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Hi RotoBallers and welcome to Power Pivots! In this article we'll discuss some players that are currently projected to be popular (Chalk) options in this week's DraftKings PGA tournaments and highlight some pivot options that will come with less ownership.
All DraftKings PGA DFS ownership projections for this week are courtesy of our partners over at Fantasy National and are always subject to change as the week progresses. OK, let's tee it up!
Sentry Tournament of Champions Notes
This is an exclusive, winners-only event. There is no cut this week and with a very small field we can't really expect anyone to go truly overlooked in this tournament. It does appear as though players making their TOC debuts are trending at lower ownership clips than those with some history at Kapalua, with ownership projections pointing strongly toward lots of "Stars & Scrubs" builds.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
The Chalk: Justin Thomas / The Pivot: Xander Schauffele
$11,200 - Projected Ownership: 40.9% / $10,600 - Projected Ownership: 24.3%
This is a unique week. With such a limited field, basically every player is going to garner some notable level of ownership. That said, the current ownership projections show that the top of the salary scale is going to be extremely popular, with Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas - the two most expensive players on the board - expected to be the two most popular plays.
This is a direct result of sharp DFS players taking advantage of the no-cut nature of this tournament and taking an "Ultra Stars & Scrubs" approach to lineup construction. While JT and Rahm are both great plays, we can gain a bit of leverage on this week's GPP fields by leaning with a more balanced-type build.
Xander Schauffele at $10.6k is a great place to start our lineup construction. Schauffele is the defending Sentry TOC champion, so we know he's very comfortable with this Plantation Course layout. In addition to his performance here last year, we should also take note of his great track record in these type of limited field, no-cut events.
Schauffele has four career wins on the PGA Tour with three of them coming in these type of tournaments: last year's Sentry TOC, the 2018 WGC-HSBC Champions, and the 2017 TOUR Championship. The X-Man has played a limited schedule this winter, but has been sharp in all of those starts, losing at this year's WGC-HSBC in a playoff, in addition to logging T10's at both the ZOZO and the Hero.
The Chalk: Corey Conners / The Pivot: Cameron Champ
$7,800 - Projected Ownership: 29.9% / $8,200 - Projected Ownership: 14.9%
I get the Corey Conners love, I really do. The dude is a ball-striking machine and has been in fine form as of late. However, the Canadian is going to be super popular this week at just $7.8k, which makes him a prime candidate to fade in large-field GPPs.
Cameron Champ is currently projected to garner around half the ownership of Conners this week and is a very intriguing pivot option. Champ has had an interesting journey within the DFS community, as he became "the next big thing" that people couldn't wait to roster at the tail end of 2018, before becoming radioactive to DFS players throughout the year in 2019. His fall in popularity was warranted, as Champ capital-S struggled last season, making just 14 of 26 cuts. He finished 142nd in SG: T2G in 2019 despite ranking sixth in SG: OTT and looked totally lost at times.
However, like life in Jurassic Park, talent finds a way on the PGA Tour, and Champ emerged from his summer funk to win the Safeway Open at the end of September. Now he heads to a Kapalua layout on which he has a bit of experience (T11 in last year's Sentry TOC) and that will allow him to bomb away off the tee and attack the multiple par-5s. Champ is without a doubt volatile, but that's something we must be willing to embrace in this situation. I love his upside this week.
The Chalk: Sebastian Munoz / The Pivot: Keith Mitchell
$7,100 - Projected Ownership: 29.5% / $7,000 - Projected Ownership: 14.1%
Folks are gravitating to Sebasitan Munoz and his dirt-cheap price tag. It's understandable, as Munoz has been on fire in the Swing Season, logging a win at Sanderson Farms and two additional top-10s. He's currently projected at almost 30% ownership and I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in even higher than that, which makes him an interesting ownership-motivated fade.
Does anybody remember Keith Mitchell? If any of you regularly make First-Round-Leader wagers, then you know that 'Killa Keith' is a Thursday legend. My man finally held it together for 72-holes at the Honda Classic last season to pick up his first career win. Unfortunately, Mitchell then staggered through the rest of the year in a post-win fog. Despite the form, I'm really interested in him this week for a couple of reasons...Kapalua's wide fairways that will allow Mitchell to bomb away and, perhaps more importantly, Mitchell will be back on his beloved Bermuda greens.
His putting splits illustrate a sharp contrast between surface types: -.70 on Poa, -.50 on Bent, and -.09 on Bermuda. These conditions, combined with the fact that Mitchell is an explosive scorer that ranked third on the PGA Tour in Total Eagles last year, puts him squarely in GPP consideration this week.
