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Here we go, it's time for the Round of 12 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, which kicks off Sundaty evening (Sept. 27) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
After the opening round of the postseason, the playoff picture became a tad bit clearer. But you can throw that round out the window because this round consists of the 1.5-mile track in Sin City, the 2.66-mile superspeedway at Talladega and the 17-turn Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL.
There are plenty of words that come to mind describing the Round of 12, but the one that stands out the most: unpredictable. With Talladega and the ROVAL lingering, many drivers believe this weekend's race at Vegas is the second-most important track in the playoffs, only behind the championship event at Phoenix Raceway.
Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!With that said, let's see who should be in your DraftKings lineup.
My DFS Lineup - South Point 400
Kevin Harvick ($11,700)
Career at Las Vegas: 22 starts, 2 wins, 679 laps led
Average finish at Las Vegas: 13.8
Uh, did you see the opening round of the playoffs? Scratch that, have you watched any part of the 2020 season? Harvick's No. 4 team is putting together one of the best seasons of all-time.
Don't believe me? Through 29 races, Harvick has a career-high nine victories. He's scored 19 top-five and 24 top-10 finishes, leading 1,416 laps. His average finish is a shabby 6.2, marking the best average result since Jeff Gordon in 1998 (5.7).
Look, since Harvick joined Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014, he's been one of the fastest cars each and every race. But this year there have been no silly flukes stopping the No. 4 team; bad pit stops, mechanical failures, etc. Straight up, he's getting better with age.
This weekend the No. 4 car will start from the pole, after dominating last weekend's race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Look for clean air at the start to vault Harvick to lead plenty of laps, at a track he's led at least 88 laps in three of the past five races. Don't be a fool, start Harvick.
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,600)
Career at Las Vegas: 17 starts, 2 wins, 293 laps led
Average finish at Las Vegas: 11.4
While Harvick's numbers are stout at Vegas, Truex and Joey Logano have won a lot at the track recently. Prior to finishing 20th in the spring, the New Jersey native had a streak of five consecutive top-eight finishes at the intermediate track, including a victory at the track in last year's postseason.
Also, Truex's No. 19 team is due for a victory. In 29 races this season, he's visited victory lane just once (Martinsville Speedway). But aside from making a bold move on Chase Elliott for the lead in the Southern 500 three weeks ago and a loose wheel last week at Bristol, the team has nine top fives in the last 11 races.
With Truex's recent record at Vegas, plus how dominant he's been at 1.5-mile tracks over the past handful of seasons, he's a sure bet for your lineup, despite the price.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900)
Career at Las Vegas: 7 starts, 0 wins, 9 laps led
Average finish at Las Vegas: 21.0
When DiBenedetto finished runner-up to Logano at Vegas back in February, people thought 2020 would be his coming out party, as he was entering the season in the best equipment he's ever driven. Unfortunately for him, that hasn't necessarily been the case, with just one addition top-five result with a total of seven top 10s, the same he had last year with Leavine Family Racing.
Add in the fact DiBenedetto has seven consecutive results outside the top 10 and had an average finish of 19th in the opening round of the playoffs, you're probably thinking why choose him? Recent memory suggests to, based off February's race, even though he ran in the back half of the top 10 the majority of the race. Because of his mediocre Bristol race, he also starts mid-pack in 19th, on par with what his last three races have been.
Let's face it, DiBenedetto is driving for his career right now, and needs the ship to turn soon. With Team Penske having Austin Cindric in the pipeline, he needs to start performing. After all, the pressure off chasing a championship this season is off.
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Alex Bowman ($7,300)
Career at Las Vegas: 7 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Las Vegas: 20.7
Bowman's numbers at Vegas aren't all that impressive, scoring just one top-10 finish in seven starts at LVMS. But flashback to the spring race, when the No. 88 Chevrolet was chasing down Ryan Blaney for the lead in the waning laps. Then a caution flew, Bowman pitted and finished a disappointing 13th.
While Bowman wasn't happy to finish 13th, he was pleased in the speed of his racecar. On top of that, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Elliott swept the first two stages before having a tire failure in the final stage. Throughout the season, though, intermediates have been the best tracks for the No. 88 team. Remember the Coca-Cola 600? He led a race-high 164 laps.
Don't sleep on Bowman, as he's made it to the Round of 12 for a second straight season. The summer months were miserable for his race team, but he enters Vegas with four top-10 finishes in the last five races, and was running well last week until he reported a loose wheel. His eighth-place starting position is a small cause for concern should something go wrong, but for the price, he's worth it.
Cole Custer ($6,600)
Career at Las Vegas: 2 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Las Vegas: 22.0
As the 2020 season has progressed, Custer has arguably been the most improved rookie driver. Because of his victory at Kentucky Speedway and no other rookies making the postseason, he's guaranteed to be crowned Rookie of the Year.
Sure, Custer was bounced after the opening round of the postseason with finishes of 12th, 14th and 23rd, respectively. But as the season stands and you split it down the middle, the No. 41 car had just one top-10 finish in the opening 15 races of the season, while scoring five such finishes since.
Because of his lackluster performance at Bristol, Custer will lineup 22nd on Sunday at Vegas, which happens to be his average finishing position at the track. But I expect more out of the No. 41 team, as he's scored two top 10s -- including the win at Kentucky -- in the last three races on 1.5-mile tracks.
Corey LaJoie ($5,500)
Career at Las Vegas: 5 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Las Vegas: 25.2
I know, I know, it seems like every week I have LaJoie on my team, but when you start off with big guns, sometimes you pay the price with small teams on the back-end. Fortunately for you, though, Vegas is LaJoie's best intermediate track in the Cup Series.
In five starts at the track, LaJoie has a pair of 16th-place finishes, including earlier this season. With the exception of the season opening Daytona 500, 16th is where the team has topped out, earning three such finishes this season.
LaJoie is another driver who doesn't have set plans for 2021 yet, but is not returning to Go FAS Racing. He's failed to post a top-20 finish in 11 races and needs a strong performance to help his chances for next season. Because he finished 33rd at Bristol and sits 29th in points, he will take the green flag in 31st, meaning there's only one way to really go: forward.
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