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It’s often the young players with breakout potential who derail fantasy seasons. Owners are seduced by the allure of drafting the ‘next big thing’ and foolishly overpay at the draft.
While these three rising stars come with a degree of uncertainty, they all offer value at their current ADPs and are great bets to breakout in 2016. Let's take a closer look.
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Young Guns That Will be Fantasy Studs in 2016
Michael Conforto – New York Mets
While the Mets’ talented young pitching staff propelled the team to a World Series appearance in 2015, it may be left-handed slugger Michael Conforto who puts this year’s squad over the top. Conforto made his MLB debut last season, accumulating 194 PAs and belting nine HRs on his way to a solid .270/.335/.506 slash line.
The rookie displayed solid plate discipline by posting a 20.1 K% and 8.8 BB%, both of which are above-average for a slugger in today’s game. The numbers were likely not flukes, as Conforto consistently maintained even more impressive percentages throughout his time in the minors.
The obvious knock on Conforto’s 2015 was his modest 21 HRs across three levels. Managing only seven long balls in 184 A+ ABs and five bombs in 173 AA ABs, Conforto’s power potential does not jump off the stat sheet. However, the 23-year old’s batted ball profile suggests he has ample room for growth.
According to baseballsavant.com, Conforto averaged a 93.36 mph exit speed on hit balls, ranking third in the majors among players with at least 100 charted ABs. He was also one of only 25 players to register a max exit velocity of 115 mph. Conforto’s tendency to hit the ball hard should translate to more home runs in 2016.
Conforto had a penchant for hitting the ball in the air during his rookie campaign. If he can sustain his 38.7 FB% and 22.6 LD%, the lefty will be a good bet for at least 20 home runs. Although he only accumulated 15 PAs against MLB left-handers, Conforto slashed .258/.341/.400 over 135 PAs at three different levels in 2015. Even better, the outfielder slashed .324/.444/.378 over 45 PAs in 2014 with Low-A Brooklyn. The Mets outfielder is flying under the radar this pre-season and has a real chance of breaking out.
Maikel Franco – Philadelphia Phillies
As just a 20-year old in 2013, Maikel Franco slashed .299/.349/.576 in 289 PAs at High-A Clearwater and .339/.363/.563 in 292 PAs at Double-A Reading. He hit a combined 31 HRs and maintained a K% of less 14.0 at each level. Franco took a step back in 2014, struggling to a disappointing .256/.299/.428 slash line with Triple-A Lehigh.
Bouncing back in 2015, Franco found his way onto the big league roster by mid-May. In 335 PAs, the third baseman posted an excellent .280/.343/.497 slash line and belted 14 HRs. Put on the disabled list with a broken writ in mid-August, Franco was returned for the final three regular season games, hitting a homer in one of them.
Franco maintained a 7.8 BB% and 15.5 K% during his rookie season, exhibiting the plate discipline of a seasoned veteran. The right-handed slugger’s K% was in line with his minor league numbers, but his BB% was a little higher and may regress in 2016. Franco will continue to benefit from the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park, which measures 329 ft. down the left-field line and 367 to the power alley. Possessing the ability to hit for average and power, Franco should be owned in all leagues.
Delino Deshields – Texas Rangers
Acquired from Houston in the 2015 Rule 5 Draft, Delino DeShields made his MLB debut with the Texas Rangers in April and had an immediate impact. DeShields slashed .261/.344/.374 over 492 PAs during his rookie season, proving he could hold his own against major league pitching. Slated to be the Rangers’ starting center fielder and leadoff hitter this season, DeShields will have every opportunity to break out in 2016
DeShields went 25 for 33 on stolen base attempts last year, flashing the speed that netted him 101 SBs during his 2012 minor league season. The centerfielder followed up that 2012 season by posting 50+ SBs in 2013 and 2014. Given his history, DeShields should have no problem surpassing the 25 SBs he produced in 2015.
Turning 24 in August, DeShields had mixed results at the plate during his minor league career. In 2014 with Double-A Corpus Christi, Deshields hit just .236 in 411 ABs. The year was not a complete outlier either, as the center fielder batted .222 in 469 ABs with Single-A Lexington during 2011. With such an inconsistent track record, there is risk that DeShields fails to match the .261 batting average he posted last year.
Despite hitting an underwhelming two home runs in 425 ABs last season, DeShields displayed moderate power throughout the minors. Belting at least nine homers in three different minor league seasons, DeShields has the potential to crack double-digit home runs in the majors.
The skill that separates DeShields from other base thieves is his ability to dra walks. The right-hander maintained at least a 10 BB% at every minor league stop since 2012 (excluding his six-game stint at Triple-A last season). The 10.8 BB% he posted in the majors ranked 31st among hitters who made at least 450 PAs, and his 20.0 O-Swing% ranked second among that same demographic. DeShields will continue to draw walks and will have plenty of opportunities to swipe second base.
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