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What's up RotoBallers. In this column, Jason and I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC 209. Our analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's Record: 91-42, Jason's Record: 74-59).
MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are our DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at UFC 209.
Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Experts Jason and Justin Bales? Let us know here.
Alistair Overeem vs Mark Hunt
Justin’s Pick
The main card opens with a fight that could realistically go either way. Mark Hunt is a fighter that relies on a great chin and heavy hands. Alistair Overeem, on the other hand, has multiple tools to win this fight. Overeem beat Hunt with a keylock in the first round all the way back in 2008. Both fighters have had plenty of fights since then, and either fighter could land a big shot and end this fight early, but I’ll be siding with the fighter who has more ways to win.
Alistair Overeem via Submission, 2nd Round
Jason’s Pick
This is a very interesting fight between two colossal heavyweights. Mark “Super Samoan” Hunt is looking to move past his loss to Brock Lesnar, which is no longer being seen as a loss now that Lesnar was caught taking steroids, and Alistair “The Reem” Overeem will look to get back on the right track after losing to champion Stipe Miocic. It is true that Overeem has more ways to win this fight, and he is far from being at the end of his career, but Hunt simply has more power and good enough takedown defense to keep this fight standing. All in all, Hunt gets a slight edge, but as with any heavyweight fight, it could go either way.
Mark Hunt via KO, 2nd Round
Lando Vannata vs David Teymur
Justin’s Pick
David Teymur is not a fighter to overlook, but Lando Vannata will be showcasing his striking in this fight. Vannata has a near perfect record with his only loss coming to Tony Ferguson on a short notice fight that Vannata nearly pulled off the upset. Teymur is also near perfect, winning five consecutive fights after losing his first ever professional fight. Teymur certainly has the power to end this fight in a flash, but this will be another masterful performance for the ascending Vannata.
Lando Vannata via TKO, 1st Round
Jason’s Pick
Lando “Groovy” Vannata catapulted into the forefront of UFC discussion after he almost beat Tony Ferguson back in July of 2016. After that, he fought John Makdessi is December of the same year, and won Performance of the Night for one of the best knockouts in UFC history. As a reward, Dana White scheduled him on the main card of UFC 209. He will fight David Teymur, an up-and-coming Swedish fighter with wins over Jason Novelli and Martin Svensson. Teymur wins a majority of his fights via KO/TKO, but Vannata has too good of a chin for that to happen this week. Vannata has inferior defense, but that always seems to be the case. His aggressive style will confuse Teymur, and Vannata will pick up another UFC win.
Lando Vannata via TKO, 3rd Round
Rashad Evans vs Daniel Kelly
Justin’s Pick
This is a tough fight for me to pick. My brain and logic is telling me Rashad Evans should easily pick up the victory, as he has been fighting elite competition for years in the UFC. Daniel Kelly, on the other hand, has not been fighting the competition of Evans. Kelly has, however, represented Australia in the Olympics four times for Judo. I’m going to reluctantly side with my gut on this fight.
Daniel Kelly via Unanimous Decision
Jason’s Pick
The odds for this fight are not out quite yet, but it is likely that Rashad “Suga” Evans will be the favorite over Daniel Kelly. With that said, Daniel Kelly gets the edge. He has great defense while on his feet, and he should be able to defend Evans’ takedown attempts, while landing his own. Evans is a great fighter, but his prime is gone. Kelly, despite his age, is really starting to come into his own after beating Steve Montgomery, Antonio Carlos Junior, and Chris Camozzi. He has more ways to win this fight, and his defense is slightly stronger.
Daniel Kelly via Unanimous Decision
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Tony Ferguson
Justin’s Pick
This is an extremely difficult fight to pick. Both of these men are elite fighters, who have the ability to beat anyone in their division. Tony Ferguson will have the advantage on the feet, but Khabib Nurmagomedov has a knack for taking his opponents down before laying on elite ground and pound with a solid submission game. It wouldn’t be surprising if Ferguson shocks Nurmagomedov with a takedown early, but it’s unlikely he’ll be able to keep him down. Eventually, Nurmagomedov will wind up on top of Ferguson before finishing him in another impressive victory.
Khabib Nurmagomedov via TKO, 2nd Round
Jason’s Pick
This is the fight that UFC fans around the world have been waiting for! I’ve been practicing to take over for Bruce Buffer when he retires. Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson recently said that he is going to out-wrestle Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov. Realistically speaking, that will not happen. Ferguson is going to want to keep this fight standing, while Nurmagomedov will want to take the fight to the ground. Ferguson has great takedown defense, but Nurmagomedov is too good to be thwarted for three rounds. He is better defensively, and does have the edge on the ground. Ultimately, the Russian wins this fight.
Khabib Nurmagomedov via TKO, 3rd Round
Tyron Woodley vs Stephen Thompson
Justin’s Pick
I picked Stepehn Thompson to beat Tyron Woodley in the first matchup, and I’m going to pick him again this weekend. Thompson was only taken down once in their first fight, and it would have won likely won the fight if it weren’t for a 10-8 round, in which Thompson was in serious trouble. I expect him to try to keep his distance in this fight, while picking apart Woodley for five rounds. If Woodley can close the distance and land another power shot, he could walk away the winner, but Thompson proved to have an elite chin, and he showed that he can keep his cool when he’s put in dangerous situations. That will be enough to bring home the belt this time around.
Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision
Jason’s Pick
This is a fantastic rematch. In the first fight between these two, Tyron “The Chosen One” Woodley seemingly knocked out Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, but Thompson recovered and ended up out-pointing Woodley more often than not. If Woodley does not have a very dominant round, Thompson wins the fight on the scorecard. This is a very even matchup, but ultimately, Thompson will win the championship. He has been adding weight during his training camp, and he will come out stronger than ever. It is not often that UFC fighters get a second chance – Thompson will not let his slip.
Stephen Thompson via TKO, 4th Round
