RADIO
Welcome to the middle of May, where all of those small-sample thoughts start to turn into "well, it's been a month" trends as we gaze once more into my weekly-updated top-101 starting pitcher rankings - looking at rest-of-season values. RotoBallers can once again peruse my notes regarding key movers and then scroll through the top-101 in a table with tiers, ranks, earned value via Fangraphs, and even more notes! Let's hit another edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
This google sheet accompanies the table below and adds relevant 5x5 stats, K%, BB%, BABIP, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ERA-FIP, and CSW% from 2022. Do note that I leave off injured players, but for now, I will include them at the bottom with a rank of where they'd appear when healthy. I highly encourage you to click the link. CLICK IT!
As is tradition, these fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues and focus on healthy players. If 25% of the board is on the IL, then that doesn't help anyone. Let's jump right into the week's top-101 SP!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
-Brandon Woodruff is testing your patience early, I know. His curveball is getting smoked, his heater isn’t putting as many hitters away, and his effectiveness has waved in the process. Consider that last year his curve had a .140 batting average against (.184 xBA, .277 xSLG), and that’s come out in ‘22 with a .571 average against (.450 xBA, .994 xSLG). You can scoff at the small sample size given only seven batted-ball events on the curve in ‘22, but the one home run allowed here matches the total across 64 BBE and 468 curves thrown in ‘21. The two doubles in ‘22 are already half of the amount from ‘21. The spin rate is down roughly 100 rpm, so perhaps he needs to hit the workshop with the hook. I’ll be keeping my eyes on that pitch specifically moving forward.
-Shane Bieber is still experiencing a drop in velocity, averaging only 90.6 mph on his four-seamer after sitting 93-94 in 2018-20 before last year’s injury. And within 2022’s alarming window, it hit new lows in his most recent start. On May 7, Bieber’s average fastball velocity was 89.9 mph and his other pitches also dropped in tandem. Toronto punished him for it, tagging him for seven runs on eight hits and three walks across 3 ⅓ IP. The biggest yikes is that he logged zero strikeouts. He needs to rebound on May 13 at Minnesota or else an IL stint feels inevitable.
-Michael Kopech provides us with some positivity, as the youngster worked around poor defense to ride six innings without an earned run in what should’ve been his first win of 2022. Alas, the White Sox would blow the game and lose 12-9 in dramatic fashion, but that doesn’t erase Kopech lowering his ERA to 0.93 and his WHIP to 0.97 on the night. I am a happy clam regarding Kopech, but we must acknowledge that his low .214 BABIP is tied to a fly-ball approach (52.9%). That’s all well and good (unless the fly is hit to a subpar outfielder) except it doesn’t mesh with that 0.00 HR/9 holding up. The ball won’t stay dead forever! Not that you’re expecting a sub-1.00 ERA, and he does carry a 2.46 FIP thus far, but don’t be shocked at a few speed bumps in the near future.
-Luis Castillo made his 2022 debut on Monday and held Milwaukee scoreless through three innings until a two-RBI double from future NL MVP Rowdy Tellez. He would also surrender a home run to Omar Narvaez in the fifth for an overall line of 4 ⅔ IP: 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K on 87 pitches. And now we must wonder how much of his fastball velocity hovering around 95 mph is general rust versus a long-term issue tied to the shoulder injury. His fastball and sinker usually clock in around 97 mph from 2021 data and we’ll want to see that moving forward. The same can be said for Mike Clevinger, who averaged 93.5 after being a 95-mph guy before TJS. This is not meant to be a panic button, merely raising the point that you need to monitor this.
-George Kirby is not Matt Brash, so don’t go viewing him the same just because they’re both young arms on the Mariners. Brash has incredible movement but an inconsistent command of the arsenal, while Kirby threw 59% four-seamers in his debut, leaning on his slider 25% of the time to mix things up. He also has a changeup (10%) and a curveball in the back pocket, but the fastball-slider combo does the heavy lifting. Also note that 38-of-48 fastballs went against lefties and were responsible for six of his seven strikeouts, while the slider is used more against right-handed bats. The 24-year-old had a 1.82 ERA/0.89 WHIP with 32 strikeouts in 24 ⅔ IP at Double-A this year prior to the call-up and is worth an add in all formats.
-Josh Winder is another intriguing young arm that I’m fortunate enough to have on a few Draft Champions squads. His development was slowed by a right shoulder impingement in late 2021 but he’s made the most of an early opportunity in the bigs via injuries to Sonny Gray and now Chris Paddack. Winder’s enjoyed some good luck (.182 BABIP) but has carried over a track record of plus control in the minors to the majors. If the walk rate stays near 5%, then even some normal batted-ball luck shouldn’t be a backbreaker. With a slider-first approach that he can command, give Winder a long look in deeper formats.
