RADIO
The day I took home $1.3 million on DraftKings was a dream come true. If you play DFS, you live for that moment! That Sunday, Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season, I felt like I had found the holy grail by winning the DraftKings Millionaire Maker tournament. It was surreal, exciting and nerve racking, but most of all, life changing. Contrary to most DFS pros, I do not use a DFS lineup generator to create hundreds of lineups -- I roll with one lineup every week, created manually, and finalized every Sunday. You can scroll down to see my winning lineup from Week 3 below!
The same strategy that I used in Week 3 is applied here today in this article. I start by zoning in on my favorite games to stack, along with recognizing which positions offer the most value. Typically, if you want to win big, you need to take calculated risks -- but taking down first place doesn’t mean you need to avoid all the chalk. Simple rule: don’t fade players you love just because other people love them too. So in this article I will talk about which chalky players I would target/fade and show you which players I have identified that will be contrarian and outperform their projection.
I have spent countless hours analyzing data and stats to help me win over the years. I use a bunch of different tools, read a ton of articles, and listen to fantasy football podcasts daily. I use every inch and every second to help me gather the information I need to help me succeed week in and week out. My goal here is to help you experience the success that I have had and turn it into some big cash as well! Let’s get down to business.
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Chalk Players to Target for DraftKings DFS Lineups
WR Chris Godwin $5,900 – Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski have been ruled out and Mike Evans will be shadowed by up-and-coming corner Jaylon Johnson. I don’t like taking Bucs' receivers unless there are injuries or bad matchups, and in this case, there are both. Godwin leads the team in receptions and at $5,900, he is a DFS bargain. I would bet that he sees 8-to-12 targets, which he can turn into 100+ yards (nice bonus) and a score. He’s projected to be about 22% owned but do not fade this chalk.
RB Darrel Williams $5,800 – I love when I can get players that are going to be heavily involved in a shootout and are also middle of the pack in pricing. The Chiefs clearly trust Williams ,as they gave him 25 opportunities in his first start of the year. In a 58-point O/U, it’s usually lucrative to have at least one of the RBs, so Williams at this price is a no brainer to me. Granted, he didn’t run the ball too well last week, but the Washington Football Team (I can’t believe this is still their name) is way worse against the pass than they are against the run. If he just does a little bit better running the ball against the Titans, he will smash his solid performance from last week.
WR Davante Adams $8,900 – As I mentioned above, the WFT is not good against the pass this year. In fact, they are ranked dead last in pass defense this year. Davante Adams is a guy that can always finish number one on the slate, so spending up for him is not something to fear. If you want to nitpick, the only downside is potential game flow with the Packers favored at home by a TD -- but I think Washington will be able to put up points on this defense, playing yet again without their top corner Jaire Alexander. Adams will probably be owned at about a 18% clip or more, but I think he finishes with the most points on the slate tomorrow.
Chalk Players to Fade for DraftKings DFS Lineups
RB Darrell Henderson $6,600 – This is so tough for me because I am from Detroit, and I have watched us get torched through the air and on the ground for years. So why fade Henderson? There are a few reasons why, so let’s start with number 1: It’s the Matthew Stafford show tomorrow. Sean McVay is going to unleash his MVP quarterback against his former team. Number 2: I like a few RBs with similar upside that are cheaper and will be more contrarian. Below I will show you who those players are. And number 3: Henderson is the chalkiest player on the slate tomorrow, and if he busts like Kareem Hunt did last week (I faded him) then I have a much better chance of placing or even winning a top prize. I could be dead wrong, but I’m convinced that Stafford is going off tomorrow.
WR Jakobi Meyers $5,300 – Why is Meyers projected to be owned at around 16%? I would much rather have Jaylen Waddle for $300 more, or even Darnell Mooney for $700 less. I don’t trust the Patriots passing game at all. I do feel bad for Meyers though, as he still hasn’t scored his first receiving TD of his career. It feels like he gets one reversed every week. Maybe he proves me wrong tomorrow, but I am not betting on it. Good luck to you if you do.
Best Contrarian Plays for DraftKings DFS Lineups
WR Jaylen Waddle $5,600 – OK, now here is a player worth targeting for your DFS lineups. Projected ownership is right around 5% and he is going against one of the worst pass defenses in football, the Falcons. Waddle turned 13 targets last week into 10 receptions and two touchdowns, but only 70 yards. It was still a great game statistically for him -- but if you give him the ball 10 times a game, odds are he should have way more yards than that and I expect him to be used again heavily. I think he gets over the century mark and scores again this week.
RB Damien Harris $5,700 – In Week 5 I highlighted Harris as one of my favorite plays on the DFS slate. I was heartbroken with the result -- he scored his first TD in the beginning of the 2nd quarter, and then “fumbled” in the end zone four minutes later in what would have been his second score. After that, it was all downhill as Harris kept getting hurt, and it looked like he may have been in the Bill Belichick doghouse. But the very next week, we saw the Patriots give him 19 opportunities, so we know that he is not in the doghouse. Oh yeah, do you remember that huge run earlier this season where Harris carried eight defenders into the end zone? Yeah, that was against the Jets. It’s looking like a projected ownership of around 5% for Harris, and people seem scared. Don’t be one of those people.
Value RBs Worth Looking at for DraftKings DFS Lineups
- Miles Sanders - $5,100
- Chase Edmonds - $5,600
Value WRs Worth Looking at for DraftKings DFS Lineups
- Darnell Mooney - $4,600
- Mecole Hardman - $4,300
- Rashod Bateman - $3,400
Other Week 7 DFS Lineup Picks for DraftKings
- Tight End Play of the Week: Ricky Seals-Jones - $3,700
- Quarterback Play of the Week: Ryan Tannehill - $6,400
- Defense Plays of the Week: Arizona D/ST - $3,000 and New England D/ST - $3,400
My Winning Lineup
Below is my winning lineup from the DraftKings Milly Maker in Week 3:
Good luck everybody!
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