form would suggest less than some might be anticipating, but the Danish golfer will get a chance to fire freely starting this event at even par. Perhaps too much of the upside is already baked into the pricing, but Hovland has the game to make birdies at will when he gets hot.

Joaquin Niemann ($6,300)

In my opinion, Joaquin Niemann is mispriced at $6,300 and should be closer to $7,000 for the event. There aren't many players in the world who can catch fire quite as well as the Chilean does, and taking the stroke advantage over some of his counterparts in this range might play a factor down the stretch.

Abraham Ancer ($6,100)

Unfortunately, Abraham Ancer's season never quite got back on track after his two-week break between the Travelers Championship and the Memorial. I don't entirely trust his around the green game to perform at the level needed to climb up the leaderboard, and I most likely will find myself underweight to the field.

Sebastian Munoz ($5,900)

Sebastian Munoz's three-under par starting total makes him a much more intriguing prospect than we would otherwise have gotten if he was starting at even-par, but I don't want to place too much value on it a number that is still seven shots off the lead. Munoz is presumably value in a vacuum, but his upside isn't enough to warrant a ton of GPP consideration. That makes me like him more for cash games, but I'm still not necessarily jumping for joy with that either.

Billy Horschel ($5,700)

Billy Horschel's second-place showing here in 2018 mixed with his current form will likely make him the most owned option under $6,000. I originally planned on the idea that the Florida native would be a possibility worth considering at the right price, but I'm not sure $5,700 is that number. Frankly, there are just choices I like better down this low, and the popularity of the 33-year-old is a bit of a turn off.

Lanto Griffin ($5,600)

It is good to see that DraftKings undervalued Lanto Griffin to end the season once again. If nothing else, they have been consistent. Griffin is the lowest priced player at two-under par by $700 under Joaquin Niemann, and while I do believe he is the weakest play of the group, he isn't as far off as some might imagine. Griffin has legitimate upside to blow past his starting price and is my biggest mispricing on the board.

Kevin Na ($5,500)

Kevin Na probably has the weakest course history of anyone that has competed in this event once since 2015. The 36-year-old has failed to crack the top-16, and his previous two showings have resulted in finishes outside the top-24.

Ryan Palmer ($5,400)

There is never a guarantee for what you will get with Ryan Palmer, but it does help the situation when you can acquire him inside the bottom 15 percent of selections on the board. Palmer has the ability to use his par-five scoring ability to make a run up the leaderboard, and I don't believe a top-15 showing is out of the cards for the Texan.

Cameron Champ ($5,300)

Which version of Cameron Champ will we get at the Tour Championship? If it is the one we got during the PGA Championship, we might be onto something at his $5,300 price tag. Champ's length could be a positive for him if he gets hot, although his shoddy around the green totals quickly start to disparage any hope of him making a run. For whatever upside you think the American might have, there is also a world where he comes in dead last for the week. The risk is up to you.

Mackenzie Hughes ($5,200)

Good on Mackenzie Hughes for his up-and-down from the bunker on the 72nd hole to qualify for the finale.  That result gives him a career-changing outcome, but I am afraid the feel-good story will end there this season.

Cameron Smith ($5,100)

If your goal is to shoot for the fence and hope for the best, Cameron Smith might be your best option under Ryan Palmer. The Aussie has yielded back-to-back top-20 results, and we do seem to be in a situation where he has done it so quietly that he will go off as one of the lowest owned plays on the board.

Marc Leishman ($5,000)

What has happened to Marc Leishman's game? Crazier things have occurred in life, but the Aussie is coming into the week after shooting a tournament-worst 30-over par at the BMW Championship. Even as contrarian as I tend to be, I can't condone going down that path with someone who is clearly struggling past the point of what is being shown on paper.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

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Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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PGA DFS Vegas Report - Tour Championship (Premium Content)


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PGA Betting Advice - Tour Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (72-38-8), netting over 41 units of profit and nearly a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 19 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and four so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection (All Plays Feature Built-In Scoring For The Tour Championship)

Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Getting a one-shot edge with Lanto Griffin over Kevin Na might not seem like a ton on the surface, but it does further amplify the advantage when I had Griffin at about -110 before the bonus. Na brings very minimal form into the week and has struggled in recent years at East Lake, failing to crack the top-25 in his previous two showings.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

The picture becomes a little better for Na when we remove current form from the equation. The American ranks inside the top-17 compared to the field in strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green and is also second in total putting. The range of outcomes will be higher for Na, but I am willing to take him on in a market that isn't properly giving its respects to Griffin.

0.80 Units to Win 0.70

 

Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horschel

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I understand the intrigue around Billy Horschel at East Lake. A second-place finish at the property in 2018 to go along with four top-25s in his past seven tournaments is no doubt impressive, but the public support has become too one-sided in the head-to-head market. I have Palmer as a very slight favorite before getting the one-stroke advantage and will take my built-in edge that is being offered.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I don't have a premium play this weekend. Palmer over Horschel would have been the favorite to fit into that slot.

0.85 Units to Win 1.20

 

Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I have Justin Thomas as my winner for the Tour Championship, so you better believe I am going to take him against a golfer that I am going to be fading for the week. The is no question that DJ is capable of walking out of East Lake with the grand prize, but it is important to remember that his range of outcomes is wider than the average tour player. We are only a few weeks removed from Johnson posting back-to-back 80s, and I am hoping the switch to Bermuda slows him down slightly since he is typically a better putter on Bent/Poa.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

We are still opposing the number one player in the world in this matchup and giving him a three-shot lead to begin the show. I can think the price is incorrect, but it is always scary to oppose Johnson when he is possessing this much form.

0.65 Units to Win 1.11

 

Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

If fading Dustin Johnson once wasn't good enough, let's go back to the well a second time. Don't get me wrong, the 36-year-old is the deserving favorite to beat Simpson, but where do we draw the line with the amount of value they are offering on the play? I could argue this is nearly 70 points too high, and Johnson's level of volatility could turn this into nearly a 50/50 proposition by the end of round one.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

Same reasons as Thomas over Johnson.

0.45 Units to Win 1.22

 

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (12-11-3)

-0.47 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
3M Open Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
PGA Championship Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Wyndham Championship Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1
Northern Trust Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 T58 (-6) T44 (-8) Loss -1.35

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

19-20-0 (+1.77 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65
Northern Trust Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T8 (-15) T49 (-7) Win 0.7
Northern Trust Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley 0.77 Units to win 0.70 MC (+8) T8 (-15) Loss -0.77
Northern Trust Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson 0.74 Units to win 0.70 MC (+3) T6 (-16) Loss -0.74

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Hideki Matsuyama BMW Championship 40 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Jon Rahm Northern Trust 16 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): BMW Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Dustin Johnson captured his 22nd victory on the PGA Tour in emphatic fashion, firing a record-setting 30-under par to win by 11 shots. Johnson's total placed him in rarified air alongside Ernie Els (-31) and Jordan Spieth (-30) as only the third golfer in PGA Tour history since 1950 to shoot a -30 or better.

I realize the American often catches a lot of flack for his inability to close out major championships, but his resume speaks for itself, which includes a U.S. Open title, five FedExCup wins, six WGC victories and a ridiculous 41% rate of finishing inside the top-10 in his grand slam events. Johnson is a first-ballot Hall of Famer for a reason, and it is about time we stop discrediting his career accomplishments because of only one major to his name.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - BMW Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

BMW Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Olympia Fields

7,343 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa Annua/Bentgrass

Olympia Fields will host their first PGA Tour event since the 2003 U.S. Open this weekend for the BMW Championship. It always makes things complicated with what to expect when we get a venue that hasn't been in the rotation for a few years, and it requires us to play a bit of a guessing game without detailed statistical data to back up our views.