**Max Meyer better get called up soon to take Elieser Hernandez's rotation slot, even though it'll probably go to Edward Cabrera first. Alas, we hold out hope. Grayson Rodriguez too, while we're at it.
Top-101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball
These are rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings for starting pitchers.
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | EV | $ | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 0 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 1 | $6.4 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 1 | Max Scherzer | 2 | $6.4 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 3 | $3.8 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 2 | Walker Buehler | 4 | $6.7 | 39.0 | 38.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 3 | 2 | Lucas Giolito | 5 | $2.1 | 37.5 | 33.0 | 4.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 2 | Julio Urias | 6 | $3.9 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -3 | 2 | Brandon Woodruff | 7 | $3.6 | 33.5 | 39.0 | -5.5 ▼ | Peripherals still steady, curve looks shaky |
| 2 | 2 | Joe Musgrove | 8 | $9.8 | 30.0 | 29.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 2 | 2 | Carlos Rodon | 9 | $13.3 | 30.0 | 29.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 2 | 2 | Kevin Gausman | 10 | $17.5 | 29.5 | 28.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| -4 | 2 | Freddy Peralta | 11 | $5.3 | 28.5 | 33.5 | -5.0 ▼ | |
| 4 | 3 | Clayton Kershaw | 12 | $8.1 | 27.5 | 23.0 | 4.5 ▲ | |
| 4 | 3 | Justin Verlander | 13 | $5.4 | 26.5 | 22.0 | 4.5 ▲ | Yet another no-hit bid, ho-hum |
| 4 | 3 | Shane McClanahan | 14 | $4.5 | 25.5 | 21.5 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 0 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 15 | $9.8 | 25.5 | 24.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 3 | 3 | Max Fried | 16 | $8.4 | 24.0 | 21.0 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 3 | 3 | Alek Manoah | 17 | $5.4 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 3 | 4 | Zack Wheeler | 18 | $4.5 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 0.5 ▲ | COVID-IL after 2 scoreless starts |
| -5 | 4 | Sandy Alcantara | 19 | $3.2 | 22.0 | 25.5 | -3.5 ▼ | |
| -7 | 4 | Logan Webb | 20 | $6.7 | 21.5 | 27.5 | -6.0 ▼ | |
| 7 | 4 | Shohei Ohtani | 21 | $8.9 | 21.5 | 15.0 | 6.5 ▲ | 1.52 FIP, 1.54 xFIP, 1.82 SIERA |
| -13 | 4 | Shane Bieber | 22 | $4.0 | 20.0 | 30.0 | -10.0 ▼ | Help, my velo's fallen and I can't get up |
| -1 | 4 | Nathan Eovaldi | 23 | $0.9 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 4 | Aaron Nola | 24 | $3.5 | 18.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 4 | 4 | Pablo Lopez | 25 | $9.6 | 17.5 | 14.0 | 3.5 ▲ | |
| -1 | 4 | Frankie Montas | 26 | $5.7 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 4 | Chris Bassitt | 27 | $5.4 | 16.5 | 16.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -4 | 4 | Yu Darvish | 28 | $3.2 | 16.5 | 18.0 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| -6 | 4 | Robbie Ray | 29 | $2.5 | 16.0 | 18.5 | -2.5 ▼ | Saw a bit of the 96-mph stuff Tuesday |
| 0 | 4 | Logan Gilbert | 30 | $5.8 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 2 | 5 | Michael Kopech | 31 | $7.3 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 0 | 5 | Sean Manaea | 32 | $4.4 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -2 | 5 | Jose Berrios | 33 | -$0.7 | 13.0 | 13.5 | -0.5 ▼ | Nowhere near must-start |
| 0 | 5 | Charlie Morton | 34 | -$0.9 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 6 | Zac Gallen | 38 | $8.1 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 5 | Trevor Rogers | 35 | $1.9 | 12.0 | 12.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 0 | 5 | Kyle Wright | 36 | $8.3 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 ▬ | BOS tagged him early but he battled |
| 0 | 6 | Tylor Megill | 37 | $7.8 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -2 | 6 | Nestor Cortes | 43 | $8.0 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| N/A | 6 | Luis Castillo | 39 | -$0.1 | 10.0 | INJ | N/A | Velo down in return, rust or long-term? |
| N/A | 6 | Sonny Gray | 40 | $0.5 | 9.5 | INJ | N/A | 4 IP, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB in return |
| -1 | 6 | Joe Ryan | 44 | $5.1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -2 | 6 | Framber Valdez | 41 | $3.7 | 9.0 | 10.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -2 | 6 | Jesus Luzardo | 42 | $3.6 | 9.0 | 9.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -3 | 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 45 | $4.7 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Steadily good, but not unlocking next level |
| -2 | 7 | Luis Garcia | 46 | $2.4 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ | 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K in latest, 2 straight QS |
| -2 | 7 | Carlos Carrasco | 47 | $5.5 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Looking sharp, plus outings in 5 of 6 |
| -2 | 7 | Alex Cobb | 48 | $3.2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Fluky May 1 start; 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K more like it |
