RADIO
Everyone knows how it went down for the Philadelphia Eagles in their improbable run to a Super Bowl victory over the New England Patriots last year. It all started when franchise quarterback Carson Wentz tore his ACL in Week 14 on the road against the Rams. Nick Foles entered the game and led them to a 43-35 win over the Rams and then two more wins in the regular season before running the table and winning Super Bowl MVP honors in a wild finish in which he went toe to toe with Tom Brady in a high-scoring shootout on the biggest stage in football.
In a storyline eerily similar to 2017, Foles was called on again in Week 15 in Los Angeles against the Rams with Wentz out with a fractured vertebra in his back. He miraculously led them to a 30-23 upset victory on the road to keep the team's playoff chances alive at 7-7. The biggest difference between this year and last year is that this year the Eagles are scratching and clawing just to have a shot at a postseason run. In 2017, Foles entered the fray with the team sitting at 10-2, so he was mainly trying to just get into a rhythm for the postseason and help the team secure home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Philadelphia will need to win these last two games and get some help. Can Foles wave the magic wand and do it again? And more importantly for fantasy owners, how will this year's skill players around him fare with fantasy titles on the line in Week 16? Let's take a look at each position and how they match up with the Texans at home this Sunday...
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Quarterback
Foles has cemented himself as a Philly legend, but aside from his 27-touchdown season in 2013 in his second year in the league, he hasn't done a whole lot for fantasy owners. In the three games he started to close out the regular season in 2017, he was only good in one of them, tossing four touchdowns against the Giants.
It wasn't until the NFC championship against the Vikings when he really turned it on, and he finished with 725 yards, six touchdowns and one interception in the NFC championship game and the Super Bowl.
The 29-year-old looked terrible in the preseason this year and threw for 451 yards, a touchdown and an interception in his two starts to begin the 2018 season with Wentz still recovering from knee surgery. Against the Rams last Sunday night he wasn't all that special either, going 24-for-31 for 270 yards and a pick.
He's averaging a measly 6.38 yards per completion on 113 attempts this year. In his seven-year career in the regular season, Foles averages 6.99 yards per completion. He averaged 9.16 yards per completion in his three postseason games last year.
He's a calming presence for this offense and the team has rallied around him, but he needs repetitions and attempts to get going. Houston's secondary is definitely beatable, but their defensive front led by J.J. Watt is scary. If Foles doesn't get the ball out quickly on Sunday, he could have a long day.
He's certainly capable of surprising us again, but I wouldn't recommend betting on him with a fantasy championship on the line. Consider him a low-end QB2 in his fourth start of the year.
Wide Receiver
Alshon Jeffery had one of his best games of the year Sunday night against the Rams, catching all eight of his targets for 160 yards, including a 50-yard bomb from Foles. Before that, Jeffery hadn't gone over 50 yards receiving since Oct. 21.
His season got off to a late start due to injury, so he didn't play when Foles started the first two games of the season. Can we count on him to be better now that Foles is under center? There's a little more to like for Jeffery now that Foles is in there, as the signal caller appears to favor him. Jeffery caught four touchdowns in Foles' six starts last year, including the postseason.
Houston's secondary hasn't been terrible against receivers this year, but they have been known to give up the big play, which Jeffery is known for. Philly's top receiver's arrow is pointing up, but he's a boom-or-bust WR3 this weekend.
As for Nelson Agholor and Golden Tate, they are no better than fourth or fifth in the target pecking order for Foles behind Ertz, Jeffery and probably Darren Sproles. Agholor had two big games with Foles to start the year, but that's really only because Jeffery wasn't active yet. He had just one catch on two targets last week and wasn't much of a factor when Foles played last year either.
Tate caught all five of his targets against the Rams for 43 yards, but he's mostly been a non-factor in six games since being acquired from the Lions. He's unlikely to suddenly be a force for fantasy owners with Foles at the helm.
Running Back
The Eagles have been running with a committee approach ever since Jay Ajayi went down early in the year. Rookie Josh Adams has seen the most run of late, getting at least 15 carries in three of the last four games, including 20-plus in two games. He's been non-existent in the passing game, though, so he's more of a touchdown-dependent, low-end RB2 that's used on early downs.
Further complicating Adams' value for Week 16 is Wendell Smallwood, who vultured two goal-line chances on Sunday night. Smallwood's 10 carries were the second most he's had this season and only the third time all year he's had double-digit carries. He's the least attractive fantasy option in this backfield and is merely a DFS dart throw.
The veteran Darren Sproles has only played in four games this year due to a hamstring injury that he suffered in the season opener. In his three games since returning, he's scored two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving) and has six catches in the last two games. He'll serve primarily as the pass-catching back, giving him some appeal in deeper PPR leagues as an RB3/flex.
However, as most fantasy owners know, these three-headed committee backfields are tough to predict or rely on for points in fantasy leagues, much less with all the marbles on the line. Houston's defensive front poses a tough matchup for the ground game as well, making Adams, Smallwood and Sproles potential letdowns in Week 16.
Tight End
Zach Ertz has let his owners down so far in the fantasy playoffs with eight catches for 60 yards and no scores the last two weeks. He hasn't found the end zone since Nov. 25 against the Giants. Can you trust him in the fantasy finals?
Of course you can. He's had 25 targets the last three weeks combined and is No. 2 in scoring tight ends in fantasy behind only Travis Kelce. Ertz also leads all tight ends in 2018 with 136 targets. In the three games, Foles has started this year, he's targeted Ertz 30 times.
The Texans can be beaten by tight ends as well. They give up the eighth most fantasy points per week (14.4) to TEs this season. Have faith in firing up Ertz as an elite TE1 with everything on the line this weekend.