However, that doesn't mean we can't deduce and anticipate what it will demand. The first thing that stuck out to me was that the course is measuring in at 7,343 yards. That might not seem like a ton on paper, but the par-70 nature of the event can quickly turn that length into a brutal test. That should signify long iron play will be at a premium, and golfers will most likely need a short game to account for the lower GIR percentage that will surely come into play from an extended distance.

I will be adding a good mixture of off the tee and approach to my weights, as well as driving statistics that I will gear more towards total driving. Harding Park seems like a reasonable corollary test for research purposes, but I wouldn't get so caught up that we last saw this property played as a major championship. The PGA Tour likes birdie fests during the playoffs, and there is no reason to believe the venue will be regulated towards trying to embarrass the last 70 players before East Lake.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Olympia Fields Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy N/A 62%
GIR Percentage N/A 65%
Scrambling Percentage N/A 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round N/A 0.56

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 10/1, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau at 14/1 and Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy at 18/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Off the Tee + Approach 20%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 15%
  • Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
  • Ball Striking 15%
  • Overall Birdie or Better 12.5%
  • Scrambling 12.5%
  • Par-Four + Bogey Avoidance 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,500)

We continue to play musical chairs at the top of the DraftKings pricing board, and it is now Dustin Johnson that will take center stage as the man to beat. The inconsistency of the pricing shows how deep the fields are nowadays, but it also proves that we don't have a player like Tiger Woods that could be counted on for a weekly top result. If Johnson is the route you want to go, you won't hear a gripe from me - although I would argue you are overpaying because of his previous two results. That doesn't make the American a bad selection; it just makes him less of a value than others.

Jon Rahm ($11,000)

I touched on this fact last week that Jon Rahm should be an $11,000 golfer weekly, and we see him move back into that territory after a sixth-place finish at the Northern Trust. The Spaniard might be the most likely man to provide you a steady result of anyone up top, and his upside for victory is there.

Justin Thomas ($10,800)

It has been a helter-skelter restart for Justin Thomas, who has provided four top-10 results and three finishes outside the top-35 in his eight starts. We always discuss how Thomas is one of the best players in the world when you give him a guaranteed four rounds, and he will get just that again at a venue that should highlight his strengths. We are grasping at straws here trying to separate the top few names, and sometimes it has to come down to which player has the best value. Thomas should theoretically be the highest priced option, which renders some value at his $10,800 tag.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,600)

I'd pump the brakes with the narrative that Bryson DeChambeau won the 2015 U.S. Amateur at this venue in 2015. Match Play is an entirely different game than what we get in stroke play competition, and while he did outlast the likes of Jon Rahm en route to the title, the word 'amateur' should mean something in describing the overall quality of the field. DeChambeau's upside is as massive as his frame to find the winner's circle once again, but I think it is essential to narrow your selection down to him for the right reasons. If you believe off the tee prowess and scoring will be the main recipe for success, DeChambeau might be your man.

Rory McIlroy ($10,300)

We are getting very close to where we will just have to close our eyes and hope for the best out of Rory McIlroy if we decide to take him. I'm not sure I am there yet at his $10,300 salary, but another questionable performance might shrink the Irishman into a range that is too difficult to ignore. As things stand, I am still playing the waiting game, but there is no arguing that McIlroy could get back on track at a venue that fits his skills.

Webb Simpson ($10,100)

Webb Simpson is my favorite DK play this week. His $10,100 price tag should keep him somewhat under the radar compared to the big boys up top, but his overall performance level weekly has turned him into one of the elite players in the game. Length off the tee will have some importance, but the core of what I expect Olympia Fields to require out of the golfers will be long iron proximity and the ability to scramble and avoid bogeys. There's a reason why this test was used as a U.S. Open venue, and even if the difficulty will be greatly subsided for the week, Simpson has become one of the best scorers in the world.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Xander Schauffele ($9,900)

