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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons, another article in our weekly series of free NFL betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NFL betting breakdown article is for Sunday, September 11th, 2022.
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Today's Betting Overview - Saints @ Falcons
The Saints take on the Falcons on Sunday, September 11th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NFL games throughout the 2022 season.
- Matchup: New Orleans Saints (0-0) vs. Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
- Date: Sunday, September 11th, 2022
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Today's NFL Sportsbook Odds - Saints @ Falcons
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New Orleans Saints - NFL Betting Analysis
In the 2021-2022 season, the New Orleans Saints posted a regular season record of 9-8. Even with an above .500 overall record, the team missed the playoffs while finishing 2nd in the NFC South.
This year, New Orleans will be looking for an increase in offensive output, as last year's unit averaged 21.4 points per game, placing them 19th in the NFL. The Saints come into this game with an excellent matchup on offense, as the Falcons finished last year ranked 29th in points allowed per game. When playing opponents also ranked in the bottom 10 in points allowed, New Orleans averaged 304.38 yards and 20.88 points.
Heading into the season, the New Orleans Saints would stand to benefit from some improvement in the run game, as they finished last year ranked 15th in total rush yards. New Orleans finished the season by outrushing their opponent in 41.0% of their games.
This week, the Saints starting quarterback will be Jameis Winston. Winston is coming off a season in which he played in 7 games for the Saints and is heading into his 8th year in the league. In terms of production, he threw for a total of 978 yards, placing him 37th in the league.
This season, the Saints will look to once again have one of the top defenses in the league, as they gave up just 19.7 points per game. As a unit, the team's defense gave up more points than their season average in 65% of their games.
Atlanta Falcons - NFL Betting Analysis
The Atlanta Falcons kick off the season coming off a year in which they posted a regular season record of 7-10. With their below .500 record, the team missed the playoffs and finished 3rd in the NFC South.
This season, the Falcons will need their offense to produce at a higher level, as last year's unit averaged just 18.4 points per game, ranking just 25th in the league. Coming into the game, the Falcons offense will look to put up points against last year's 4th ranked scoring defense. Last season, they scored an average of 12 points per game vs top 10 scoring defenses.
Heading into this week's game, the Atlanta Falcons will be looking to put together some sustained offensive drives, as they finished last year ranked just 32nd in time of possession per game. The Falcons won the battle of time of possession in 33.0% of their contests.
Heading into the game, the Falcons will roll with Marcus Mariota at the quarterback position. During the 2021-2022 season, Mariota did not make any starts for the Raiders but still played in 9 games. He will be kicking off his 8th year in the NFL. This season, he will look to replace the production of Matt Ryan, who threw for 3,968 yards on a completion percentage of 67.0%.
Having allowed an average of 27 points per game in the 2021-2022 season, the Falcons finished 29th in the NFL in overall points allowed. In terms of defensive efficiency, Atlanta was near the bottom of the league (28th) in points allowed per play.
Today's NFL Betting Pick - Saints vs. Falcons
The Saints have won 2 of the past 3 games over Atlanta. The over-under record in these games sits at 2-1, with the average scoring total coming in at 46.33 points. Last season, the Saints and Falcons split their two matchups, with New Orleans picking up a 30-20 win and Atlanta coming away with a 27-25 victory.
Against the spread, the Saints have gone 2-1-0. The Saints' offense has averaged 25.33 points per game over the 3 most recent meetings with Atlanta, compared to the Falcons at 21.0.
The Saints posted an excellent ATS record of 9-8 last season. Although the Saints had a mediocre overall record vs the spread, they covered 67.0% of their road contests. As the betting favorite, New Orleans went 1-2 vs the spread. These matchups led to an even scoring differential for New Orleans.
Going back to the 2021-2022 regular season, the Falcons put together an ATS record of 6-10-1. Similar to their overall record, Atlanta struggled to cover the spread at home, going just 1-7. The Atlanta Falcons entered 7 of their games as underdogs of more than 5.5 points, going 1-5-1 vs the spread. In these games, the Falcons had a negative average scoring differential of -18.71 points.
The New Orleans Saints come into this season off a 2021-2022 campaign in which they finished with an over-under mark of 7-10-0. Overall, the team was responsible for 52.0% of the scoring in their games. In addition, New Orleans scored over half of the points in games that finished over the posted betting line.
Last season, the Falcons had an over-under record of 7-10-0. The Falcons accounted for less than half of the overall scoring in the 2021-2022 season at 41.0%. This trend includes games that surpassed the over-under betting line, where the Atlanta Falcons were responsible for 48.0% of the points.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: Saints -5.5
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Over 42.5
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