RADIO
The NFL Draft is still weeks away and the fantasy football draft season is even further in the distance. Not so for MFL10 players, who have been picking teams since March broke.
The MFL10 season is in full swing already and we will be looking at early ADP values throughout the spring and summer. After two months of early drafts, some clear values have presented themselves early on.
In this article, I will discuss my favorite value at each position in order to give RotoBaller readers an edge in their preparation.
Top MFL10 Draft Targets - April
Quarterback
Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers ADP: QB15, 126th overall
When it comes to quarterbacks and MFL10s, the answer is usually the later the better with the ability to “stream” good weeks between two quarterbacks. In the best ball format, you get the best score from the position each week so securing an elite signal-caller isn't essential. One thing to value pre-NFL draft is job security. Around QB24, you begin to see issues of possible job security with Tony Romo, Sam Bradford and Jared Goff. So, in order to not wait too long, Rivers is a great QB1 option in the 10th/11th round of MFL10s.
Rivers finished as the QB15 last season, exactly where he is being drafted. However, he did that with Keenan Allen sidelined and some unproven weapons in Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry. With the return of Allen and Henry likely to improve in year two, the passing volume that Rivers had (10th in NFL in attempts, 5th in passing yards) in 2016 will be more easily exploited with the improved receiving corps. After scoring zero touchdowns in his rookie season, Melvin Gordon had great positive touchdown regression in 2016 with 10 rushing touchdowns in only 11 games. While I don’t expect Gordon to return to his scoreless ways, a couple of those Gordon touchdown runs are likely to turn into Rivers touchdown throws. Rivers threw a career-high 21 interceptions in 2016, but this likely can be attributed to a lack of chemistry with his receiving corps. With a year working with Williams and Henry under his belt, that trust will likely result in fewer mistakes by Rivers in the passing game and less negative fantasy points for fantasy owners.
Running Back
Latavius Murray, Minnesota Vikings ADP: RB23, 68th overall
The Zero-RB strategy may not be quite as in-vogue as it was in 2016, particularly in MFL10s which put a premium of “safe” workloads, but for those going heavy at wide receiver in the early rounds, Latavius Murray is a great running back target in the middle rounds of the draft. Before the NFL draft occurs, middle and late-round running backs face the possibility of being supplanted by an incoming rookie running back; this is why I look for situations with a team unlikely to invest at the position during the draft. For me, the Vikings are one of those teams.
Minnesota released Adrian Peterson which began the rumblings of them investing at the position early in the draft, but the lack of a 1st round pick (Sam Bradford trade) and the Latavius Murray signing have quieted much of those talks. With Peterson’s suspensions and injuries in two of the last three seasons, metrics darling Jerick McKinnon has had ample opportunity to take control of the backfield and he has failed to do so by capping out at 539 rushing yards in 2016. Latavius Murray relied heavily on touchdowns for fantasy points in 2016, with 72 of his 204 PPR points (35%) coming via the touchdown. Traditionally, this would be a major red flag with negative regression ahead, however his 461 carries in the last two seasons are 137 more than McKinnon has in his 3 NFL seasons. Murray is the RB1 in the Vikings backfield and when you can get safe volume like that in the middle rounds, that is what I value in a mid-round running back.
Wide Receiver
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers ADP: WR36, 74th overall
Yes, we are doing this again Randall Cobb fans. After Cobb’s down season in 2015 with a line of 79 catches for 829 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, fantasy analysts were screaming from the rooftops how much of a value Cobb was at his WR19 ADP. However, Cobb disappointed on that price with a finish of WR50 including no points whatsoever in the final two weeks. In 2017, his price has depreciated exponentially to WR36 and WR3 on his own team with both Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams being drafted as top 20 wide receivers. This drastic change has overdramatized the breakout of Davante Adams and the demise of Randall Cobb.
Cobb is still the WR2 in Green Bay and the order doesn’t really matter because Rodgers has shown he can easily support multiple fantasy wide receivers. After missing three games due to injury, Cobb should be healthier in the 2017 season and he will see an uptick on his four receiving touchdowns in 2016. I don’t think we will ever see the Randall Cobb who caught 91 balls for 1287 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns in 2014, but that doesn’t mean he won’t easily surpass the WR36 ADP. Cobb at WR36 is the perfect example of drafting a player at his floor with the possibility of huge dividends if he hits his ceiling of a high end WR2 in fantasy.
Tight End
Charles Clay, Buffalo Bills ADP: TE26, 194th overall
I have an undying love for Charles Clay, particularly in the MFL10 format. When NFL teams do something like draft a player higher than consensus thought, or pay a player more than expected, it always causes me to raise an eyebrow on how to react from a fantasy perspective. In the 2016 offseason, the Bills signed Clay to a five-year, $38 million contract, certainly more than most were expecting Clay to get on the open market. That contract shows that the Bills were going to get Clay targets to help make the signing look more reasonable.
Clay only averaged 3.8 targets per game in 2016, but it is important to keep that in perspective for the run heaviest team in the NFL at 30.8 rushing attempts per game. That puts Clay’s target share at 7.78% of the passing offense, a solid number for a late round tight end. The Bills let Robert Woods walk in free agency which could open up the middle of the field more for Charles Clay on intermediate targets. The loss of Woods combined with the likelihood that the Bills are unlikely to repeat how run heavy they were, it means that Clay could easily surpass his TE26 ADP. For reference, 2016 TE27 Jermaine Gresham averaged only 2.3 targets per game in 2016. Volume alone should make Clay a huge value for those in favor of waiting on tight end.