All I have read so far this week is that Daniel Berger and Collin Morikawa should be priced higher than Xander Schauffele. I want to be careful in wording the stance I am about to take because I believe all three are elite talents that can win the tournament this weekend, but there is a massive difference between a 15% owned Schauffele and a potentially 35% owned Berger. Everyone always wants to discuss how great Schauffele is during no-cut events, but that narrative has been thrown out the window by some entering the BMW Championship. Look, I am not saying he necessarily posts a better result than either of the two previously mentioned golfers, but I am all about leveraging ownership when given the opportunity. None of that is to say I won't play Schauffele alongside a player like Berger in spots, but let's not forget about the 10th-ranked player altogether.

Scottie Scheffler ($9,000)

DraftKings has taken a bit more of an aggressive stance with Scottie Scheffler than the outright market, placing him 11th in DK position compared to his 14th place outright total. Honestly, both still feel like values for Scheffler after posting back-to-back fourth-place showings, and I am perfectly okay with jumping back on the bandwagon for another tournament.

Tiger Woods ($8,600)

No matter what Tiger Woods does from a tournament-by-tournament perspective, we will never get a deviation in pricing that will place him much lower than his current $8,600 salary. However, what we will get is a reduced level of interest from gamers that get tired of going back down the well and not getting a positive return on their investment. I don't often say this, but I think Woods is accurately priced for the BMW Championship at $8,600, which does provide upside if we believe we can acquire the 82-time PGA Tour winner at less than 10 percent ownership.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,500)

When we can remove the uncertainty of a missed cut and guarantee Hideki Matsuyama four rounds of golf, he is a golfer that should be priced above $9,000 every single time. Matsuyama is an elite ball-striker, and I struggle to justify him not being a top-15 priced option on the board. He makes enough birdies to usually pay off his price tag, which completely denounces the narrative that he can't win. We don't need that from him at a mid-$8,000 total.

Adam Scott ($8,200)

Adam Scott doesn't get a pass for his four-over round on Saturday at the Northern Trust because we have seen this story one too many times, but his negative-5.315 strokes on the greens was a little out of leftfield with what we have seen from him over the past year. Scott has gained strokes with his flat stick in seven of his previous 10 tournaments, and he even managed to only lose 1.9 strokes in total after his disastrous round three effort. Scott's ball-striking is there, and we could see him bounce back in a big way.

Viktor Hovland ($8,100)

It was a relatively quiet 68 and 66 from Viktor Hovland over the weekend at the Northern Trust, but it seems to have caught the attention of the DFS world. Hovland's long iron prowess and total driving skills could make him a dangerous golfer this weekend in Illinois, but there are always concerns to be had over his short game. Hovland isn't immune to a poor finish, but the upside is there for him to post a top-10 result.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Russell Henley ($7,800)

It has been a superb last two weeks for Russell Henley, who has posted back-to-back top-10 showings at the Northern Trust and Wyndham Championship. I had some concerns last weekend that the Northern Trust might be too long for his game, but he dispelled that notion with another quality ball-striking effort. I'm done questioning Henley, and his game appears to be peaking for the playoffs.

Abraham Ancer ($7,700)

I am willing to throw last week's debacle out the window for Abraham Ancer. I don't believe the 29-year-old was as bad as the stats might indicate, and it ended with him losing strokes off the tee for the first time in 11 events. I begin to worry some when the venues stretch out in length for Ancer, but it is difficult to ignore Ancer at around five percent ownership when you consider his acumen for ball striking and total driving.

Ryan Palmer ($7,600)

Make it four straight top-45 finishes from Ryan Palmer after his eighth-place showing at the Northern Trust. Palmer's lack of win equity sometimes affects his overall price tag, and I think a similar sentiment could be said in this situation. Palmer is deserving of being priced in the $8,000 range, and I will take the discount that is presented.

