RADIO
Welcome to the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL playoffs, RotoBallers! For the playoffs, I won't be posting my usual spreadsheet, but instead, I will be breaking down each of the games with my favorite plays, pivots, and general strategy on how I am going to approach players in that game on each slate.
We have four games this weekend and while you can play the full 4-game slate, both sites have also chopped them up into smaller 2-game slates, too. I will be breaking down the two Saturday games here in this article and will follow with another article that addresses the two-game slate on Sunday.
DVOA Matchups for All Divisional Games (click to enlarge)
Game by Game Breakdowns - Divisional Round Saturday
4:30 PM - Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans (47 total)
Previous Meetings: Did not face each other in the regular season.
Man, I am so freaking pumped for these games. I think all four games are going to be awesome and likely pretty close as I don't see any favorites blowing anyone out and I think all four underdogs have a shot to win.
So let's start with the underdogs here as the Bengals head to Tennessee to take on the #1 seed in the AFC. I can't be the only one to have doubts about whether or not this Titans team is truly deserving of the top seed, right? I've seen a lot of folks saying the Bills-Chiefs game on Sunday is the de-facto AFC Championship as the winner of that game will surely be favored against the winner of this one. The Titans certainly have a bunch of question marks going into this game and looked very beatable at times during the regular season. When you pair that uncertainty with an exciting young Bengals team that is playing really well right now, then it's no surprise that the top seed is only a field goal favorite here.
The Bengals are here on the strength of the play of Joe Burrow and the passing game, let's be real. While Joe Mixon is an incredibly important part of this offense and a guy that they want to feed when they can, it's been Burrow's play down the stretch (and Ja'Marr Chase, too) that has elevated this entire team. Early in the year, it looked like Cincinnatti wanted to be a running team and limit Burrow's throws in an attempt to keep him healthy. But late in the year, they transitioned in a more pass-heavy approach and the results have been fantastic as Burrow has thrown 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last three games.
The way I see things unfolding would be for Mike Vrabel and his coaching staff to take away Joe Mixon and the run game and force Burrow to beat them. The Titans do have a solid pass rush and Burrow is a guy who definitely gets affected by pressure. That sets up for a boom/bust spot for Burrow and his pass-catchers. If you think Burrow keeps the hot streak going, then he makes for an elite option as Tennessee's corners are definitely beatable and Burrow has studs all over the place to throw to. According to our own Andrew Lalama's CB/DB chart, it's Chase who has the toughest matchup of the three wideouts so stacking Burrow with Higgins and/or Boyd could be a contrarian way to go with a Bengals stack.
Boyd is definitely my favorite of the three on a point-per-dollar basis. He's so good in the slot and he keeps finding his way into the end zone as he's scored a touchdown in four straight games. He will probably be popular for that reason, but at his price, it's hard to argue against it. CZ Uzomah is a decent option at TE, too, and we saw him have another great game last week with 6-64-1 against the Raiders. Higgins might be the lowest-owned of the bunch and is a great leverage play for GPPs.
Perhaps I buried the lede, but Derrick Henry is back! It's likely he's activated before this game and rejoins the offense that he nearly singlehandedly carried for the first half of the season. Henry ran roughshod over the competition for 937 yards and 11 touchdowns before an injury in week 8 ended his regular season. Assuming that he's not limited in any way, it's hard not to jump on him at his depressed price and you'd have to think that the Titans are thrilled to be getting the lifeblood of their offense back.
A fresh Derrick Henry is a problem for Cincinnati. They're a middling run defense, but Henry has shown that he can excel even in the toughest matchups. The Titans formula for winning is simple. They will pound Henry between the tackles and wear down opponents and set up a highly-effective play-action passing game. The sheer volume of carries and goalline work that Henry should resume makes him a strong play. If you fade him, you're playing the angle that the Bengals play with the lead and force Tennesse to pass more than they want or that he gets hurt. Even in that first scenario, there is a path for Henry to be optimal as they're not likely to abandon him entirely.
I have to be honest, I don't love A.J. Brown here. He has the toughest matchup of any Titans receiver and he's certainly not a guy you can use in cash as he has a boom/bust nature to his game logs. Perhaps Henry has success on the ground and opens up a big deep ball to Brown for a score and he's very affordable for his upside on DraftKings, but he's not a priority play by any means. Julio Jones, on the other hand, could be a great pivot and we saw him pop off against Houston in the last regular-season game for five catches on nine targets for 58 yards and a score.
Anthony Firkser is a solid punt at TE as the Bengals have allowed some big games to the position this season and he's riding a two-game scoring streak of his own.
CORE PLAYS: Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Tyler Boyd
OTHER PLAYS: Ja'Marr Chase, C.J. Uzomah, Tee Higgins, Julio Jones, Anthony Firkser
8:15 PM - San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) @ Green Bay Packers (47 total)
Previous Meetings: 9/26 - Green Bay won 30-28
This is a compelling matchup and a really interesting game for DFS as well. The Packers are the biggest favorite on the slate, and rightfully so as they are the top seed in the NFC and have looked very much the part this season.
The Packers pulled out a tight win early in the season, winning on a last-second field goal by Mason Crosby. These two offenses are both well-suited to take advantage of the opposing defenses' weaknesses. Consider that the Niners want to run the ball and have the fifth-rated run offense in the league going up against the 28th-rated run defense of the Packers. Green Bay stifled Trey Sermon in the first matchup, but the Niners are now featuring Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell in a dynamic 1-2 punch and have been running over teams in the last month.
Meanwhile, the Packers' best offensive players are Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams - and you could make the argument that there wasn't a better QB-WR duo in the league this season. The Niners' secondary has been suspect and is going to have their hands full with Adams as well as Allen Lazard. While the Packers will try to establish the run, too, they could easily be forced into a pass-heavy approach by a San Francisco front seven that ranked second against the run this year.
So it's pretty simple for me. I will be going overweight on Rodgers and his weapons in the passing game and avoiding the timeshare of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Tight end Josiah Deguara had a solid game in the finale against Detroit with 66 yards and a score but averages only 3 targets per game since taking over for Robert Tonyan midseason.
The Niners' guys I have the most interest in are Elijah Mitchell (who is getting 20+ carries a game and has a good matchup here), Deebo Samuel (who just keeps finding ways to get in the end zone), and George Kittle (could be sneaky here as he hasn't done much lately but had a good game against them the first time around). Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings are certainly viable, too, but secondary options.
CORE PLAYS: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Elijah Mitchell
OTHER PLAYS: Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Allen Lazard
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Divisional Round Saturday
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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