Smashmouth: Offensive Lines Impacting Fantasy Football (Week 16)

6 years ago by TheRealHalupka

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TESTING NEW WIDGET hide

2. Fantasy Impact

3. Top Five Offensive Lines

4. Bottom Five Offensive Lines

5. More Fantasy Football Analysis

Congratulations to those that have made their fantasy championships, and for those that play into week 17 for the fantasy championship, please change your league settings. As fantasy owners prepare for their league championships, it not only matters who got you to this point, but which players are ready to perform in the biggest of spots. The “start your studs” notion has certainly been debunked over the last two weeks with numerous big-time players like Saquon Barkley, Adam Thielen, and Andrew Luck not living up to expectations.

Another such team that has failed to live up to the hype over the past few games has been the Rams. They were able to drop 30 points on the Lions in week 13, but the last two weeks have just been dreadful. Jared Goff hasn’t thrown a touchdown in each of his last two games and thrown five interceptions in that stretch. He’s been consistently under pressure during this time and unable to make the big plays down the field. His average completed air yards according to NFL Next Gen Stats was just 4.1 yards per completion in Week 15, one of the 10 lowest of the week.

The question is can fantasy owners trust not only Jared Goff, but the rest of the playmakers on the Rams as they try to come out of their recent struggles? Can the Rams offensive line find its form from earlier in the season to help propel Todd Gurley to RB1 status for championship week?

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Offensive Line to Watch - Los Angeles Rams

Much of the Rams success overall comes from their ability to get in great play-calling situations with success on first down. Their staple zone running game has led to fantasy goodness for Todd Gurley and his owners alike over the past two seasons. Up until two weeks ago, there was no thought that this would not continue until the Rams met the Bears. The Bears ended up doing a masterful job on first down, limiting the success of Gurley and the zone running game. The Bears entire defense is able to key on this zone scheme and slide down the line and also disengage from their blockers. As the Bears disengage, there is no vertical lane for Gurley to cut up. Right tackle Rob Havenstein does a poor job working together with Tyler Higbee in order to wall off the backside pursuit. Center John Sullivan struggled against his down lineman all day, allowing penetration and stopping Gurley for no gain on multiple attempts. Sullivan has struggled this season, coming in as the number 32 ranked center according to Pro Football Focus. His 52.1 run blocking grade is among the 10 worst grades of starting centers for 2018. He’s been nearly equally as bad as a pass protector, as one of the seven worst in the league.

Over the course of the last two weeks, there have clearly been some massive punctures in the armor that is the Los Angeles Rams’ offensive line. Three sacks against the Chicago Bears and one sack surrendered to the Philadelphia Eagles have made Jared Goff uncomfortable in the pocket. His six turnovers the last two weeks are more than any other four-game stretch this season. Teams with a strong front four have been able to bother Goff while leaving enough manpower in the back-end to limit the success of Goff and Co. on their deep play-action passes. A great example of Goff feeling the heat, even if it’s not really around him was a 2^nd and long vs. the Bears. The Rams spread out the Bears with five receivers and Goff is in the shotgun. The Bears only rush four with a blitz by their middle linebacker. Goff takes a three-step drop and then without pressure in his face pivots and opens up his throwing shoulder and fades away from a non-existent incoming rush. This pass falls harmlessly incomplete. The Rams do a solid job of picking up the blitzing linebacker as left guard Roger Saffold is able to mash the blister into the nose tackle. There is no excuse for this poor form from Goff.

Even though Goff might be seeing shadows of late, the Rams still should be one of the top offenses to trust heading into championship weekend. They are coached by one of the best young coaching minds in Sean McVay and he does the little things to help his team succeed. On a third and one against the Eagles, the Rams break the huddle quickly into a bunch formation to the right. The snap count is quick, so the Eagles have little time to communicate and determine how they are going to play the bunch. Todd Gurley, lined up as the inside receiver, simply runs a flat route which the Eagles cannot cover for an easy first down. Its intelligent play-calling like that this from McVay that will help to propel the Rams through to the NFL playoffs, and deliver in fantasy championships.

Fantasy Impact

Trust: Robert Woods

Woods has been one of the most consistent wide receivers throughout the entire 2018 season, even though his most recent performances have been some of his weakest. He’s seen at least eight targets in each of his last four games and tallied at least 61 yards in those games. He should avoid most of Patrick Peterson’s coverage this week as Woods has been playing more slot receiver since Cooper Kupp was placed on IR. He can be safely in lineups as a WR2 in all formats.

Cause for Concern: Jared Goff

As seen previously in this article, Goff has been off these last few weeks. He has just one touchdown and seven INTs since the start of December. He’s been facing increased pressure as his offensive line has been struggling against stout front fours. He faces a Cardinals team that is a top-10 defense against the quarterback position, mostly due to how bad they’ve been against running backs. Chandler Jones could give Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein. Goff should be considered a low-end starting option this week. I would rather start Lamar Jackson and even Josh Allen over Goff.