King's Classic - Industry Expert Drafts Analysis

This weekend saw the fantasy football world converge on the football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio, for the inaugural King’s Classic. Thanks to Bob Lung and Brad Evans (among many others), we had 24 sites represented between two divisions -- Brown and Blanda, named for the first two players taken in the first ever fantasy football draft back in 1963 -- with each undertaking both a snake and auction draft for a truly fantasy-filled Saturday. Let it be known that Blanda was taken first and is therefore the superior division!

I started my fantasy writing career roughly three years ago with the hopes of one day being invited to a Tout Wars/LABR-style draft with the best and brightest. I did not think it would happen this quickly and I definitely didn’t think it would be held at the Hall of Fame!

But you’re not here for all of my personal reflections -- I’ll save that for my diary -- so let’s get into how the drafts went.

Blanda Division - Snake

First, because we're all impatient and want a nice reference table, here's the draft board (shoutout to FFB_247 for the draft kit and RotoWear for the t-shirts):

Yup, it’s a snake. That means you need to unhinge from worrying about ADP if you have a guy that you want, especially if you pick near the turn. I had the great fortune of drafting alongside fellow RotoBaller Josh Hayes, the esteemed SiriusXM radio man and all-around fine fellow. Two minds are better than one, after all. How’d we do from the three spot?

The draft opened in traditional fashion, with the “big four” RB class of Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott going 1-4, respectively. I have to think Brandon Funston wasn’t expecting Antonio Brown to fall to the seven pick, but that’s a lovely sight. I loved the way Colby Conway and FantasyMojo attacked the edges from the 11 and 12 slots, with Colby getting three stud WRs to open and Mojo grabbing Kareem Hunt and CMC at the Round 1-2 bend. Once again, they’d have 20 picks go between picks, so get your guy.

We were fully prepared to select Rob Gronkowski in the second round, but Chris Prince sniped us, so we went with A.J. Green to lock in a WR1. I don’t like Andy Dalton any more than you do, but Green remains a volume monster and if Joe Mixon hits (as Mike Tagliere is hoping) then AJG should benefit from a more potent O and increased red-zone visits.

After passing on Jerick McKinnon for Kenyan Drake in the third, we decided to zig for TE/QB at our 4-5 turn, going Zach Ertz and Aaron Rodgers. No one wants to be the first to take a QB, but Rodgers remains on another level in terms of consistency and we believed that was the +EV move rather than grabbing Chris Hogan or Allen Robinson as our WR2. Nabbing only three RB/WRs in the first five rounds can be tricky, especially in such a sharp room, but we trusted the depth at WR to bring us back later.

I should also state that 5-of-12 teams drafted two QBs, which leaves me a tad confused. I wager those will be the guys dropped when a strong waiver add presents itself and prefer to just grab the RB/WR/TE flier upfront.

Those looking to me for Penny should tweet at Mr. Hayes, I can’t claim the credit if it goes right. That’s his guy and I respect where flags are planted. Then we scooped some reliable guys in Pierre Garcon and Devin Funchess. Funchess would later be the butt of several jokes, but I trust him to be a serviceable WR3 even with Greg Olsen active. Many will roll eyes at Jordy Nelson in the ninth, but we didn’t want to tangle with other WRs in that band and I feel validated that ESPN’s Mike Clay selected him in the 10th over in the Brown Division.

Even more eyes will roll regarding Kelvin Benjamin, but he was the last true No. 1 WR and the 11th round is far too discounted for that (he went at the end of the 9th in Brown). I readily concede that the next ~10 wideouts to go were more exciting, but the Bills should wind up with a ton of ugly garbage-time stats. I was ready to pencil in Geronimo Allison in the 12th, but Tags coupled him with Anthony Miller for one of the best late-round 1-2 punches I saw. Instead, we’ll hope that Dede Westbrook and the underrated Paul Richardson can blossom in ‘18. LeGarrette Blount offers some goal-line upside, which is more than I can say about any other RBs left.

