RADIO
The NFL Draft is still weeks away and the fantasy football draft season is even further in the distance. Not so for MFL10 players, who have been picking teams since mid-February broke.
The MFL10 season is in full swing already and we will be looking at early ADP values throughout the spring and summer. After two months of early drafts, some clear values have presented themselves early on.
In this article, I will discuss my favorite players to avoid at each position in order to give RotoBaller readers an edge in their preparation.
Top MFL10 Draft Fades - April
Quarterback
Tom Brady, New England Patriots ADP: QB3, 63rd overall
With my target piece, I scrolled toward the bottom of the quarterbacks searching for the best value as that is usually the optimal strategy. With fading, I will do the inverse and find which early round quarterback will be hurting teams this season. That quarterback is Tom Brady.
Throughout the offseason, many Patriots fans and Brady supporters have talked about how Brady will continue his dominance for 4-6 years. While the MFL10 format is only looking at players in a one-year lens, I don’t think even one year of excellence is guaranteed for the quarterback who will be playing in his age 40 NFL season.
The addition of Brandin Cooks is exciting and likely gives Brady his best wide receiver since Randy Moss, but Brady’s arm strength will likely begin to dwindle at his advanced age and he could be unable to take advantage of the new weapon in Cooks like he could have at a younger age. Regression is expected from Brady who threw 28 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions with a career low interception rate at 0.5%. On top of the risks of Brady at an older age, even if he does play up to lofty expectations, the return value of QB3 overall is not worth giving up RB22 or WR32 which are being drafted where Brady is.
Running Back
Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons ADP: RB18, 47th overall
It always hurts when one of your favorite values in one offseason turns into one of the most overvalued players in the next season. That is the case with Atlanta Falcons running back Tevin Coleman. Coleman is currently going off the board at RB18 and 47 overall, the perfect example of drafting a player at his likely ceiling. The Atlanta Falcons were second in the NFL with 6,653 total yards in 2016, the perfect recipe for supporting many players in fantasy football.
In that perfect recipe, Coleman finished at RB13 in PPR points per game. Betting on Coleman at his ADP is betting on either the Falcons repeating their offensive excellence in 2017 or a Devonta Freeman injury. Both scenarios are possible, but betting on either is not something I like to do when picking a running back in the top 50 with several #1 backs in their backfield behind him. The one plus for Coleman in the best-ball format; he did have a pair of 25+ point games in 2016, and with best-ball, you never have to worry about missing the game that the Atlanta RB2 “goes off.”
Wide Receiver
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers ADP: WR28, 53rd overall
I have been a resident Kelvin Benjamin hater throughout his NFL career. While he had a period of being undervalued in the offseason prior to his rookie season, I’m going to go ahead and pat myself on the back for being right the rest of the way. Benjamin was one of the most overvalued players in the 2016 fantasy football offseason, going off the board at WR19 at 4.02 in 2016, finishing at WR43 in PPR points per game.
I’m usually not a fan of “if you take out game x and game y then he isn’t any good,” mostly because taking away any players' best games will have a large impact on their results. However, after Benjamin’s first two games of the season with 50.9 PPR points, Benjamin averaged only 8.8 PPR points per game, eclipsing 14 PPR points only once in the next 13 games of the fantasy football season.
Benjamin advocates will claim the Panthers' offensive woes were a large contributor to his struggles, however, Benjamin was a main source of those struggles as he converted catches on only 53.4% of his targets. If the Panthers offense wants to improve in 2017, they need to add a #1 option in front of Benjamin and Devin Funchess in the NFL draft. That way, those two will be better suited in their roles as secondary options in the offense. Any addition in the receiving category will be detrimental for Benjamin as much of his production during his two seasons playing has been heavily target-dependent.
Tight End
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers ADP: TE7, 84th overall
Fade Hunter Henry! Also known as the annual reminder that Antonio Gates is still alive and playing in the NFL, and at a decent level of play to boot. Everyone gets excited about young tight ends, particularly ones who notched six 10+ point games in his rookie season, but there is cause for pause with Henry. Three of Henry’s 10+ point games came with Antonio Gates on the sideline. Additionally, the Chargers will be getting back #1 wide receiver Keenan Allen back from injury who could take away many of the intermediate targets on 3rd and medium that Henry thrived on during his rookie season.
The emergence of Tyrell Williams and Melvin Gordon in the passing game may mean that their are too many mouths to feed for the now Los Angeles Chargers to support Henry at his TE7 ADP. Like with Tevin Coleman, things will need to happen around him for Henry to live up to that ADP. First, Antonio Gates needs to be non-existent in the passing game which I don’t see happening. Even if Gates is out of the picture, Henry will likely be third on the team in targets after Allen and Williams.
Henry’s range of outcomes have a wide range, but none of those outcomes have him surpassing the likes of Reed, Eifert and Olsen, all of whom will be top-two on their team on the target totem pole. If I’m taking a mid-round tight end, I’m doing so because I think they have a shot to enter that second tier of tight ends in scoring, but I don’t see that happening. I believe it is more likely Henry finishes in the teens in scoring rather than the top five.
