RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~115 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~124
ANALYSIS: In 2020, the Indianapolis Colts signed veteran QB Philip Rivers to run their offense. In that one season, Rivers targeted his running backs 25% of the time, with Nyheim Hines earning himself a 14.2% target share. This was the second-highest target share on the team, behind only T.Y. Hilton (17.4%).
Despite earning less than 20% of the team’s total carries, by the end of the season, Hines had finished as the RB20 overall. Then in 2021 after Philip Rivers retired, Carson Wentz was brought in as the replacement.
Obviously, Wentz was a much younger and more mobile QB than Rivers had been the previous year, and he only targeted his RBs at a 22.5% rate. In turn, Hines’ target share dropped to 11.4%, still third-highest on the team behind Michael Pittman Jr. (25.7%) and Zach Pascal (13.8%).
While Jonathan Taylor had a major emergence from the 2020 season to 2021, Nyheim Hines’ total rushing yards only dropped by 100 during that span. Yet, he finished as the RB53 overall due to his major drop-off in receiving work.
Now, heading into 2022, the Colts traded for another veteran in former Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan. Ryan is coming off a season where he targeted his RBs at a 26.4% rate, even higher than what we saw from Rivers back in 2020.
This is great news for Nyheim Hines, who has never missed a game in his four-year NFL career and is an above-average pass catcher who will play a significant role in the Colts' offense this season.
While he could easily have a top-24 finish, he’s being drafted as the RB40 due to his lack of upside. However, if you start off wide receiver-heavy in your draft, take this discount on a clear-cut plug-and-play RB2 for your fantasy team.
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