Jason Kokrak ($7,500)

From a pure upside perspective, Jason Kokrak is one of my favorite options on the board under $8,000. The American has provided two straight finishes inside the top-15, and he possesses the distance and ball striking game needed to make the BMW Championship the site of his first win. I am not going to go quite that far with my prediction, but I do think we can sneak in another quality finish at $7,500.

Brian Harman ($6,900)

Sure, there is no doubt that Brian Harman's around the green numbers have helped him over the last few weeks, but the 121st-ranked player in the world seems to be peaking at the right time. Harman earned strokes in all the main strokes gained stats last weekend at the Northern Trust, making it just the first time he has done that since November of 2019.

Joel Dahmen ($6,500)

Brendan Steele ($6,600) and Talor Gooch ($6,600) are two options that I do like under $7,000, but each man is projected to carry over 15% ownership for the week. For that reason, I prefer keeping them inside my cash-game range and attempting to go a little outside of the box with Joel Dahmen. The 32-year-old is grading out nearly identical for me to his two listed counterparts, and I believe his projected 10% reduction in ownership makes him a much better GPP pivot to consider.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

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PGA DFS: Expert Roundtable - BMW Championship

Please enjoy this PGA Premium article free for a limited time.

Hello RotoBallers and thanks for joining us for the BMW Championship! This is a new article that we're offering each week as part of our PGA Premium subscription, and we hope that you will find it useful.

Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

RotoBaller PGA Expert Roundtable

BMW Championship

The Expert Roundtable article is an attempt to get you inside the minds of our PGA DFS staff for every tournament.

Our four top golf writers - Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Josh Bennett, and Tommy Bell - will answer the same set of questions each week to give you an idea of how they are viewing the PGA DFS slate. Let's tee it up!

Who is your favorite DFS value play?

  • Joe Nicely: Russell Henley ($7,800) & Jason Kokrak ($7,500)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Brian Harman ($6,900), Joel Dahmen ($6,500)
  • Josh Bennett: Gary Woodland (7,800)
  • Tommy Bell: Mark Hubbard ($7,000)

 

Who is your favorite DFS “high priced” play?

  • Joe Nicely: Justin Thomas ($10,800) 
  • Spencer Aguiar: Jon Rahm ($11,000)
  • Josh Bennett: Justin Thomas (10,800)
  • Tommy Bell: Daniel Berger ($9,700)

 

Who is your top GPP play?

  • Joe Nicely: Scottie Scheffler ($9,000)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,500)
  • Josh Bennett: Patrick Cantlay (8,900)
  • Tommy Bell: Brian Harman ($6,900)

 

Who is your top Cash-Game play?

  • Joe Nicely: Harris English ($8,300)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Daniel Berger ($9,700)
  • Josh Bennett: Hideki Matsuyama (8,500)
  • Tommy Bell: Daniel Berger ($9,700)

 

Which popular golfer will you be “fading”?

  • Joe Nicely: Tyrell Hatton ($8,300)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Matthew Wolff ($8,200)
  • Josh Bennett: Daniel Berger (9,700)
  • Tommy Bell: Xander Schauffele ($9,900)

 

What stands out as the most important stat for this golf course?

  • Joe Nicely: SG:T2G, Proximity 175yds+, Par 4 Scoring (450-500yds)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Strokes Gained Tee to Green
  • Josh Bennett: Ball- Striking
  • Tommy Bell: Prox 175-200, SG Off the Tee, SG Around the Green

 

Who is your favorite DFS “dart throw”?

