RADIO
There are stats for everything now. It's great, but it can also be overwhelming at times. Depending on where we look, we can tell ourselves all different types of narratives about a player. As a result, I've always been a proponent of identifying the stats that you find to be most useful/beneficial and focusing on those unless your intention is to do a deep dive on one particular player.
While I've been covering barrel rate earlier this offseason, with one article on gainers and another on fallers, today we're going to look at two simple x-stats. X-stats are simply the expected results for specific statistics based on all the data collected from batted balls (velocity, launch angle, location, etc.). This means that a player's x-numbers tell us what, mathematically speaking, should have happened, but we all know that sports and life are never about what should have happened. As a result, we can't simply take a player's x-stats and assume they will do that the next season. However, we can use x-stats to validate performances that we may not fully believe in or use them to look for discrepancies between the expected results and actual results to see who may have gotten particularly unlucky.
In this article, I'm going to look at some interesting players on the xSLG leaderboard. You'll see below that I not only included the xSLG numbers but also the difference between the expected stats and the real statistical outcomes to see who maybe had a flukey year or an unlucky one.
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xSLG Leaderboard
The 2021 xSLG leaderboard has a lot of familiar names that we don't really need to go into. The top-10 were: Fernando Tatis Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna Jr., Joey Votto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge, Tyler O'Neill, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy. These are all hitters that you're likely taking in the early rounds regardless. So, instead, I decided to look at players whose xSLG seems to suggest that a better season could be in the cards for 2022.
Here is the leaderboard of hitters whose xSLG outperformed their SLG (minimum of 200 at-bats - with one exception).
Oh, look Alex Kirilloff and Alejandro Kirk show up again after I covered them in the xBA article. That's interesting.
Josh Donaldson, 3B Minnesota Twins
I covered Josh Donaldson when I looked at barrel rate gainers from the 2021 season. We don't need to do a full breakdown on him here since you can click the link and read my breakdown in the earlier article, but I'm beginning to think he could be really solid value where he's going, especially if he spends more time at DH.
Luke Voit, 1B New York Yankees
Now we can dive into the larger breakdowns. Injuries reared their head for Luke Voit again, limiting the first baseman to only 68 games in 2021. He also never seemed fully healthy when he did play, hitting just .239/.328/.437 with 11 home runs, 26 runs, and 35 RBIs. However, his .252 xBA and .498 xSLG paint a slightly rosier picture.
The first thing that jumps out to me is that Voit's quality of contact is still strong. He had a 15.8% barrel rate (94th-percentile), a 90th-percentile rate of barrels hit over 100 mph, an 86th-percentile xwOBA, and an 81st-percentile rate of balls in the air hit over 100 mph. He maintained his swing rate at pitches outside of the zone (O-Swing%) and kept similar zone swing, first pitch swing, and overall swing rates, which means his approach didn't really change.
The big change was that his contact numbers plummeted. He dropped over 11% on contact on pitches in the zone (Z-Contact), 18% in his contact on pitches outside of the zone (O-Contact%), and over 13% in his contact rate overall. His swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) also exploded 7% up to 20.2%. However, nearly all of these metrics are drastically different than what he's shown throughout his career, so I lean towards this being a product of his multiple injuries in 2021. Not only could the injuries have been hampering his swing, but when players struggle, they start to press and try to do too much, which often leads to even more failure.
If you're buying back in on Voit, it's because he still hits the ball hard and in the air with a fly ball and line-drive rate (FB/LD%) near 60%. He has also maintained a consistent launch angle around 15-degrees throughout the last four seasons, and we actually started to see some signs of improvement in his 39 games in the second half of the 2021 season. In those games, Voit had a .505 SLG and a .832 OPS, which were major improvements from his first half. He also raised his average exit velocity on balls in the air to 98 mph and started to pull the ball more, after struggling to get his bat through the zone quickly earlier in the season. His groundball rate also dropped 5% in those games and while his batting average never really rebounded, the power did with eight of his eleven home runs coming in those 39 games.
It's possible that the 35% HR/FB ratio Voit had in the short 2020 season was a bit flukey, but it was also likely tied to his career-high pull rate. Considering his fly-ball rate and quality of contact didn't really change, it's possible that Voit can push beyond his career 25% HR/FB rate if he's able to get the bat through the zone quicker again. Unfortunately, Voit has seemed to battle injuries a lot through his career, so we shouldn't bank on him being a 150+ game player, but if he's able to play 120+, it's very likely that we see another 30 home run season to go along with a .250-.260 average while hitting in the middle of a potent lineup that gives him the chance for 80+ RBI. Considering he is currently going at pick 282 in drafts, behind Alec Bohm, Miguel Sano, Nathaniel Lowe, and Frank Schwindel, it seems that people are banking on the Yankees signing a first baseman and keeping Voit on the bench. While I understand that thought process, if we get any indication that it might not happen or that Voit could be moved, he'd be tremendous value at that cost. As it stands now, I think he is a solid bench bat or even CI target in deep leagues because of the quality of hitter he is.
