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While holds are even tougher to predict than saves, the players we’ll highlight today include some elite setup men that have proven to be closer candidates to target off the waiver wire for Week 17 of the fantasy baseball season.
The more likely a team is to win, the more likely a pitcher will be eligible to earn the holds that could be the difference between winning or losing in your fantasy league. Bear in mind, an effective relief pitcher highlighted today could find himself in a closer's role if the everyday closer is unavailable or recently ineffective.
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Week 17 Bullpen Targets
Shawn Kelley, Washington Nationals
4 Saves, 6 Holds, 3.11 ERA, 37.2 IP, 58 K, 1.01 WHIP
While Washington Nationals manager Dusty Baker has not said outright that Jonathan Papelbon has lost his closer's role; his ERA (4.18) is currently his career-worst and opponents are hitting .268 against him, another career-worst for the current Nationals closer. While the front office looks externally for an answer, a potential answer may be internal in Shawn Kelley. Opponents are hitting .221 against Kelley in his first year with the Nationals. The fastball, slider pitcher is striking out batters at a career-best 13.9 K/9. He briefly got a taste of closing for the Nationals when Papelbon was injured and the continuing struggles for Papelbon could give Kelley a second chance, one that he may not let go of.
Jim Johnson, Atlanta Braves
4 Saves, 4.21 ERA, 36.1 IP, 32 K, 1.35 WHIP
The veteran Jim Johnson appears to be a stable force at the back of the Atlanta Braves bullpen. Honestly, the Braves do not have much to praise this year so the few and far between wins will be nail-biters. The fastball, curveball pitcher is generating just what he desired with his two-seam fastball when batters are hitting at a 56.4% ground ball rate on batted balls. Johnson is striking out batters at a respectable 7.9 K/9 this year. A problem that comes with this success for the Braves is that as a potential waiver wire pickup, Johnson can present a very affordable trade option for teams in playoff contention seeking a veteran to fortify their bullpen for the late push in the season. Bear in mind, if Johnson is traded, assess the closer situation on the team that acquired him because he may no longer see save opportunities.
Carlos Estevez, Colorado Rockies
10 Saves, 9 Holds, 3.86 ERA, 37.1 IP, 42 K, 1.18 WHIP
Fantasy owners continue to doubt the reliability of Carlos Estevez. With a fastball that averages 97.3 MPH, Estevez is striking out just over a batter per inning (10.1) and is holding opponents to an astounding .199 batting average. Estevez has not generated a very discernible difference in ground balls (43.6%) and fly balls (41.5%) but he is having a fantastic July. In nine July games, he recorded six saves and is pitching to a 2.00 ERA with opponents hitting .129 with 12 strikeouts. He has stabilized the closer situation in Colorado when the rookie made the most of an opportunity that could have been given to veterans.
Brandon Maurer, San Diego Padres
4 Saves, 13 Holds, 4.59 ERA, 49.0 IP, 57 K, 1.22 WHIP
Since receiving the closer's role, Brandon Maurer has been great. With a fastball at 95.4 MPH with his 84.8 slider, Maurer is striking out more than a batter per inning. Opponents are hitting .220 against Maurer this year. The Padres are rebuilding but that does not mean Maurer will not receive save opportunities. Maurer benefits from a pitcher-friendly Petco Park as he generates 41.9% fly balls. The talk of the Padres lately has been the long ball but a closer like Maurer will determine whether those home runs will ultimately lead to a victory if he can lock it down at the end.
Brad Ziegler, Boston Red Sox
19 Saves, 1 Hold, 2.58 ERA, 45.1 IP, 34 K, 1.30 WHIP
The Brad Ziegler closer experience in Boston may be coming to an end with Craig Kimbrel on a rehab assignment so this waiver wire pickup can be a rental of a closer on a winning team. Since joining the Red Sox, Ziegler did not have a large number of save opportunities but he has been a very strong reliever. His last appearance was the lone bad appearance since returning to the American League. In seven appearances for the righty with the unique motion, opponents are hitting .083 against him. Like any great sinker ball pitcher, Ziegler generates 62.5% ground balls with an 83.6 MPH sinker. Kimbrel's return is impending so this pickup should be a brief one for opportunities to wrap up the remainder of this month.
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