| -2 | 7 | Garrett Whitlock | 49 | $5.9 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| N/A | 7 | Mike Clevinger | 50 | $0.8 | 7.0 | INJ | N/A | 4/1 K/BB in 4 2/3 IP in return, good enough |
| -3 | 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 51 | $6.4 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 7 | George Kirby | 74 | $2.5 | 7.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| -3 | 7 | Tyler Mahle | 52 | $5.1 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Needed PIT matchup to rebound, gets them again |
| -1 | 7 | Alex Wood | 53 | $0.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 7 | Luis Severino | 54 | $2.2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 7 | MacKenzie Gore | 55 | $5.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0.0 | 7 | Tarik Skubal | 56 | $7.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -2 | 7 | Noah Syndergaard | 57 | $4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 8 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 58 | $3.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Season-best 8 Ks, 3 QS in last 4 |
| -2 | 8 | Adam Wainwright | 59 | $3.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ | COVID-IL |
| 0 | 8 | Triston McKenzie | 60 | $6.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 8 | Merrill Kelly | 61 | $9.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Pitching over his head a bit, 2.05 FIP though! |
| 5 | 8 | Eric Lauer | 62 | $5.6 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 ▲ | Passed ATL test w/ 8/3 K/BB in 6 1/3 IP |
| -2 | 9 | Jameson Taillon | 66 | $4.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -2 | 9 | Tony Gonsolin | 67 | $3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -2 | 9 | Drew Rasmussen | 68 | $4.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 9 | Ranger Suarez | 69 | $1.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Blanked SEA over 6 IP, LAD test next |
| -12 | 9 | Marcus Stroman | 70 | $1.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -1.0 ▼ | COVID-IL |
| -2 | 9 | Reid Detmers | 71 | $1.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 0 | 9 | Kyle Gibson | 72 | $4.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 6 | 9 | Paul Blackburn | 73 | $8.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -6 | 9 | Cristian Javier | 76 | $3.3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -13 | 8 | Ian Anderson | 63 | -$0.5 | 2.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 ▼ | |
| -2 | 8 | Jose Urquidy | 64 | $1.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| N/A | 8 | Jon Gray | 65 | $0.7 | 2.5 | INJ | N/A | Knee sprain, hoping to be minor and back shortly |
| -24 | 8 | Tanner Houck | 75 | $2.4 | 2.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 ▼ | Ceiling remains high but command absent |
| -14 | 10 | Hunter Greene | 77 | -$5.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| -7 | 10 | Cal Quantrill | 78 | $2.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -6 | 10 | Josiah Gray | 79 | $1.1 | 2.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -5 | 10 | Kyle Hendricks | 80 | $1.7 | 2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ | Enigmatic; 2 gems, 4 clunkers. ARI next |
| -5 | 10 | Steven Matz | 81 | $2.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -5 | 10 | Michael Lorenzen | 82 | $1.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -3 | 10 | Zach Eflin | 83 | $5.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | COVID-IL |
| -3 | 10 | Taijuan Walker | 84 | -$0.8 | 1.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -2 | 10 | Yusei Kikuchi | 85 | -$1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 10 | Hyun Jin Ryu | 86 | -$0.9 | 1.5 | N/A | N/A | Slated to return May 14 v. TB |
| 3 | 10 | Bruce Zimmermann | 87 | $8.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 10 | Jordan Hicks | 90 | -$0.1 | 1.5 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 10 | Josh Winder | 93 | $4.5 | 1.5 | N/A | N/A | Paddack injury keeps door open |
| N/A | 10 | Spencer Strider | 96 | $2.7 | 1.5 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 10 | Chad Kuhl | 88 | $4.8 | 1.5 | N/A | N/A | |
| N/A | 11 | Jakob Junis | 89 | $2.2 | 1.5 | N/A | N/A | |
| -3 | 11 | Glenn Otto | 91 | $0.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -3 | 11 | Aaron Ashby | 92 | $0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| N/A | 11 | Jake Odorizzi | 94 | $4.1 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | 3 straight Ws since 4/20 implosion, 1 ER in 17 2/3 IP |
| N/A | 11 | Kyle Bradish | 95 | -$0.3 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| -4 | 11 | Michael Pineda | 97 | $0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 11 | Tyler Anderson | 98 | $3.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -3 | 12 | Miles Mikolas | 99 | $5.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -2 | 12 | Brad Keller | 100 | $4.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -2 | 12 | Corey Kluber | 101 | $4.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | B2B strong QS, then obliterated by LAA |
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More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice
