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After running on dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway in March, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to the famed short track this weekend to compete on the concrete. What a relief for some drivers.
But, Bristol is one of the most challenging tracks on the circuit. Turning sub-15 second lap times, things happen very quickly at the World's Fastest Half Mile, so drivers must be alert -- more so than other tracks. And, oh yeah, it happens to be the cutoff race for the Round of 16.
In the past, some drivers have avoided the chaos en route to a respectable finish. Primarily, though, the same drivers run up front, as active drivers have 24 combined wins at Bristol (14 are from the Busch brothers; more on them in a moment). So let's see who you should keep an eye on for Saturday night's 500 lapper.
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Kyle Busch
(DraftKings $11,500 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +400)
On the playoff front, Kyle Busch just needs a solid run, as he enters the race eight points above the cutline. But it's KFB and Bristol, a track he's won at eight previous times: The No. 18 Toyota is going to be towards the front.
Even last year, in which Busch didn't find victory lane until late October, the No. 18 car led 159 laps at the Bristol night race and raced Kevin Harvick hard for the victory. Unfortunately for Busch, the No. 4 Ford edged Busch to the finish line.
Look at this, though: In 31 starts at Bristol, Busch has the aforementioned eight victories (three of the past seven races on concrete), with six additional top-five finishes (including a streak of four straight). He also has a total of 19 top 10s. Spoiler: the No. 18 car is my pick to win on Saturday night, which means Joe Gibbs Racing will sweep the opening round of the postseason. Given this is a 500-lap event, you need to go bigggg with your lineup this week and Busch is a good start.
Kyle Larson
(DraftKings $11,300 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +450)
Another Kyle that I expect to run well on Saturday night is Kyle Larson. In fact, the race will likely come down to both Kyles, such it did in the 2013 spring Xfinity Series race or even the 2018 spring Cup race.
Since entering NASCAR nearly a decade ago, Larson has put on quite the show at BMS and often contends for the win. In 12 Cup starts, the California native has a pair of top-five finishes and seven top 10s. There's no doubt, this time around he will take to the concrete track in the best equipment he's ever been in.
Another reason to watch Larson is he has nothing to lose this weekend. Already locked into the Round of 12, the No. 5 team is racing for playoff points. He does start fifth, though, so there is the potential downside should he have a disappointing run. I don't see that happening.
Kurt Busch
(DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,000 | DK SportsBook +1500)
There's just something about the Busch brothers and Bristol. Kurt Busch took to the Last Great Coliseum by winning his first career Cup race in 2002. Since then, he's earned five additional victories with the last coming in 2018.
In four starts on Bristol's concrete surface since joining Chip Ganassi Racing, Busch has three top-10 finishes, including a runner-up to brother Kyle in 2019.
Two other factors to consider when thinking of selecting Kurt, he enters the race on the cutline in a tie with Alex Bowman (advantage Kurt). And because of his last-place finish last Saturday at Richmond Raceway, the No. 1 Chevrolet will take the green flag from 15th position. Busch is a good pick this weekend, and a really good selection at 15-1 odds for the win.
Kevin Harvick
(DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $11,000 | DK SportsBook +1100)
Kevin Harvick can win anywhere on the Cup schedule. He's that damn good. But, this might be his last best chance to avoid a winless season in 2021.
Why, you ask? The majority of Harvick's best tracks on the schedule have ended in disappointment this season. Reflect back to the two Atlanta races, the No. 4 Ford finished 10th and 11th, respectively. At Michigan four weeks ago, he was a non-factor and finished 14th.
Despite Stewart-Haas Racing's underperformance this season, the team has excelled on 750 horsepower tracks, including Aric Almirola's victory at New Hampshire. Harvick ran well there, too. But when it comes to Bristol, the No. 4 car has won two of the last nine races on the concrete, leading a race-high 226 laps last fall. It's also the one-year anniversary of his last win.
Harvick starts eighth on Saturday evening, and he'll likely contend for at least a top five.
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Brad Keselowski
(DraftKings $8,600 | FanDuel $10,500| DK SportsBook +1600)
Since winning at Talladega in late April, Brad Keselowski has had a season to forget. The one bright side? He announced his next venture in the sport, moving over to Roush Fenway Racing at the conclusion of the season to be a driver/owner.
While Keselowski has only put together 11 top-10 finishes this season, the No. 2 car is sitting 13 points above the cutline entering Bristol, one of his most winningest tracks on the circuit with three checkered flags. Consistency has been an issue, though, as he's earned seven top 10s in 22 Bristol starts.
Another reason to think about adding Keselowski to your lineup is, the No. 2 Ford has led at least 40 laps in five of the last six Bristol races. Two of those races including starting positions of 12th and 13th. On Saturday, he will lineup from 10th and will likely be in contention all night long.
Matt DiBenedetto
(DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $7,500 | DK SportsBook +5000)
Two years ago at the Bristol night race is one to remember and one to forget for Matt DiBenedetto. Then, driving for Leavine Family Racing, it looked like he was going to get to victory lane. Contact with Ryan Newman halted that possibility, allowing Denny Hamlin to get by with less than 10 laps remaining.
In two races on the Bristol concrete with Wood Brothers Racing, DiBenedetto has an average finish of 25th. Having missed the 2021 playoffs, the California native needs a solid run to secure his immediate future for next year. Bristol might be his last best shot to deliver win No. 100 for the Wood Brothers.
With an 18th-place finish last week, DiBenedetto will start from 19th position on Saturday night. Being right in the middle of the field, the No. 21 team has room to gain additional points for your team.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
(DraftKings $7,200 | FanDuel $7,200 | DK SportsBook +8000)
Without a doubt, Bristol is Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s best non-superspeedway track on the circuit. In 16 Bristol concrete starts, the two-time Xfinity Series champion has four top-five finishes, including a pair of runner-up results.
Unfortunately for Stenhouse, he's on a streak of five straight finishes of 24th or worse at Bristol; riding a streak of three straight DNFs. The No. 47 Chevrolet also finished shotgun on the field last September. So it can only improve, right?
Starting 23rd, Stenhouse has room to work with on Saturday evening. The No. 47 team has just two top-10 finishes this season, one of which was a second-place finish at the Bristol dirt race to Joey Logano. Maybe, Bristol will treat Stenhouse well yet again.
Ryan Preece
(DraftKings $6,000 | FanDuel $5,000 | DK SportsBook +20000)
Looks like we're all on board the JTG Daugherty Racing train this weekend, huh? Ryan Preece has just four Bristol starts, but ended last year's night race in ninth position -- his first top 10 of the 2020 season.
Compared to last year, Preece has been much more competitive, already earning four top-10 finishes (new career high for Preece). While typically competitive on short tracks, the No. 37 car has had its fair share of misfortune, most recently finishing 25th last week at Richmond.
Because of that, Preece will start 27th on Saturday evening. Like DiBenedetto, he, too, needs a standout run, not knowing his 2022 plans. There's points to be gained by lining up 27th.
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