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About The Model Maniac
A South African native living the American dream. I played college golf in Iowa where I spent four years playing and two coaching, while grabbing 3.5 finance related degrees along the way. As my twitter handle suggests, I am obsessed with my very own excel model. Tournament long matchups are my favorite bet and I love nothing more than a Sunday golf sweat.
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The Model Maniac has written 138 articles so far, you can find them below.
Keith Mitchell Can Rely On Driver
Keith Mitchell is gaining roughly a shot per round off the tee this season. His driver is his biggest asset, keeping him out of trouble while simultaneously setting up easier approach shots. Mitchell gains his next chunk of strokes with his putter, which averages over a stroke per round when putting confidently. If Mitchell keeps... Read More
Bubba Watson To Lean On Match-Play Experience
Bubba Watson has a winning match-play record of 10-6-5 at Austin Country Club. Although Watson has not been playing well lately, he has proven that his history at specific courses or events is one of his more reliable predictors of success. Watson has to outscore Webb Simpson, Abraham Ancer and Brian Harman to emerge from... Read More
Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - WGC Dell Match Play
After having an outright in final-round contention three weeks in a row, Collin Morikawa's T68 gifted our chore lists and wives with some much-needed weekend attention. Morikawa had no short-game touch at all, wasting another impressive ball-striking week from the world #2. We had a small loss on the week, but remain profitable over the... Read More
Scottie Scheffler Looking To Make Match-Play Finals Again
Scottie Scheffler was a finalist at this event last year and beat Jon Rahm in singles at The Ryder Cup. Scheffler is in fantastic form, winning two of his last four events. He has been putting incredibly and his irons have been peaking, both crucial elements to succeeding in match play. While playing the best... Read More
Kevin Kisner Can Continue Match-Play Success
Kevin Kisner has one of the best match-play records at this event (16-6-1). As a former winner of the WGC Dell Match Play, Kisner has wielded his elite chipping and putting to win many matches against better drivers and more accurate iron players. Even with Justin Thomas in his group, Kisner has a chance to... Read More
Kevin Na A Match-Play Nightmare
Kevin Na can win a hole from anywhere around the green with his elite short game. His accuracy off the tee and streaky iron play have allowed him to enter the week with an 8-8-2 record at Austin Country Club. Na has also shown that there is more to match play than just strokes gained,... Read More
Sungjae Im Relying On Short Game
Sungjae Im has not gained more than 1.5 strokes on approach in any of his last five starts. Im will need to beat Patrick Cantlay, Seamus Power and Keith Mitchell if he wants to advance out of his group this week. He has been struggling with his irons for the last two months, which will... Read More
Marc Leishman Brings Complete Game To Match Play
Marc Leishman missed his first cut of the season at The Players Championship. He has six top-20 finishes in his 11 starts this season. He has been incredibly consistent, gaining strokes in all four major categories in most of his starts. Leishman will be looking to improve on his losing record at Austin Country Club... Read More
Patrick Cantlay Struggling On Approach
Patrick Cantlay has only gained strokes with his irons in two of his six starts in the 2022 season. However, he has four top-10s in those starts while the rest of his game has been firing on all cylinders. He missed his first cut of the season at The Players Championship, where he lost strokes... Read More
Brooks Koepka Needs To Find Consistency
Brooks Koepka will be in a group with Shane Lowry, Erik Van Rooyen and Harold Varner III at Austin County Club this week. Koepka salvaged a mediocre outing at the Valspar with a Sunday 65, two shots better than the next-lowest Round 4 score. His inconsistencies can be a concern heading into match play, as... Read More
Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - Valspar Championship
Cameron Smith you beauty! What a scintillating final round from the wallaby wizard. Smith did not limit the damage with the driver, but managed to offset that by breaking countless Players' putting records to claim Breaking $100's first outright ticket of the series. Smith was also one of the six placing bets that cashed for... Read More
Jhonattan Vegas Relying On Ball-Striking
Jhonattan Vegas missed his first cut in five starts at the tumultuous Players Championship last week. At a course like Innisbrook, Vegas may find his distance advantage off the tee slightly nullified by forced layups. With a larger emphasis on the rest of his game, he is able to lean on his approach play to... Read More
Sahith Theegala Still High-Risk, High-Reward
After a poor week at The Players Championship, Sahith Theegala suffered back-to-back missed cuts for the first time this season. However, with drastic scoring differences depending on tee times, The Players should be a tournament that carries very little relevance if a golfer plays poorly. Sahith's volatility across all statistical categories makes him a high-risk,... Read More
Mito Pereira Looking To Bring Entire Game To Valspar
Mito Pereira has all the skills to win on the PGA Tour, but he has been struggling to bring all his skills to the same event. When Pereira has gained strokes on approach and putting in the same event, he has finished T29 or better. Pereira has recently traded out an incredible stretch of putting... Read More
Andrew Putnam Looks To Regroup On Approach
Andrew Putnam's game seems to be heading in a positive direction. He has gained more than 0.92 strokes per round on approach in four of his last eight starts. Over the last 50 rounds, Putnam ranks ninth in putting on Bermuda surfaces. Coming off missed cuts at a soggy Players Championship and a tough Arnold... Read More
Bubba Watson An Innisbrook Enigma
Bubba Watson has finished T13 and T4 in his last two Valspar Championships. Watson's course history is often a better predictor of success than his recent form. He is one of the most eccentric golfers on tour, shaping shots in ways that most golfers cannot replicate. Watson seems to feel comfortable around Innisbrook, gaining significantly... Read More
Kevin Kisner A Great Course Fit
Kevin Kisner's fourth-place finish at The Players Championship was courtesy of his field-best, around-the-green game. He also put forward a top-10 putting performance that masked another below-average approach week. Positive ball-striking weeks are more of a bonus than an expectation for the short hitter. Kisner's strengths lie on and around the green, which will be... Read More
Jason Day To Lean On Short Game
Jason Day has the short game to be competitive at Innisbrook. After a missed cut at The Players in very testing and lopsided conditions, that result should not be taken too seriously. Compared to TPC Sawgrass with less water around Innisbrook, it should not punish errant approach shots as severely. Day's weakness is his iron... Read More
Max Homa's Game Peaking Before The Players
Max Homa gained six strokes on approach at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he's now gained strokes on approach in five consecutive events. With his irons peaking heading into the week, he fits the narrative that great recent iron play is a necessity to win The Players Championship. His T17 finish at the API included... Read More
Sahith Theegala A High-Risk, High-Reward Play
Sahith Theegala had a forgettable Friday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, losing four strokes putting to shoot a 79. The rest of his game seemed to face a similar fate, as he lost strokes around the green and on approach. He was not the only one to struggle mightily at Bay Hill, as multiple professionals... Read More
Mito Pereira Looking To Bounce Back With Putter
After gaining over half a stroke putting per round in six straight events, Mito Pereira broke his streak at The Honda Classic, losing a total of 4.44 strokes to finish T30. He gained strokes in each of the other three major statistical categories, though, which is promising. Pereira has gained strokes on approach in four... Read More
Russell Henley Has A High Floor
Russell Henley has made all 10 cuts this season. He has finished T33 or better in nine of those starts. TPC Sawgrass is a shorter course that requires precision off the tee and on approach. Henley checks both of those boxes consistently, with his strokes gained on approach ranking inside the top 10 on tour... Read More
Corey Conners A Great Course Fit This Week
Corey Conners is one of the best ball-strikers on tour. Conners has gained more than 0.26 strokes per round off the tee in each of his nine starts this season. Although not as consistent as his driver, he has also produced multiple weeks of elite iron play, which is what TPC Sawgrass demands. Unfortunately, his... Read More
Avoid Bubba Watson At The Players
Bubba Watson leans on his driver to gain most of his strokes on the field. He also has one of the stronger course histories on tour, with success at certain courses being a lot more predictable than the average tour pro. Watson's last two starts were a missed cut at The Genesis Invitational and a... Read More
Luke List Has Great Putting History At TPC Sawgrass
Luke List has gained strokes putting in only one event this season, winning the Farmers Insurance Open that week. List heads to TPC Sawgrass, where he has gained over 0.63 strokes putting in three of his five appearances. In the other three major statistical categories, he has gained steadily across the board all season. He... Read More
Scottie Scheffler Extremely Hot Entering Players Championship
After winning last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational, Scottie Scheffler has now won two of his last three starts. His driver was a major factor in his first win while losing strokes on approach. His second win came courtesy of a whopping 8.44 strokes gained on approach with minimal contributions from his driver. In both wins,... Read More
Jason Day Not Striking It Well Recently
Jason Day won The Players Championship in 2016, gaining over 6.3 strokes on approach. His six starts in 2022 have only produced one positive iron performance at the Farmers Insurance Open. As is now a customary part of his game, he made the cut in five of his starts this year by leaning on his... Read More
Sungjae Im's Irons A Concern
TPC Sawgrass demands exceptional approach play from past champions. Sungjae Im has only gained more than a stroke on approach once in his last four starts. He putted exceptionally well in two of those four tournaments, salvaging two T20s by gaining more than six strokes putting. Im has been a consistent gainer off the tee... Read More
Hideki Matsuyama A Hot Putter Away From Victory
In classic Hideki Matsuyama fashion, the Japanese star finished T20 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational while losing stokes on the putting green. In 10 starts this season, Matsuyama has lost strokes on approach once, losing a menacing minus-0.01 strokes at the Shriners Children's Open. He has a similar record off the tee, losing strokes only... Read More
Rory McIlroy Looking To Repeat Ball-Striking At The Players
Rory McIlroy gained a season-high 7.5 strokes in ball-striking at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Unfortunately, his putter rebelled at the worst time, and he lost strokes over his four rounds. A three-putt from five feet on Sunday was seemingly the straw that broke the camel's back. Past winners at The Players, including McIlroy, have typically... Read More