  • Joe Nicely: Several sub-$7k options. Brendan Steele, Talor Gooch, Joel Dahmen, & Dylan Frittelli
  • Spencer Aguiar: Joel Dahmen ($6,500)
  • Josh Bennett: Talor Gooch (6,600)
  • Tommy Bell: Joel Dahmen ($6,500)

 

What is your favorite bet of the week? (Any type)

  • Joe Nicely: * Joe left this section blank. I can only assume he will be on all the Jason Day wagers.*
  • Spencer Aguiar: Daniel Berger (22/1)
  • Josh Bennett: Hideki Matsuyama (40/1)
  • Tommy Bell: Mark Hubbard (110/1)

 

Make a “bold prediction” for this week:

  • Joe Nicely: Scheffler (33/1), Wolff (40/1), Henley (80/1) Outrights
  • Spencer Aguiar: Tiger Woods qualifies for East Lake
  • Josh Bennett: Bryson DeChambeau wins by 8
  • Tommy Bell: Daniel Berger and Tyrell Hatton lose in a playoff to Mark Hubbard on a 30-foot, walk-off birdie putt

 

Who is your favorite overall DFS golfer and why?

  • Joe Nicely: Daniel Berger ($9,700) - The definition of consistency throughout the year and especially post-layoff. Love his complete T2G game. 
  • Spencer Aguiar: Hideki Matsuyama (8,500) - We are starting to get carried away with Hideki Matsuyama’s price decrease. The 28-year-old is one of the best iron players in the world and should thrive at a tournament where he is guaranteed four rounds. 
  • Josh Bennett: Hideki Matsuyama (8,500) - Same story for me as last week with a price decrease. He is underpriced in a stacked field and one of the best iron players in the field. A decent week of putting and he will crush for his price
  • Tommy Bell: Mark Hubbard ($7,000) - Love everything about his game right now and how he sets up for this course. Also, his price makes everything else fit. I have A LOT of Marky Mark.

 

What is your optimal DFS lineup building strategy?

  • Joe Nicely: Balanced, but also very comfortable dropping below $7k 
  • Spencer Aguiar: Not a huge fan of dropping below $6,500 in salary this week. Fine with any build you can make from above that.
  • Josh Bennett: Balanced
  • Tommy Bell: As stars-scrubsy as I’ll ever get

 

Who is your pick to win the tournament?

  • Joe Nicely: Jason Day (Seriously though...Scottie Scheffler)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Jon Rahm
  • Josh Bennett: Justin Thomas
  • Tommy Bell: Daniel Berger

 

Is there a question you would like to have answered every week? Hit us up on Twitter @RotoBallerPGA. We would love to hear your feedback and ideas!

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:


Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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PGA DFS Vegas Report - BMW Championship (Premium Content)


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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Jason Day Comes Into Illinois As A Forgotten Option

It was a miserable display last weekend for Jason Day at the Northern Trust, as he imploded on Friday with a paltry 75 to miss the cut. For DFS gamers, Day's performance was a lineup killer, as the Aussie was one of the highest-owned players for the event. It will be interesting to see what percentage of users are willing to go back to the 35th-ranked player in the world for the BMW Championship, but current projections have Day as being one of the lowest-owned players above $9,000. There is GPP appeal here for those that are willing to forget about his iron trouble last week, although how much of the risk you are willing to stomach is up to you.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Patrick Cantlay Continues To Struggle

Patrick Cantlay put together his fourth straight finish outside the top 30 last weekend at the Northern Trust, this time missing the cut along the way. Cantlay has struggled during the restart, with only one top-10 finish in his six starts, but we wouldn't count him out in Illinois. The American is one of the best players in the world when it comes to ball-striking, and we don't believe his form is quite as bad as it may look on paper. Cantlay should generate under 10 percent ownership on DraftKings, which does make him a GPP option to consider in spots.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Xander Schauffele Is Ready For Olympia Fields

After providing six straight top-25 showings since the Travelers Championship, Xander Schauffele will look to keep the momentum rolling this weekend in Illinois. Schauffele's game is an ideal fit to find success at a narrow and difficult test that will be Olympia Fields, and his superb greens in regulation percentage should make him one of the favorites to take home the title. Schauffele ($9,900) will be a popular selection at nearly 20% projected ownership on DraftKings, but Daniel Berger ($9,700) and Collin Morikawa ($9,500) should reduce some of the popularity for him at the BMW Championship, making him a high upside/high floor play.