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Let's wrap up June with some style, RotoBallers, and dive right into an updated edition of my top-101 starting pitcher rankings for rest-of-season values. I know the season had a bit of a delayed start but July is always a sweet halfway checkpoint to assess your needs. To help y'all, I've got you covered with ranks, tiers, trends, and notes with the top-101 in a table with other fun things like earned value via Fangraphs. It's time for another edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
This google sheet accompanies the table below and adds relevant 5x5 stats, K%, BB%, BABIP, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ERA-FIP, and CSW% from the last 30 days. I highly encourage you to click the sheet.
As is tradition, these fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues. Injured pitchers are not included in this edition. Without further ado, here's my top-101 SP for the rest of 2022!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Brandon Woodruff is back and better than ever, as the ace struck out 10 Rays over five frames. Now, we hold our breath that the Reynaud’s syndrome finger numbness doesn’t crop up again but boy, that feels good to see. The good times should keep rolling with a matchup against Pittsburgh scheduled for Woodruff’s next start.
-Lance Lynn has had a rough go since returning, posting a 6.19 ERA/1.44 WHIP, but he’s rocking a 17/3 K/BB ratio with a 3.32 SIERA. If you buy into that and trust that he won’t allow a home run in every single start then perhaps make an inquiry to the Lynn team in your league. It’s a bit odd considering the low 30% fly-ball rate (43% in 2020-21) but the 20% HR/FB rate is double his career mark. Stuff happens. For what it’s worth, he allowed 18 homers across 28 outings last season. His 52.9% strand rate is way below the career 75.7% mark. I’m not panicking and have sent a few offers.
-Carlos Carrasco has been crushed by Houston in back-to-back starts but has also allowed seven homers in his last four starts. He’d yielded only three total home runs over his first 11 starts combined! Even on a poor Tuesday for Carrasco, he at least showed his usual velocity after a dip on June 22, when his four-seamer averaged 92.2 MPH (down from 93.8 MPH in the previous game).
-MacKenzie Gore must just fear the Rockies, as he settled down with five innings of shutout ball against the Phillies after back-to-back clubbings by Colorado. Unfortunately, the average exit velo versus PHI was up at 93.5 MPH (his third-highest mark this year) and he walked four again. That’s twice in his last three outings, giving him 11 walks to just eight strikeouts in that window. I forgive a bit because one Coors start throws most arms off, but 19 walks in his last six starts after only nine in his first six is troubling.
-Spencer Strider flexed his upside on Sunday night against the Dodgers for a national audience to take in. Over the last month, Strider’s 34.1% strikeout rate ranked sixth-highest among starting pitchers. I know some may have cooled after he suffered. That gem against the Dodgers was also his first start with zero walks.
-Roansy Contreras is another young arm who is starting to see command slip as batters adjust. While Contreras has held opponents down with a 2.60 ERA through seven starts, he has a 4.25 FIP and 4.53 xFIP in that same window. He had a 23/6 K/BB ratio in the first four of those games, but the last three contests have yielded a 9/10 K/BB. It’s not what you want. He’ll have to prove he can keep attacking hitters if he wants to avoid falling into the streamer tiers.
-Graham Ashcraft leaned hard on his cutter to great success on June 24 at San Francisco. Throwing it two-thirds of the time, Ashcraft held SF to two runs over eight stellar innings with eight strikeouts and zero walks. The rookie got six punchouts with the cutter, which showed renewed life after a slight velo dip in his previous two starts. Those last two starts saw him get tagged for 10 runs over 9 ⅔ IP with the cutter sitting around 96 MPH, but San Francisco ate a cutter that averaged 98 MPH.
-Michael Lorenzen polished off his May with three straight quality starts to cap off a strong month where he hadn’t walked more than two batters in any of his five outings. However, he’s already walked three or more in three of four June starts thus far. After posting a .267 OBP in April and a .289 OBP in May, Lorenzen has allowed a .381 OBP in June alongside the 6.75 ERA. According to Baseball Savant, Lorenzen has eased off of his sinker, going from 31.6% in May to 16.9% in June, with a rise in four-seam fastballs (18.7% to 26.1%) as the counterweight. After hitters had only mustered three hits on 140 four-seamers thrown between April-May, they’ve laced nine hits off of 99 four-seamers in June. This is not the advised usage!
-Devin Smeltzer followed up six scoreless frames against the Guardians on June 23 with a season-high nine strikeouts on June 28. The 26-year-old allowed one run on four hits scattered across six innings to lower his ERA to 2.86 on the year. He’d struck out more than four in a start just once over his prior eight outings and is not that guy, instead being a reliable command guy that induces crummy contact. But we’ll take it! That makes three wins and three QS in his last four starts, including two straight now with zero walks. He’s worth a stash against other fallers.