Then instead of waiting until everyone else had selected a defense by virtue of the snake, we got out and took the Ravens in the penultimate round since they’ll be my No. 1 defense in Week 1 as they host the Bills. Seven of the next nine picks were defenses, which shows just how you have to play the snake for what it is. Chase Edmonds, the handcuff to first-rounder David Johnson, was our last pick -- one round after Malcolm Brown and James Connor went.

Blanda Division - Auction

With all due respect, you’re cuckoo if you don’t recognize that auctions are far superior to snakes. And while no two snakes will be the same, let these two auctions underscore how nomination order and a wider range of possibilities per pick (read: all players) allow for greater variation. Auction results are viewed easiest on the Google doc.

Our draft led off with Saquon Barkley for $47, which serves as our first price point. You should be able to gather the bidding temperature of the room quickly -- are folks aggressive, passive, or just right? If your room is wise on tiers then beware the bottleneck effect, where the last man standing in a certain tier will likely go for more. We snagged Christian McCaffrey with the second pick at $37, and later got Devonta Freeman for $30 when only he and Jordan Howard remained in our second tier, and JoHo went four picks later for $37.

We nominated next in the third slot -- mirroring the snake draft order -- and decided to throw our defensive dart. We weren’t going to spend more than $1 on anyone and didn’t want to play Baltimore in both leagues, so we pivoted to Detroit since they host the Jets. It went through, and then roughly 15 picks later Jacksonville went for $4. Three other defenses went for $2 (Minnesota, LA Rams, Philly), which just isn’t our style.

After nine RBs (and our D) were off the board, Antonio Brown at $58 kicked off a little WR run. I fear Julio Jones at $45 to Funston was way too cheap, especially after DeAndre Hopkins went for $55 a few picks later. Alas, you cannot get hung up on one pick and let that derail your evaluations. Nor should anyone truly be undraftable.

I don’t love Brandin Cooks, but his nomination after AB, Diggs, Jones, Hill, and Hopkins had just gone left many uninspired. I valued him at $18, ranked behind Juju Smith-Schuster, Jarvis Landry and Marvin Jones (who all went for $18-20), so when the room went quiet at $13 then I piped up for $14 and secured our first WR. 

Tight end remains a clear boom-bust position, with an elite top three that you’d love to have before a band full of modest upside and reliability stand before several late-round fliers. It wasn’t our plan to get both Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz, but I must say it’s pretty.

To be clear, Kelce at $24 was the plan. Then with some undervalued guys in hand and a $15 buy within our budget-per-slot layout, Ertz stood as my highest-rated player left. I doubt Dallas Goedert steps in and replicates Trey Burton’s 2017, which could help offset some TD regression. Ertz and Kelce were two of three TEs with over 55 yards per game in ‘18, giving us great flex production and a potential trade chip.

We also had the rare opportunity to draft with everyone just hours earlier, which offers a hint of insight as to general interest. We knew Seattle’s backfield drew nearly zero love, so we set aside roughly $20 to secure both Penny and Carson. We threw out Penny with our seventh nomination (87th overall) and got him for $7, then nominated and won Carson next for $8. We had secured Seattle’s RB stable for a measly $15. Fist bumps were had. This also inspired our firing our last double-digit bullet at Robert Woods ($11) to pair him with Cooks.

Much to our dismay, waiting on QBs did not work out. It seemed as though everyone was bearish on the position -- only three guys went for over $10! Russell Wilson went for just $9, Cam Newton $7 and Drew Brees for $5. Jimmy Garoppolo was bid up to $2, as was Matt Ryan and Marcus Mariota. Eight teams had drafted two signal-callers before we had one. Perhaps we should’ve realized that tendency from the snake beforehand, but man. Hopefully, Derek Carr or Eli Manning steps up! My money’s on Manning.

Pictured now is a glimpse into the future: Let's look at Week 17 🙂

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