NBA Western Conference Playoffs Preview: Betting Picks and Predictions

First I covered the first four matchups from the Eastern Conference playoffs, now it's time to go west, young man! Some might argue that the West is the better conference of the two and it is more certainly deeper. But the Nets, Sixers, and Bucks are all formidable teams that should give whoever wins the West a run for their money.

It was a shortened schedule this year as teams only played 72 games instead of 82, but it was still a grueling year for the players with all of the COVID restrictions and scheduling issues. It was equally grueling for those of us who covered the NBA for fantasy purposes and NBA DFS was almost unplayable for the last month of the year with how many injuries and players were resting on a nightly basis.

But the playoffs should return some normalcy to things as most teams will tighten up their rotations and with the exception of the Celtics (who are missing Jaylen Brown for the rest of the postseason), most of these teams enter the playoffs with all their key contributors. I am going to break down each series and highlight a few bets that I like before finally giving my final prediction. Without any further ado, let's get into the analysis!

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#1 Utah Jazz vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies

Season Series: Utah 3-0

Series Odds: Utah (-1250), Memphis (+700)

Western Conference Champs Odds: Utah (+375), Memphis (+5900)

NBA Champs Odds: Utah (+700), Memphis (+15000)

 

The Grizzlies are in as the last seed in the West, pulling off the upset of Golden State on Friday night. The bad news for them, of course, is that the Utah Jazz is waiting for them in the first round. Utah had the best record of any team in the NBA this year despite not having a true superstar on the roster. They have a balanced team and a lot of depth and were simply consistent night in and night out this year. Utah had the best net rating in the league, fielding a top-5 offense and a top-3 defense.

Memphis is a young team that finally saw things come together this year and resembles Utah to an extent in that they are not totally reliant on a few stars, but rather play a fairly deep rotation and often get contributions from a number of guys each night. They were 15th in offensive rating this season but did post the seventh-best defensive rating. Last year we saw Ja Morant go nuts in the bubble and we know he is a budding superstar. Jonas Valanciunas has been on a tear himself lately and this team is definitely not one that Utah should be sleeping on.

But the Jazz is finally healthy with Donovan Mitchell set to return and it's hard to envision them laying an egg here and losing this series. I do think that Memphis can win a game or two and make it interesting, but over the course of an entire series, I just think Utah is too good. They're +700 to win it all after having the best record this season, which is pretty crazy so I may have to bet that just on principle. Utah beat them in all three matchups this season, though two of those were close games. I think we see some close games again in this series, but ultimately the Jazz prevail.

Betting Picks: Utah NBA Champs (+700), Series Correct Score: Utah 4-2 (+450)

Series Prediction: Utah 4-2

 

#2 Phoenix Suns vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series: Phoenix 2-1

Series Odds: Lakers (-159), Suns (+125)

Western Conference Champs Odds: Lakers (+220), Suns (+650)

NBA Champs Odds: Lakers (+450), Suns (+1500)

 

This has to be the most compelling series of the first round - in either conference! The defending champion Lakers had to win a play-in game to get into the playoffs after falling down the standings during the second half of the season. They missed Anthony Davis and LeBron James both for huge chunks of the year and there are serious questions as to whether or not they can turn it on down the stretch and go through the gauntlet that is the Western Conference to get back to the finals.

Meanwhile, Phoenix is the most improved team in the league and finished only one game behind Utah for the top seed. Their 51 wins were noteworthy considering they were a lottery team last year. Chris Paul brought a stabilizing veteran presence to this team that was already loaded with young talent and the results have been impressive.

The reality here is that Phoenix was my all measures a better team this year. They are good on offense, defense, and have a number of quality wins under their belt already including two wins against the Lakers. But are they ready for a deep run and can they beat the defending champs with both stars healthy? The Lakers didn't have both stars in any of those three matchups this year.

I want to believe in Phoenix and I think it's a great series. I just think LeBron and AD will be too much in the end and LeBron will find a way to get this team into the next round. I am just not sure I want to bet on the Lakers to win it all, though +450 odds aren't that bad.

Betting Picks: Total games played over 6.5 (+200)

Series Prediction: Lakers 4-3

 

#3 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 Portland Trail Blazers

Season Series: Denver 2-1

Series Odds: Nuggets (-110), Blazers (-110)

Western Conference Champs Odds: Denver (+1500), Portland (+2000)

NBA Champs Odds: Denver (+3000), Portland (+5000)

 

Vegas has this series as a pick 'em, which has to reflect some doubt in bettors' eyes as to whether or not the Nuggets can overcome the injuries they've suffered this season and beat a surging Blazers squad. Jamal Murray was a huge reason why this Denver team went to the Conference finals last summer as he had one of the more memorable postseason stretches we've seen lately. The Nuggets still have Nikola Jokic, who played like the MVP of the league this year (in my opinion), and some really good role players around him, but their defense really took a hit down the stretch and they're showing some cracks in the armor.

The most recent meeting between these two teams was a dominating win by the Blazers, but I also don't want to put too much stock into that win as the Nuggets were quick to pull the plug on their starters as soon as the game got out of hand. The Blazers have two dominant scorers in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum and two solid big men to throw at Jokic in Kanter and Nurkic. I think they could really give Denver some fits in this series and despite my love for the Joker, he can't do it all by himself.

It pains me to do it, but I will take the team with the momentum working in their favor, give me the Blazers here in a tight series.

Betting Picks: Portland to win series (-110), Total Games Played over 6.5 (+200)

Series Prediction: Blazers 4-3

 

#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #5 Dallas Mavericks

Season Series: Mavericks 2-1

Series Odds: Clippers (-400), Mavericks (+300)

Western Conference Champs Odds: Clippers (+240), Mavericks (+2200)

NBA Champs Odds: Clippers (+500), Mavericks (+5000)

 

The Clippers are much like the Lakers in that we haven't seen them play all that many games together at full strength. That ended up being their demise last year as they lost to Denver in the semifinals, but this year's team looks a good bit different with Lou Williams gone and veterans like Serge Ibaka and Nicolas Batum on board. The Clippers had the second-best net rating this year behind Utah and are a better team than their record indicates. They also happen to have one of the most clutch playoff performers in the league in Kawhi Leonard and another superstar in Paul George who should be motivated to prove that his "Playoff P" postseason of last summer was a fluke.

The Mavericks are a team that you want to root for but just seem fatally flawed to me. Luka is a generational talent who can pile up stats like no one we've seen since Westbrook, but can he will this team to victory over a deeper Clippers team? Porzingis is an ultra-talented sidekick but simply hasn't taken this team over the top like they thought he might and the rest of the roster lacks any impact players who might swing this series. I think Dallas wins a game or two, but the Clippers take care of business here and end up facing the Lakers this year in the conference finals that we all thought we were going to get last year.

Betting Picks: Total Games Played under 5.5 (+100), Clippers Western Conference Champs (+240)

Series Prediction: Clippers 4-1

 

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