RADIO
What an exciting night on the rift; HLE struggled with LSB and DWG crushed in the nightcap. OMG, hard INTed. WE made mincemeat of SNG, and JDG did likewise with RNG. Insane stuff, and somehow I managed to build all my hedge lines with some losing piece. Rough go, but we're back in action tonight.
We're back into two gamers for a day before we're off tomorrow. No LPL games on the schedule for Tuesday, but the boys are back in action Wednesday, and the LCK returns on Thursday. Both leagues are closing in on the playoffs, and these matches mean more than ever in terms of seeding. Today promises to be a bit boring with a couple of huge favorites. RA is currently in third place, but they play EDG and RNG next week to close the season, so they can't afford to give one away here. IG is sitting in tenth right now in danger of missing the playoffs entirely.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Monday, March 15th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other helpful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: LGD (+650) vs. Rare Atom (-1200)
LGD is one of the teams chasing IG for the final playoff spot, but they have four of their last five matches versus playoff teams. They will have a tough time catching IG and are likely looking at building up momentum and consistency for the summer split. Rare Atom is looking sharp and is surprisingly in third in the LPL right now. The bad news for them is that they have first and second left on their plate before playoff seedings settle. They need this win over LGD to try to stave of FPX and TES.
RA should be set up well to claim this win. They are the team we thought they could be last year with a solid map play-based gameplan and execution. Ultimately, in the playoffs, and likely in their final two matches of the split, we will see them pushed by more talented teams than them. Leyan and Iboy remain liabilities when facing top-tier teams, but LGD ain't it. We saw IG getting run around by this RA squad recently, and I suspect the same scenarios will play out with LGD. LGD does have the edge in first drakes and total dragons, which I find surprising. Rare Atom holds every other statistical edge by a rather significant margin, including the vison numbers.
Rare Atom should take this one quickly, and I'm concerned about their ability to score well. I have them projected for a half kill less than IG in a win, but the sloppy nature of Invictus coupled with the clean gameplay coming out of RA could make it worse. I think I'll prioritize the RA team slot and with Top and Sup to try and maximize a likely sweep bonus.
Top RA Plays:
- Hang - SUP - second to his mid in KP%.
- Fofo - MID - leads the team in KP% and second in KS%.
- Cube - TOP - his numbers aren't great, but I think the sweep bonus is significant here.
- Rare Atom - Team - how RA wins this should lead to excellent scores.
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6:00 AM: TT (+500) vs. IG (-900)
Once you look at IG's remaining schedule and those of the teams below them chasing for the final playoff spot, you can see that they aren't in much danger of falling out of the playoffs. I may have oversold that a bit in the intro to suck you in. Their odds for moving up out of the bottom four are also not great. They have these final few weaker matchups to try to work their way into playoff form because that's going to be a brutal bracket to climb from the tenth spot. Right now, they would open with best of fives versus JDG then TES if they advanced. OUCH. On the other hand, TT will look to build some continuity and momentum heading into summer. They have a few winnable matchups left on the schedule and would love to try to spoil things for IG.
Since the break, IG has been up and down as per usual. Taking out EDG, but looking lost versus SNG and RA. Which version will show up today? IG has improved on this split because they haven't lost too many teams below them in the standings. TT hasn't been able to close out any big upsets despite being relatively close versus JDG and RA. The post-break stats for both teams are comparable. TT should keep it close early with a higher rift herald priority and first turret rate. IG has a better GD@15 and controls both neutral monster objectives as well. IG has the edge in team stats, but it is closer than you'd think at first blush.
Top to bottom, the player talent is still there for IG, at least in this matchup. I am concerned about their continual Kalista priority in the draft phase. IG can make it work flex pick between top and bot and are never afraid to push the pace necessary with a mid-game adc like her. TT will likely have to look to stall out these games and try to take IG late where their lack of vision and set up around objectives can cost them. TT unfortunately has one of the lowest average game times in the league, as does IG. This suggests they won't be able to stretch these games out as they need to. I like IG here, but if you need to fuel your underdog fantasies on a two-game slate, I think TT has a shot. Last summer, as DMO, TT took IG to three games, so there is some precedent.
Top IG Plays:
- Xun - JNG - 74%KP and 33%KS post-break in wins.
- Puff - ADC - 73%KP and 38%KS post-break in wins.
- Rookie - MID - steadily regaining his form.
- theshy - TOP - good numbers in wins post-break.
Top TT Plays: if you must
- SamD - ADC - third in KP% and first in KS% will need to pop off if TT takes it late.
- Teen - SUP - first in KP%.
- Xiaopeng - JNG - second in both kill metrics, and if he can disrupt XUN, it's a primary win condition for TT's side.
Summary
- TLDR: RA 2-0, IG 2-0. TT is live because of IG. That should also be the busier matchup. So I'd look to get my big stacks from that side.
- Two gamers require a lot of game theory, so try to get into your opponent's heads. On FD, for instance, everyone will look to a one-off TT team, and simply pivoting to LGD can give you massive leverage.
- Tailor your strategy to your contests and have fun out there tonight!
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