Brent Rooker, OF Minnesota Twins
OK, I won't take up a lot of your time with this because Rooker has an ADP of 703 right now, but I really hope we see this dude get a starting job somehow. Minnesota currently has Donaldson and Miguel Sano on the roster, which means that there is no room for Rooker if Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff are all healthy. However, Rooker can flat-out hit.
Don't be fooled by the .201 batting average (.238 xBA) in 2021. Rooker has a career .263 average in the minors and his contact profile in 2021 was better than the surface level stats indicate. He had a 75th-percentile xwOBA and 94th-percentile xwOBA on contact. He also had a .250 xBA in the second half of the season when he cut his strikeout rate by 12%, down to 31.1%, and cut his swinging strike rate by 6%. Those are not great numbers, but it shows a player getting more comfortable at the level, and Rooker will always have some swing and miss in his game.
Most of that is because Rooker is in a lineup to hit for power. He had 22 home runs in Double-A in 2018, then followed that up with 14 home runs in only 65 games in Triple-A in 2019. In 2021, he hit 29 home runs in 120 games across Triple-A and the majors. The 27-year-old had a 12.6% barrel rate in 2021, which was 86th-percentile, was in the 88th-percentile in the rate of barrels hit over 100 mph, and had a hard-hit rate hovering around 50% for most of the season.
Lastly, Rooker started to pull the ball more as the season went on and was in the 80th-percentile on balls hit in the air over 100 mph. Since we know that elevation and exit velocity are crucial to power, it makes sense that Rooker's ability to hit the ball hard and in the air would put him on this xSLG leaderboard and lead to strong home run numbers. If we could be assured that he would play 120+ games, I think Rooker could push for 30 home runs, with a .240-250 batting average. As it stands right now, he's not an option in redraft leagues, but he could be an intriguing late-round pick in Draft Champions leagues and draft-and-hold formats given the age and injury history on the Twins' roster.
Brandon Marsh, OF Los Angeles Angels
We'll move from an unheralded prospect to one who was certainly a little bit trendier last season. Marsh rocketed up prospect boards after a strong showing in the 2019 Arizona Fall league. Many saw him as a burgeoning power/speed threat, and he was called up by the Angels midway through the season despite only moderate production in 24 games at Triple-A. With the Angels, Marsh hit .254/.317/.356 with two home runs, 27 runs, 19 RBIs, and six stolen bases in 70 games.
A couple of things stand up about Marsh's debut season. For starters, the 35% strikeout rate is concerning, and while that's higher than his minor league track record, he has also been in the high 20s in most of his minor league stops, so that is certainly a component of his game we need to keep in mind, especially with his subpar 68.7% contact rate in 2021. Although, the SwStr% in the majors was over 4% higher than what he's demonstrated in the minors and can likely be chalked up to an adjustment to the new level.
It's also important for us to note that, even though Marsh's xSLG is much higher than his SLG, a .414 SLG wouldn't be something that would excite us tremendously. Yet, there are some aspects of his quality of contact that signal the prospect many thought he would be is in there somewhere. For starters, Marsh put up a 10.9% barrel rate, which was good for 78th-percentile. He also hits the ball in the air with authority, ranking in the 79th-percentile on balls in the air over 100 mph and ranking in the 87th-percentile on average exit velocity on balls in the air.
The issue for Marsh was just that he only had a 25% fly-ball rate and a 32.7% pull rate, which means he wasn't hitting the ball in the air a lot and was having trouble getting out in front of major league pitching in order to drive it to his pull side, which, as we know, is where more power tends to come. However, Marsh has had pull rates around 40% or higher through his minor league career, so we should see that rate rise as he gets more adjusted.
Marsh did begin to adjust in August, hitting .309 after a slow July, but the league adjusted back to him in September. Marsh struggled a lot with breaking balls and offspeed pitches, which is something we should expect from a minor leaguer who didn't have a season in 2020 and only played part of a season in 2021 before getting his first MLB cup of coffee. At the end of the day, Marsh showed himself to be a hitter capable of finding the barrel regularly and hitting the ball with authority. He currently doesn't hit the ball in the air enough to turn that into large power numbers, but he also has the speed to beat out balls on the ground, and we've seen young hitters change their swing plane and have huge jumps in production.
After having gotten his feet wet, I assume the Angels will turn their outfield over to their young guns, allowing Marsh and Jo Adell to play alongside Mike Trout once the season begins. If we get 130+ games from Marsh, which feels possible, I think we're looking at a possible 15 HR/15 SB threat, who can hit .250 in a good lineup. Understanding that there is certainly potential for more if he makes the right adjustments, that's strong value at pick 350, especially given how far up the draft boards we are pushing up players with speed.
Dominic Smith, 1B/OF New York Mets
I covered Dom Smith when I looked at barrel rate fallers from the 2021 season. However, at the end of my section on him, I did note that there was some cause for optimism, so maybe this xSLG difference could connect to that. Maybe.
Chad Pinder, 2B/SS/OF Oakland Athletics
Did you know that Chad Pinder had a 16.3% barrel rate in 2021? You'd be forgiven for not knowing that since he only played in 75 games and is often an afterthought as the A's versatile utility man. However, when I saw Pinder's name come up on this leaderboard I decided to dive in and HOT DAMN. It starts with Pinder's barrel rate but then extends to the fact that the 29-year-old was in the 94th-percentile on barrels that went over 100 mph and the 99th-percentile on balls in the air hit over 100 mph. Chad Pinder hit 55.4% of his fly balls and line drives over 100 mph. His average exit velocity on balls in the air was 98.7 mph.
This also isn't really new for Pinder. In 2020, his max exit velocity was in the top 4% in the entire league. He's had an average exit velocity over 90 mph in every season since 2018. At 6'2" 210 pounds, Pinder is also way bigger than middle infielders like Bo Bichette (6'0" 185 pounds) who people have no problem projecting for power. The biggest issues for Pinder's power profile have been that his launch angle usually overs around 8-degrees, causing his FB% to stay in the low to mid-30s and his groundball rate to be near 50%. He also has some swing-and-miss to his game with a career 13% SwStr% and a contact rate of 75%, which is fine but not great, and why his strikeout rate is usually around 25%.
However, Pinder hits the ball incredibly hard and has for a while. As of this writing, he is penciled in as the starting left field for the Athletics, so it's possible that he could play 130+ games while having multi-position eligibility. Even without a swing change, Pinder is likely to be a 15+ home runs bat who can hit .250 and have a combined Runs+RBI total of around 130. If we were to see him begin to add more loft to the swing, a power breakthrough could push him to be a 25+ home run guy who is currently going pick 644. As a result, I love Pinder as one of my end-of-draft multi-position bats.
Gleyber Torres, SS New York Yankees
We'll end with a lightning rod of a name, at least around me here in New York. After hitting .278 with 38 home runs in 2019, Torres struggles a bit in the short season and then really seemed to stall in 2021, hitting .259 with nine home runs, 50 Runs, and 51 RBIs in 127 games. Once the future of the franchise, many Yankee fans seem to hope Gleyber ends up on another team. Should fantasy managers feel the same?
For starters, there are a few things in his plate discipline profile that we like to see. He cut his strikeout rate from his other full seasons and continued to show improved patience; although not at the level we saw in 2020. Still, a K-BB% around 10% is solid for a hitter and his 11.2% SwStr% is right around the top-75 among qualified hitters, putting him near Yoan Moncada, Aaron Judge, and Josh Donaldson, which is not a bad place to be if the power comes back. His O-Swing% gains from 2020 remained, for the most part, and he was more aggressive in the zone, which helps his overall contact rate to trend up for the fourth straight year. So, essentially, we like a lot of his plate discipline profile, but what happened to the power?
The first thing we can see is that Torres' fly ball rate and pull rate have fallen for the fourth straight season, down to 36.2% on the FB% and 37.7% on his pull rate. Obviously, if he's not hitting the ball in the air and to the pull side as much, it's going to cut into his power. The good news is that his batted ball quality started to trend back towards 2018-2019 levels in the second half of the season. His xwOBAcon in the second half was .412, which was not a far cry from his .415 in 2018 and better than his .399 in 2019. His OPS was .794 in the 2nd half of 2021, which was below his .820 from 2018 and .871 from 2019 but much better than his 2020 rate. And the reason he's on this leaderboard, his xSLG was .475 in the second half for 2021, which was better than 2018 and just below the .487 xSLG from 2019.
Overall, Torres hit .289/.338/.456 with six home runs, 24 Runs, and 22 RBI in 50 2nd half games. So what happened and are these second-half changes legit? Most importantly, Torres' barrel rate jumped back up to 10.5%, which would be a career-high if it stuck for a full season. He also hit the ball in the air 54.5% of the time, which is almost identical to 2019, and was in the 54th-percentile in balls in the air hit over 100 mph, which would also be a career-high. That's where the problem lies a bit. Torres' average exit velocity on FB/LD, even during this hot stretch, was 92.5 mph, which was only in the 40th-percentile. However, even in his 38 homer reason, his average exit velocity on balls in the air was 92.7 mph. He simply doesn't hit the ball with that much authority in the air.
At the end of the day, we've seen some improved plate discipline and return to form in quality of contact from Torres, but he doesn't seem to elevate the ball with enough authority to really be a power threat. At only 25-years-old, he is still young enough that he can continue evolving as a hitter, but his pull rate also dropped almost 4% in the second half of the season, so he continues to either struggle or try not to drive the ball to left field. As a result, I think he has the profile of a guy who could raise his batting average back up around .280 but might settle in with 20+ home run power. Considering he stole 14 bases last year, you could be looking at a 2B/SS who goes for .280 20 HR/15 SB while hitting in a strong lineup. That's not really a bad player, especially since you can now draft him around pick 160, behind Brendan Rodgers, Chris Taylor, and Ty France. I'd probably take him over all of those players, especially considering Chris Taylor's career year last year saw him hit .254 with 20 HRs and 13 SBs with a 28.7% strikeout rate, which is really no different from what we're getting from Torres is a season that disappointed many.
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