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Julio Jones is a member of the Tennessee Titans.
Sunday's news that the Falcons and Titans had agreed on a deal to send Jones to Tennessee wasn't a huge surprise, as Julio trade rumors have swirled for a while.
Still, now that it's happened, things have changed in the NFL, both in real life and in fantasy football. The Titans leap up in the AFC rankings and should compete to win the conference. And fantasy-wise? Well, read on to see how this Julio Jones trade impacts fantasy football.
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Julio Jones 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Let's start with Julio Jones. What can he do in Tennessee?
Probably not as much as he was doing in his prime with the Falcons, though that's not a knock on Jones at all.
First, let's look at what Julio did in Atlanta last year. He was limited to nine games because of injury, but still posted 51 catches for 771 yards and three touchdowns. His 85.7 yards per game were his lowest since 2012, but 85.7 receiving yards per game is still really good, and his 75 percent catch rate was the highest of his career.
So while yes, Jones is entering his age-32 season, it is a season Julio Jones is still an elite receiver. Looking at some of his efficiency stats from PlayerProfiler confirms that, as he was third among receivers in yards per target and yards per route run, plus seventh in true catch rate despite being just 50th in target accuracy. The QB rating when targeting Jones was 126.5; Matt Ryan's overall QB rating was just 93.3.
So, yeah, Julio is good!
The issue in terms of fantasy will be opportunity. In 2020, the Falcons were fourth in the NFL in passing attempts with 628. The Titans were 30th at 485. It's going to be a lot harder for Tennessee to have a pair of top fantasy receivers than it was for the Falcons, even when you factor in that Julio is arguably upgrading to a better quarterback. Better doesn't always mean improved stats.
The good news? The Titans had 33 touchdown passes last year. The Falcons had 27. Jones gets a clear upgrade in terms of touchdown upside. Ryan Tannehill was third in the league in touchdown percentage at 6.9 percent and lest you think that was a one-year blip, he was second in touchdown rate in 2019. The presence of Derrick Henry opens up a ton in the passing game.
So, in terms of a Jones outlook, he'll have fewer targets this year, but likely a pretty big jump in touchdowns, and with A.J. Brown drawing coverage, Jones should continue to have a high catch rate as he faces more single coverage. All this works out to me expecting him to be a consistent WR2, with some WR1 flashes at times.
How Jones Impacts The Rest of the Titans
Let's start with Tannehill.
As mentioned above, Tannehill has a high touchdown rate, but is also near the bottom of the league in pass attempts.
I would assume that the Titans won't tear the playbook up and throw 650 times this year, but I do think we see more from Tannehill as a passer. You don't trade for Jones to give him Corey Davis' workload. You trade for him because you realize you need to throw more and take a little pressure off of Henry.
Last year, even with the limitations of this offense, Tannehill was the overall QB7 and the QB10 in PPG if we include Dak Prescott. So...he was a fantasy QB1 despite being 18th in total pass attempts.
So, let's go ahead and get this out of the way: Tannehill is a QB1 this year. Right now per Fantasy Football Calculator, Tannehill is being drafted as the QB14. He should pass a few guys in front of him with this news, but if you can get him at, like, the end of Round 7 as the QB10 or QB11 still? Oh my. Oh my, my, my. That's great value and barring an injury, will pay off. I can't imagine drafting an incredibly old Tom Brady or a second-year QB coming off an injury like Joe Burrow over Tannehill.
In terms of Derrick Henry, this...could be bad-ish. Henry led the NFL in attempts with 378 last year, a year after he led with 303. He also led the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and rushing yards per game.
He could do all those things again and he needs to still be drafted as an RB1, but Henry's lack of receiving upside means that you're drafting him in PPR leagues with the hopes that he continues to get 350 carries and double-digit touchdowns. If something threatens that, then you could be drafting Henry as the overall RB3 or RB4 but wind up with someone who doesn't quite hit that value in full PPR.
That's all theoretical, though. Derrick Henry being Derrick Henry means that Henry will likely wind up having another monster season. Still, something to keep in mind when drafting.
The other big player impacted here is A.J. Brown.
Before this trade, Brown was basically the entire receiving corps in Tennessee. He was in line to have the biggest target share in the league because there was no competition for those targets.
Now? It's complicated.
Brown is obviously still a really strong fantasy player. But we'd reach the point where he was being drafted as the overall WR7, ahead of Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Justin Jefferson, and Allen Robinson. Now that Julio is going to take some targets away, I'd rather draft Brown around WR12. I still trust him more than Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, or the Bucs receivers, just because Brown's so talented. He was second among wide receivers in both production premium and dominator rating last year per PlayerProfiler. He was second in fantasy points per route run and seventh in fantasy points per target.
His rapport with Tannehill means I actually think Brown ends up being the lead receiver here over Jones. Still, I would drop Brown a few spots and expect high-end WR2 production.
(This move also likely spells doom for the Anthony Firkser truthers. Sorry, y'all!)
What About The Falcons?
Oh yeah, there's another team involved here.
With Jones gone, Calvin Ridley has no competition at receiver. He was already being drafted as the WR6 though, so the Jones move doesn't move the needle too much because Ridley was already going to have a monster season as he transitioned into being the No. 1 receiver in Atlanta. Less target competition, but also more intense coverage from the defense means that Ridley is still around WR6 for me. Maybe I can be convinced to draft him over D.K. Metcalf in full PPR since I expect more receptions from Ridley? Maybe? But for the most part, I'm keeping him around where he was.
The biggest winner for Atlanta is Russell Gage. Gage flashed some solid talent last year, and with Jones gone, he should move into the starting lineup on a full-time basis. He's no Julio Jones, but he does go from virtually undraftable to being a WR4 option. That's a nice jump for Gage.
Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts will be relied on more than before now too. It's so, so, so hard to trust a rookie tight end in redraft. Pitts seems like he might be special, and Jones leaving gives a lot of vacated targets, but still...he's a rookie, so I'm not projecting him above, like, TE10, even with this news. He could break out, but I'm just always going to temper my expectations.
Oh, and Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is going to keep throwing the ball a lot and the fact he'll throw a lot gives him upside, but without Jones to help him actually complete those passes, I'd expect some regression here. Ryan is being drafted like a high-end QB2 right now, but without Jones, I'd drop him down a little bit. Maybe QB17 or QB18 instead of the QB15 he's being drafted as? There's always going to be a high floor here based on how much Ryan likes to throw the ball and Atlanta not having much of a running game, but I don't love the ceiling.
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