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Eduardo Nunez is an All-Star. While that is now a fact, it has taken many by surprise. The 29-year-old former Yankees prospect wasn't on anyone's radar before the season started and wasn't even guaranteed to be in the starting lineup on a cellar-dwelling Twins team. To take it a step further (as is my modus operandi), Nunez is a top 50 player among all hitters in Major League Baseball.
Statistically speaking, if you look at the rankings in leagues that use extended categories, this is also a fact. Nunez is providing the type of versatility that makes him just as valuable in the fantasy world as in real life. The big question is: where did this come from and should we have seen this coming?
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First, let's talk averages. In four years mostly as a reserve with the Yankees, Nunez slashed .267/.313/.379. Last season in Minnesota, in just 188 AB, he slashed .282/.327/.431. In the first half of 2016, he is currently up to .316/.340/.478. While this certainly stands out as a career year, it isn't the enormous leap you may have expected. Rather, it seems like a continuation of an improving trend. His .332 BABIP is just 18 points higher than last season and 30 above his career average, so the suggestion that he is experiencing unusual luck in his contact is simply not true. His 3.1 BB% is lower than his previous averages (5% career), so he is being slightly more aggressive and making more contact. His 76.3% O-Contact rate shows this, as it is approximately 10 points above league average. This has always been a strength of his, with a 77.9% career O-Contact%.
Vladimir Guerrero would be proud. Except for the batting gloves - Vlad just says no.
His 11 home runs don't display elite power, but at the shortstop position where he is most likely being utilized, it places him within the top 10. Of course, his batting average trumps all other shortstops within that top 10 list and none of those players has even cracked double-digits in steals. His power has seen the biggest jump of all areas, as he had never hit more than five HR in a season. This has also been a developing trend, however, not a sudden occurrence. His ISO over the past five seasons has steadily increased as such: .101 (2012), .112 (2013), .132 (2014), .149 (2015), .163 (2016). Maybe we should have seen this coming.
Take that Yankees! That will teach them for replacing me with Chase Headley. Actually, I think they've already learned their lesson on that one.
He is hitting slightly more fly balls (34.2%) than in his last two seasons with Minnesota, but less than in his stint with the Yankees. In fact, his 1.47 GB/FB almost exactly mimics his career 1.48 ratio. He is actually pulling the ball less this year and has an eerily identical spread to all three parts of the field, between 32-34% for each. His 12.4% HR/FB% is not unsustainable either, so there is no reason to think 20 HR won't happen by season's end.
Now on to the speed. This is what makes Nunez a top-ranking player even if the power were non-existent. Nunez has 20 steals in 25 attempts and is one of six players to top 20 SB before the All-Star break. He has improved his wSB to 1.8 this season and will likely continue running at the top of a Minnesota lineup that will look to manufacture runs in any way possible. He only had one other Major League season in which he stole 20, which came in 309 AB in 2011 with New York. His 20 SB in 301 AB this season places him on an identical pace. Had Nunez seen extended playing time the last few years, he may well have duplicated his current season already.
Ditching the helmet halfway earns him style points as well, if your fantasy league counts that.
Nunez is contributing across every possible counting category, which will keep his fantasy value high throughout the season. Even if he suddenly stops attempting to steal bases for some reason, his batting stats will still rank him among the best at his position(s). Fantasy owners always covet the elusive five-tool player who can help in multiple ways. Nunez is doing exactly that and is eligible at CI and MI spots to boot. As you can see, none of the attributes he has displayed this year are flukes. Nunez has found a way to hone his skills simultaneously and take advantage of his starting role to put together a career year just shy of his 30th birthday. Surrounded by young, still-developing prospects such as Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler, it is Nunez who has experienced the breakout season. Call him a late bloomer. Call him a one-year wonder. Either way, now you have to call him an All-Star.
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