Flopping Aces - Finding Value in Slow-Starting Pitching Performances

Growing up, the baseball mantra from my father was “wait until 40 games and then you can know how a team will play.”  Perhaps this was just a way for a Cleveland fan growing up in the 80s to keep hope, or maybe there is some truth to that saying.  

Small sample sizes do matter. Some players take a few weeks to get going, and all the other baseball truisms apply. Overreactions kill teams, and so too with fantasy rosters. 

Still, if you have Yu Darvish and others on your roster, waiting for 40 games might be torture. Perhaps even watching his first four starts have been torture. What to do what with that flopping ace?  This article will offer some context and reactions to slow starts from some of the name brands in The Show. NFBC average draft positions for drafts post-February 1st are included for context.

Time to Deal Your Aces?

Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs (ADP: 45)

So far, Darvish’s Chicago career has been a major dud. Through four games he has failed to win a game, is averaging less than five innings a start, is walking 5.03 per nine, and has an ERA over six. Any reason for optimism here? Sure, pitchers with this track record have earned a longer leash, and in roto leagues, the damage can only get better. If Darvish is this bad, the season is perhaps already over, so no reason to not stay the course. Even more, Darvish has faced some good teams and played the Rockies at Coors. The Braves, for example, were top of the league in offense when they met Darvish, so small sample and hot teams could indeed be the primary factor here. The most promising note is that Darvish is still averaging more than a strikeout an inning, meaning the stuff has not fallen off a cliff. The most significant marker hinting at a turnaround is a BABIP almost 40 points higher than Darvish’s career average. He might be getting “bad-lucked” to death.

BALLER MOVE: Hang tight, do not sell when his value is this low. If the right trade offer emerges, be willing to pull the trigger, but do not sell for pennies on the dollar. There is still a ton of value in this profile.

Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies (ADP: 163)

Gray owners know the roller coaster that is a season behind this Colorado pitcher. Not only does he pitch in the pitcher wasteland that is Coors field, but also plays in front of the streaky Rockies who can never really seem to figure out who they are offensively. Pitching at Coors, Gray has posted a career ERA of 4.76 with a WHIP of 1.311. On the road? Gray has posted an ERA of 4.32 and WHIP of 1.354. While not a noticeable difference in ERA based on the home/road splits, Gray seems to give up a similar amount of base runners no matter the park, which should serve as a significant warning flag for fantasy owners. Back to this year, the biggest change for Gray has been an increase in home runs allowed. His career average has been 0.92 HR/9, but this year that has surged to 1.10 HR/9. Compared to some other power pitchers this number is not all that high, but with that WHIP the HR do more damage. Still, the K% and BB% are stable with career numbers, and even an xFIP of 3.38 shows that this package will improve.  

BALLER MOVE: Trade for Gray where possible, as he is starting to be dropped in some leagues, and should be cheap where still owned.  As the start versus the Padres on April 25th showed, he is still a legitimate SP2 in most formats, but the HR needs to come down to be reliable.  

Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP: 151)

What do owners do with a pitcher that is striking out more batters this year, inducing more ground balls, and still seeing a surge in ERA?  That is the question for Marcus Stroman owners. To say the metrics are weird is an understatement since he is seemingly taking the “right” steps for a fantasy pitcher.  The major red flag is walk rate. So far this year Stroman is walking 6.30 BB/9. Connect that with a slightly higher HR/FB rate (20%) and owners can see where the damage is coming from.

Where is the good news? Even with the increase in HR, Stoman is giving up fewer fly balls than ever before with a drop to 16.1%. Even with the surge in HARD% to 50%, the likelihood of the HR continuing is not high.  The other weird outlier? 0% IFFB%. Storman is losing cheap outs and giving up more hard contact which seems unsustainable to continue, if, and the big if, he can get that BB% down.

BALLER MOVE: If the HR numbers continue this is going to be a tough year for Stroman with Judge, Stanton, Betts, etc.  If the name still has value in a league, this seems to be a sell-low option. With the emergence of players like Happ in that Toronto rotation, there seem to be fillers with less implosion potential.      

Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 46)

Perhaps not an ace per se, Ray does hold a special place in the fantasy community for that K rate, and other attractive stats that can boost a roster.  This year through five games he has two wins, 5.81 BB/9, and an era of 5.13. The good news? The strikeouts! Right now 14.7 K/9 should excite owners who can look past the first few numbers.  A few other things to consider when looking to Ray. Through his first five starts, he has hit one batter and thrown two wild pitches. Once every 8.6 innings he has hit or advanced a runner via the wild pitch.  How does this compare to career numbers? In both 2016 and 2017, this stat set at 12.4 innings. Apparently, the control is not there so far this season, but perhaps a wild Ray has even better stuff.

BALLER MOVE: Ray has always been a bit of an outlier with the K profile, and should have been expected to benefit from the humidor at Chase Field.  No reason to be alarmed yet, and even if there is a concern, compared to others on this list Ray is still offering value where he was expected to.

Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (ADP: 73)

Dallas Keuchel entered the year as a consensus bounce back pitcher who has seen injuries derail still quality seasons since winning the Cy Young in 2015. So far this year, Keuchel might be the worst starter in Houston. Not like that is saying much as pitching behind Verlander, Cole, Morton, and McCullers means that even the worst might be the best elsewhere. A 25.4 Soft% coming into this season was the calling card and helped avoid the issues with a soft-tossing pitcher. This season that number is even better with a rise to 29.2%. So then what gives? Three losses through the first few weeks with only one win shows that even a small change in the profile has long-term effects.  The BB/9 has jumped to 3.72, and GB% has dropped from 66.8% to 57.3% this season. The other concern? While the ERA sits at 3.10 Keuchel’s xFIP sits at 3.98. Not bad compared to other pitchers, but alarming when the ERA is the one thing making him a top fantasy pitcher at this point.

BALLER MOVE: Too early to sound the alarm, but a Keuchel owner might consider shopping the starter while most of the concern is more rooted in the profile.  The ERA still sells, but who knows for how long. Flipping for a penalty of one or two rounds seems worth it in case this is the season that Keuchel falls off the cliff.  

Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 54)

The final name on the list might be the most concerning.  Through five games only one win, an ERA of 6.29, and 1.65 HR/9 do not bode well for this “ace.” The main concern? His fastball. So far this season, Archer has thrown the four-seamer 45% of the time, and yet as a pitch, the fastball has been worth -5.3 runs above average.  Archer, in only 27.1 innings has given up five additional runs compared to the norm, just looking to his primary pitch. The good news? With an xFIP at 3.80 means that some of the damage can be blamed on the defense behind him or luck to some extent.  The downside? Without Kevin Kiermaier patrolling center there is no way that the defense gets better in the short term. At least with a pitcher like Ray, there was value in the K rate, but with Archer, this is also down this year. Finally, Archer is getting opposing hitters to chase less. An O-Swing % is barely lower than career average but a full point lower than last year. On the flipside, opposing hitters are swinging at pitches in the zone nine percent more than last year. Archer is not deceptive, and batters are teeing off.

BALLER MOVE: Of all the pitchers on this list, Archer is the closest to a recommendation to drop in shallow and 10-team leagues. No trade value means even a sell-low option is off the table. Bench him and hope for a rebound.     

More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis