RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! EUM is back, and all the simmering undercurrents of the passionate European fans that have led to world wars and soccer hooligans can now be settled - ON THE RIFT. We saw some surprising results from day two, and we're hoping to avoid any landmines on day three. You can taste the regional pride in these matches and it is great to see.
Just like Spring, we will have four days of six-game slates then a break. On September 9th, we'll see each group finish out on their day breaking things down to three separate two-game slates. After that, we'll proceed to the bracket stage where the group's top seeds face the twos from the other groups in the best of three elimination matches. The Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way, so stay tuned!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the EU Masters slates on DraftKings that lock at 12:00 PM ET on Wednesday, August 26th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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12:00 PM: Fnatic Rising (-500) vs. Intrepid Fox
After shutting me up day one, the NLC champs got run on day two. Mousesports showed the perceived Prime League gap was a thing. FNC finally get themselves an easier matchup versus the second seed from Greece. Intrepid Fox arrived via the play-in stage and was cast into a group of death. IF is doing their best, but aren't able to keep up with the rest of their group. Outside of the talent gap, another problem IF faces in their late-game decision making. Fnatic will have a vision advantage over IF and should be ahead early given their strong and proactive early games.
Dan vs. Lebron is an exciting matchup for me; Dan is a much more team-oriented jungler working hard to get his lanes ahead, where Lebron is more carry oriented. We saw Dan take it to bluerzor on day 1, and Lebron plays a ton of Kha'zix, which I don't see translating well onto the international stage. Unless Lebron gets up early and HARD carries, this should be an easy match for the NLC side in Fnatic Rising. Intrepid Fox likes to fight when behind averaging over twenty deaths in their losses, so this is a lovely spot for FNC, both sides should score well in the event of a win. We saw GamersOrigin put 25 kills on IF yesterday, and its no stretch to think that FNC matches that here.
Top FNC Plays:
- Dan - JNG
- xMatty - ADC
- Bravado - SUP
- Pride - TOP
12:50 PM: GamersOrigin vs. mousesports (-200)
GamersOrigin couldn't eek it out for me on Monday, but Tuesday they took care of business dropping 25 kills on IF. Now they face a big step back up in competition. Mousesports kept rolling over the side of FNC in an easy looking win from start to finish. LIDER did have to drop a QUADRA to put the final nail in the coffin, but it was comfortable.
Now we've got another big showdown in group D. Mouse should have the advantage from the get-go in this one. They have higher rift herald priority, which they use for a better first turret percentage and a better gold differential at fifteen minutes. GO does have a slightly better first blood, but if this mousesports lineup shows up the way they have the first two days of this tournament and the way they did in their playoffs, GO will be hard-pressed to keep pace. This game will be another of the tighter matches of the day, and as neither team dies a lot when they lose, I might stay away from this one. GamersOrigin surrendered less than 15 kills in their losses in the LFL, so I expect similar results here.
Top mouse Plays:
- LIDER - MID
- Obsess - JNG
- Promisq - SUP
- Tolkin - TOP
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1:40 PM: Movistar Riders (-125) vs. GamersLegion (-115)
Moviestar gave Rogue fits on Monday hanging on for dear life not trying to lose that game, while Team GamerLegion held court over the former Energypot Wizards, both teams got day two off, so they are fresh for this match. This game opened at a -140 for the side of GL and has moved to a Movistar favored line, and while I like that value, even more, I also think it will increase the ownership on the side of MSR. I feel like this is going to play out similarly to MSR first-round match. GL has been playing with its food a bit, which cost the team in their playoff run. After watching their performance on day one, I'd say they're still at it. They were down gold, but up objectives with a scaling comp versus Supp, exactly where they would like to be, but with MSR hyper objective focus being what kept them in the game against Rogue, I think it's what gets them the win here too.
MSR is the Spanish first seed, and they own the statistics here from an objective standpoint. Baron, drake, herald, first turret, first blood, gold diff, and even a slight vision lead, and maybe some of that is from playing in a slightly weaker league, but I think it will be enough here. GL struggled with the third seed from Spain G2 Arctic in their play-in series and were not convincing versus Supp on Monday. I've described GL as a bit like IG, and when they are behind, they are not afraid to try to fight their way back into a game. This resulted in them giving up over twenty kills in each of their losses, so I like the upside for MSR.
Top MSR Plays:
- Xico - MID
- Elyoya - JNG
- JaVaa - ADC
- Rhuckz - SUP
2:30 PM: AGO Rogue (-600) vs. Suppup Esports
Another pair of teams that took day two off Rogue comes in as big favorites over Supp. Supp looked flat on day one, and although they picked up three wins in their group in Spring, they were in a much more manageable group, and only one of those wins was off a bigger region team. Rogue struggled to close out what likely should have been a win versus MSR on Monday, but they should find much easier going here.
My concern is that they will blitz this SuppUp squad and not pay off their prices as such big favs. The Shockblast's winning lineup on DK was with Rogue, but that was due to the dogged MSR resistance. Supp only gives over 12.5 deaths in their losses, and that fact alone is enough to give me pause with Rogue here. I think they win but will only have one-offs or small stacks if anything.
Top RGO Plays:
- Woolite - ADC
- Trymbi - SUP
- Szygenda - TOP
- RGO Team
3:20 PM: S04 Evo (-110) vs. LDLC (-125)
This match has BANGER written all over it. Two teams that took Monday off now look to throw down on day three. LDLC is one of the most active clubs at the event, and they positively SMURFED their way through the play-in stage. You could tell they were unhappy to be there. They were perfect in the play-ins, not dropping a single game. Their average gold differential at 15 in play-ins was over 5k. They destroyed Riddle in the knock out stage, and that was a good squad with two former LEC/LCS level players on it. Then yesterday happened, they dropped what should have been an easy win on paper to the Italian champs SMS, and I think we can chalk that one up to overconfidence. SMS had a new draft strategy, and LDLC weren't able to overcome an early team fight blunder. S04 wasn't able to keep pace with the early game proactivity from K1. Lurox looked rough, and the addition of Mystiques to that K1 lineup looked like a major upgrade. With LDLC losing as well, this line hasn't moved much, and I was worried it would if LDLC crushed.
The teams' regular summer season splits look similar with a slight edge to LDLC statistically, and they hold the lead in first blood, first turret, heralds, and barons. S04 has small edges in drakes, gold differential, and vision. LDLC is the more active team on the map, and with those statistical advantages, I give them a slight edge in this matchup. But given the run of form they have shown, I think they might romp here, and I'll have lots. Schalke average 16.5 deaths in their losses, but with the way LDLC has been playing, it's tough to see them not going over 20 in a win. LDLC should be chalky too, but when they lose, they too like to go down swinging averaging 25 deaths in their losses with only one going under 20 as we saw in full effect yesterday.
Top LDLC Plays:
- Tynx - JNG
- Vetheo - MID
- Bando - TOP
- YellOwStaR - SUP
Top S04 Plays:
- Sertuss - MID
- Innaxe - ADC
- Lurox - JNG
- Nukes - SUP
4:10 PM: K1ck (-600) vs. Samsung Morning Stars
The POLSKA GUROM crowd was out in force on day two as their heroes from the Spring were back in action, and they were well rewarded with a spanking of S04 by K1. This game should be a more straightforward test for K1. The Italian champs showed they are for real with a HUGE upset over LDLC yesterday but will be put to the test again today with another very successful team from Spring. They will likely be outmatched still here early and late with K1 having tremendous stats in their home league, the Polish Ultraliga.
Poland has typically been a stronger league than Italy, and we've seen that bear out in the Spring. SMS was good early in Italy, amassing a 2,072 gold advantage at fifteen minutes, but K1 was better in a better league with 2,688. Same with the first blood and first turret rates for both teams, SMS's 50% and 69% are terrific, but K1 72% and 83% are better. It's not hard to see where I'm going with this I like K1 to continue their history of strong EU Masters runs with a comfortable win here. That may be the problem, though, as they will likely roll over the Italian champs without much resistance. I've already highlighted some better upside potential spots on the slate, and while I'm very confident in the side of K1 I won't have much from them with SMS only surrendering 17 kills in their losses.
Top K1 plays:
- Shlatan - JNG
- Puki Style - ADC
- Ibo - TOP
Summary
- TLDR - FNC, Mouse, MSR, Rogue, LDLC, and K1 win, but GO, GL, and S04 are all live and in good scoring spots too. FNC will likely be the most significant chalk spot of the day, but they will be hard to skip with a good matchup and their playstyle.
- Mouse should flex on GO, but offer little upside in doing so. Outside of LIDER with his insane kill share percentage, you could be better off looking elsewhere.
- Both sides of the MSR/GL match should score well in a win, but MSR has the bigger upside with a slightly more team-oriented outlook bringing up their kill participation numbers, but with them being the favorites, I expect them to now be very popular.
- Both Polish representatives should walk over the competition on day three, and that hurts their upside. K1 and Rogue are both quite safe in my estimation but limited by opponents. Rogue probably has the better upside of the two since we've seen them play down a bit thus far.
- Schalke probably has a bit better upside than LDLC, but I like the French side better here. It's just that when they lose, oh boy, look out!
- I hope you all are enjoying this week of big slates and are looking to come back on the 9th for some more regional league action. This week is our last chance to get in on some bigger slates until the World Championships start at the end of September.
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