-Ian Anderson has seen his performance slide as the season wears on and I’d be shocked if he keeps his rotation slot once Mike Soroka is healthy. Heck, Kyle Muller has been doing well at Triple-A and could take Anderson’s spot at any time. Anderson has allowed 15 runs with 13 walks in 26 ⅔ IP in June, yielding a .301/.381/.437 slash line overall. There is some poor luck involved, as his .389 BABIP in June has a 3.99 FIP behind it but the 11% walk rate is too much for me. He doesn’t have the elite strikeouts to balance such high walks. Small-sample bettors can note a 3.55 ERA and 40/18 K/BB ratio on the road (45 ⅔ IP) versus the 6.28 ERA and 25/18 K/BB at home. On the whole, he’s not worth your troubles in fantasy formats.
Top-101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball
These are rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings for starting pitchers.
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | EV | $ | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 0 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 1 | $8.5 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 0.0 ▬ | 3 Ace starts in a row, PIT next |
| 0 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 2 | $4.6 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Bankable IP keeps him at No. 2 |
| 0 | 1 | Shane McClanahan | 3 | $8.6 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ | 9 straight QS, mythical run; workload down stretch? |
| 0 | 2 | Joe Musgrove | 4 | $5.7 | 41.0 | 41.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Unraveled late v. PHI and LAD next |
| 0 | 2 | Sandy Alcantara | 5 | $13.2 | 38.0 | 38.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Even his bad start had 0.86 WHIP |
| 0 | 2 | Zack Wheeler | 6 | $8.5 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 2 | Justin Verlander | 7 | $3.4 | 35.0 | 34.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Strong rebound at NYY |
| 0 | 3 | Alek Manoah | 8 | $6.8 | 33.0 | 32.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 3 | Max Fried | 9 | $9.7 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 3 | Aaron Nola | 10 | $12.2 | 31.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 0 | 3 | Carlos Rodon | 11 | $7.7 | 31.0 | 29.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 3 | Kevin Gausman | 12 | $7.3 | 30.5 | 29.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Great outing after 5 straight of 1.40+ WHIP |
| 0 | 3 | Shane Bieber | 13 | $9.6 | 28.0 | 26.0 | 2.0 ▲ | 3 QS in tough stretch (at COL, LAD, BOS) |
| 0 | 3 | Frankie Montas | 14 | $4.4 | 25.0 | 23.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 0 | 3 | Shohei Ohtani | 15 | $4.0 | 24.0 | 23.0 | 1.0 ▲ | 3 straight gems (W+QS) after some turbulence |
| 0 | 3 | Logan Webb | 16 | $6.2 | 24.0 | 22.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| N/A | 3 | Brandon Woodruff | 17 | $0.1 | 23.0 | N/A | N/A | Electric 10 Ks in return |
| 1 | 3 | Julio Urias | 18 | $3.8 | 22.0 | 20.0 | 2.0 ▲ | 25 K in last 18 IP, nice surge |
| 2 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 19 | $9.7 | 22.0 | 20.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Back to pounding zone, 24 K in last 13 IP! |
| -3 | 4 | Lance Lynn | 20 | $1.1 | 21.0 | 22.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -1 | 4 | Luis Severino | 21 | $3.2 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 ▬ | 37.6% K rate highest for SP in last 30 |
| -4 | 4 | Nestor Cortes | 22 | $1.4 | 19.5 | 20.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 0 | 4 | Clayton Kershaw | 23 | $3.0 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Tough Coors turn...Coors |
| -2 | 4 | Lucas Giolito | 24 | -$2.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Settled after early bump at LAA for QS |
| -1 | 4 | Logan Gilbert | 25 | $6.6 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 ▬ | QS streak snapped at 7, but OAK next |
| -1 | 4 | Yu Darvish | 26 | $7.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 4 | Chris Bassitt | 27 | $6.1 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 0.0 ▬ | .460 SLG against in May, .362 in June |
| 1 | 5 | Luis Castillo | 28 | $4.9 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 5 | Framber Valdez | 29 | $4.3 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 3 | 5 | Tony Gonsolin | 30 | $5.9 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 6 | 5 | Shane Baz | 31 | $0.6 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| -5 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 32 | $1.5 | 15.0 | 17.5 | -2.5 ▼ | |
| 1 | 5 | Sean Manaea | 33 | $2.6 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -3 | 5 | Zac Gallen | 34 | $0.4 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 5 | Charlie Morton | 35 | $3.3 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 1.5 ▲ | Sick 37.5% K rate in last 30 |
| -6 | 5 | Tarik Skubal | 36 | $2.9 | 14.0 | 15.0 | -1.0 ▼ | Crushed in 3 straight, 15 ER |
| -9 | 5 | Kyle Wright | 37 | $5.6 | 14.0 | 16.0 | -2.0 ▼ | 2 straight rough turns w/ 2.00 WHIP |
| -3 | 5 | Michael Kopech | 38 | -$0.3 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 5 | Sonny Gray | 39 | $5.5 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -2 | 6 | Jose Berrios | 40 | -$3.7 | 11.5 | 12.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 0 | 6 | Luis Garcia | 41 | $2.9 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 6 | 6 | Cristian Javier | 42 | $6.6 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 2.0 ▲ | No-hit NYY w/ big Ks, please stay in rotation |
| 3 | 6 | Robbie Ray | 43 | $1.6 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 1 | 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 44 | $4.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 ▬ | 2 flops against TB, OAK after 5-QS streak |
| -5 | 6 | Joe Ryan | 45 | -$0.5 | 10.0 | 12.0 | -2.0 ▼ | |
| -2 | 6 | Alex Cobb | 46 | $0.6 | 9.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 0 | 6 | Mike Clevinger | 47 | -$0.3 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 6 | Tyler Mahle | 48 | $10.5 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 0.5 ▲ | We pray for a trade at the deadline |
| 5 | 6 | Nick Pivetta | 49 | $8.1 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -7 | 6 | Carlos Carrasco | 50 | $1.3 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 0 | 6 | MacKenzie Gore | 51 | $0.7 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 6 | Jameson Taillon | 52 | $6.2 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 8 | 6 | Spencer Strider | 53 | $6.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 ▲ | |
| -4 | 7 | George Kirby | 54 | -$1.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 0 | 7 | Tyler Anderson | 55 | $5.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -4 | 7 | Triston McKenzie | 56 | -$2.5 | 8.0 | 8.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 3.0 | 7 | Adam Wainwright | 57 | $8.6 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 58 | $2.8 | 7.0 | 7.5 | -0.5 ▼ | Born with 80 pitches by 4th inning |
| -1 | 7 | Roansy Contreras | 59 | $2.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -1 | 7 | Eric Lauer | 60 | -$4.4 | 5.5 | 6.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 1 | 7 | Martin Perez | 61 | $7.3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 7 | Noah Syndergaard | 62 | $3.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 ▲ | 5+ Ks in last three starts (only 1 QS/W) |
| 3 | 8 | Alex Wood | 63 | $3.4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 8 | Josiah Gray | 64 | $4.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | 4 ER in last 5 gms, hit 9 K twice within that |
| 3 | 8 | Jeffrey Springs | 65 | $2.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 8 | Jon Gray | 66 | $4.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 8 | Hunter Greene | 67 | $3.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 3 | 8 | Miles Mikolas | 68 | $4.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Two 9-K games in last 4, all QS |
| 4 | 8 | Jose Urquidy | 69 | -$0.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Lesser K's but helping ratios |
| -5 | 8 | Blake Snell | 70 | $4.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -7 | 8 | Paul Blackburn | 71 | $0.1 | 4.0 | 4.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 2 | 9 | Brady Singer | 72 | $0.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 9 | Zach Eflin | 73 | $0.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 4 | 9 | Kyle Gibson | 74 | $1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 5 | 9 | Taijuan Walker | 75 | $8.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 5 | 9 | Graham Ashcraft | 76 | $5.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Strikeout breakthrough w/ 8 K at SF |
| 2 | 9 | Cal Quantrill | 77 | $0.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -6 | 9 | Michael Lorenzen | 78 | $3.6 | 2.0 | 3.5 | -1.5 ▼ | No command of late, few Ks to compensate |
| -3 | 9 | Anthony DeSclafani | 79 | -$1.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | .478 BABIP early on, rusty command |
| 2 | 9 | Michael Wacha | 80 | $4.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 9 | Corey Kluber | 81 | $6.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 7 | 9 | Tyler Wells | 82 | $3.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 12 | 9 | Devin Smeltzer | 83 | -$1.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 7 | 9 | Ross Stripling | 84 | $8.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 10 | Chris Flexen | 85 | $5.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -9 | 10 | Trevor Rogers | 86 | -$0.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | -1.5 ▼ | Stash if you can wait but otherwise, cut |
| 0 | 10 | Ranger Suarez | 87 | $3.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 10 | Keegan Thompson | 88 | -$0.1 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | 12 IP, 1 ER, 16 K in last 2 starts |
| N/A | 10 | Aaron Civale | 89 | $1.9 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| -5 | 11 | Jose Quintana | 90 | $2.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 2 | 10 | Dane Dunning | 91 | $2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 10 | Kyle Hendricks | 92 | $4.2 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 11 | German Marquez | 93 | $0.3 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | 3 QS/W in last 4, all road starts |
| 2 | 11 | Dakota Hudson | 94 | $2.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 11 | Johnny Cueto | 95 | $2.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -8 | 11 | Ian Anderson | 96 | $0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Horrid 1.45 WHIP, Soroka to take spot? |
| 1 | 11 | Zach Davies | 97 | $7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 11 | Marco Gonzales | 98 | $0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | QS or W in 8 of last 9; OAK next |
| 0.0 ▬ | 11 | Merrill Kelly | 99 | $4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1.0 ▲ | 11 | David Peterson | 100 | $1.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 11 | Josh Winder | 101 | N/A | 1.0 | N/A | N/A |
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