RADIO
When looking to confirm or refute fast starts, we can quickly turn to Statcast Leaderboards for information. While we could fill out a full search, the leaderboards are a quick way to see which hitters are barreling up balls in 2018.
While sabermetrics don't always translate to fantasy leaders, they are often a great indicator of top performers who may eventually turn out to be great values.
In case you missed it, our own Rick Lucks broke down the significance of Barrels for Hitters in the preseason. Now, who are some of the hitters that are driving the ball hard to open the season?
Featured Promo: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting promo offers from the top sportsbooks! All new sign-ups get a free bonus offer on their first deposit, and a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Sign Up Now!
Barrel Leaders - Offense
Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays
Although Mookie Betts tops the Statcast leaderboard with 17.1 Brls/PA, Teoscar Hernandez (OF, TOR) ranks fourth in Brls/PA with 14.7. Hernandez's ability to square up pitches has him seventh in Hard Hit balls (57.1%), and he has a 49.0 Hard%. Through 93 at-bats, he has pulled the ball 40% of the time while taking it the opposite way 26% of the time.
Even though he has some swing and miss in his game (23.5 K%), the walks he draws (7.8 BB%) are close to league average. He has plenty of whiffs against sliders (20.2 SwStr%), and he can struggle (.347 OPS) when seeing change-ups. Luckily, he crushes four-seam fastballs (1.127 OPS) and two-seam fastballs (.958 OPS), as three of his five HR have come against four-seamers.
As far as splits go, he has more swings and misses (29.0 K%) versus southpaws. He also has hit more ground balls (52.9 GB%) when facing lefties. The outfielder still hits the ball with authority (47.1 Hard%) vs. LHP, and he has shown more patience (16.1 BB%) in his at-bats.
In 2018, he has had more success (.922 OPS) against right-handed pitchers. He averages 101 MPH exit velocity on FB/LD vs. RHP, and he uses the whole field (34.0 pull% and 28.3 Oppo%) against RHP. Hernandez's ability to average 357 feet on fly balls vs. RHP with plenty of hard contact bodes well for his power going forward.
While Teoscar Hernandez has the exit velocity and barrels for 20-HR power, he also has enough sprint speed (28.3 ft/sec) to steal bases. To open the season, he has stolen three bases on four attempts, and Steamer projects another seven bases while ZiPS projections calls for 13 more bags with more at-bats.
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
After a wrist injury cut into Xander Bogaerts' (SS, BOS) numbers in the second half of 2017, he is in the top 10 with 12.5 Brls/PA. Increasing his hard contact from 31% in 2017 to 35.6% in 2018 and trading ground balls (41%) for fly balls (36%) could lead to more power potential in 2018. When he hits home runs, he doesn't get cheated, as averaging 416 feet on HR ties him with Nelson Cruz.
Bogaerts has seen a tremendous jump in exit velocity in 2018. Last season, he only averaged 90.8 MPH on FB/LD. He has increased his exit velocity to 96.8 MPH on FB/LD in 2018, which could boost his batting average with his 23.7 LD%.
Pulling the ball more (47.5 Pull%) in 2018 has helped the shortstop post a .949 OPS. All three home runs and six of his ten doubles have been pulled. He has also increased his average fly-ball distance from 304 feet in 2017 to 332 feet in 2018.
He fares well against both sides of a platoon. He has shown more patience (9.8 BB%) and had more success (.835 career-OPS and .364 career-wOBA) vs. LHP. He can hold his own against RHP, as his .729 career-OPS and .317 wOBA are decent. While it may be expensive to acquire Bogaerts in a trade, his Statcast numbers back his 2018 improvements.
Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds
Although he missed some time with a DL stint in 2018, Eugenio Suarez (3B, CIN) ranks fifteenth with 11.0 Brls/PA. He owns a 56.0 Hard Hit%, which ranks ninth in MLB. With his ability to find more barrels in 2018, he has increased his exit velocity from 91.5 MPH in 2017 to 93.3 MPH in 2018. Like Bogaerts, barreling up balls has increased his average fly-ball distance to 341 feet.
With his current profile, Suarez can finish with a batting average that helps fantasy rosters. He's squaring up the ball with a 54.4 Hard% and a healthy amount (26.3 LD%) of line drives. Unlike some other hitters that have tried to pull the ball more, he has kept his pull rate (40.4 Pull%) steady in 2018. His early performance is not a BABIP outlier either, as he owns a .288 BABIP in 2018.
His favorable home park (41 home HR) can help his power, and he is improving versus right-handed pitching. The third baseman has improved vs. RHP, as he has increased his .683 OPS in 2016 to an .806 OPS in 2017. So far, he has kept those gains in 2018 against RHP with a 48.9 Hard%, 31.0 LD%, and .961 OPS through 51 at-bats.
Suarez is fine-tuning his plate discipline. He's lowering his swings and misses (15.9 K%) while drawing consistent walks (13.4 BB%), which bodes well for the rest of the season. Even though he can't sustain his 50% hr/f from May, hitting the ball hard 61% of the time helped his cause last week.
In 2017, Suarez hit well against fastballs, but he had a difficult time with sliders (.619 OPS) and curveballs (.592 OPS). He has better results against the pitches in 2018. While it's still early, Suarez has a 1.458 OPS versus sliders and a 2.250 OPS against curveballs in 2018, but he still chases (19.1 SwStr%) sliders out of the zone (35.7 O-Swing%).
With his current Brls/PA and plenty of hard contact, Suarez should be able to add 18-20 HR to a roster for 2018. If he can sustain his Brls/PA and line drives, he can also provide above-average BA.
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
While we covered Javier Baez (2B, CHC) in depth in April, he's ranked 20th with 10.7 Brls/PA. His power is backed by a top-20 exit velocity (98.6 MPH) and a 39.2 Hard%. Combining his barrels and hard contact with his 46.4 Pull% is good combination for power. Even when his 31.3 HR/FB% dips, he has the backing for 20 more home runs in 2018.
As of May 8, Baez had hit a home run in three consecutive games. Unfortunately, he left last night's game with a groin injury. If a DL stint is in order, it's terrible timing, as he has proven to be a tremendous fantasy value early on. Continue to monitor his plate patience, as he has lowered his K% from 28.3% in 2017 to 19.8% in 2018. If healthy, he has the support for a career year.
