RADIO
Heading into Sunday's (May 23) inaugural NASCAR Cup Series race at Circuit of the Americas, there are a plethora of unknowns. What will the starting lineup look like? Will it rain? Who will be quick if it doesn't rain? See what I'm getting at?
For just the third time this season, Cup drivers had practice, which was a 50-minute session in a heavy downpour. With the forecast projecting there's a 60-70% chance of rain during the race, definitely look at the practice results to see who was good in yesterday's session. But one little slip up and there day could go awry.
Should the famed road course stay dry, expect the typical drivers that run up front while turning left and right do so again. Don't worry, we'll go over both right.... now!
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Martin Truex Jr.
(DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +550)
This week is interesting because for just the fifth time in the last handful of years, qualifying will be on the morning of the race. That means these projections are a little tougher, not knowing how many points will be on the table for where drivers start.
However, Martin Truex Jr. should almost always be in your fantasy lineups at a road course. On DraftKings, the No. 19 Toyota has an acceptable price where you could get another big-name, road course ace on your team (more on that in a minute). FanDuel, though, not so much.
Truex was a mediocre 23rd in practice, but remember it rained. Should it rain in the race, you may want to shun away spending the money on the No. 19 car, but there's a reason he's got good odds to win the race (four road course wins).
Chase Elliott
(DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $14,500 | DK SportsBook +250)
Then there's a reason why Chase Elliott is the favorite. Since 2018, the No. 9 Chevrolet has been damn near unstoppable at road courses winning five of the last eight road course races at the Cup level. The five triumphs already ranks him tied for fifth all time with road course wins.
Again, we'll have a better indication of prices once qualifying is over. But currently, Elliott, like Truex, has a great price value on DraftKings, whereas he's a big high on FanDuel. Some players might not be able to put one of these drivers on their FanDuel team, let alone two. On DraftKings, surely you could find a way to fit both.
In Saturday's practice, Elliott had the fifth quickest time, though did for a spin in the rain. Don't be concerned, the No. 9 car will be fast. The last time NASCAR visited a new road course (Daytona, last August), it was Elliott that cruised to victory, leading 34 of 65 laps.
Kyle Busch
(DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $12,500 | DK SportsBook +800)
Personally, I consider Kyle Busch the favorite for COTA. Whenever the tw0-time Cup champion can get added seat time prior to the Cup race, he's always better. After admittedly struggling for over a year, he's pointed his finger at having a lack of practice.
Well, Busch posted the fourth quickest lap in practice on Saturday, best of the Toyotas. Plus he ran the Xfinity Series race and laid a whippin' on the field, leading 35 of 46 laps.
Over the course of his career, Busch has been no slouch at road courses. He's scored multiple wins at both Watkins Glen International and Sonoma Raceway. Don't overlook the No. 18 car.
Austin Cindric
(DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $8,200 | DK SportsBook +2500)
This is where it gets fun. In his Xfinity tenure, Austin Cindric has proven he can win a lot at road courses in a stock car (four times). But on Saturday at COTA, his No. 22 Ford was really a non-factor, rounding out the top five.
Even more, Cindric will be making just his fifth career Cup start on Sunday. Multiple Team Penske drivers have stated this year they believe the weakest part of their program is road courses. Ryan Blaney sure put that to the test in The Clash, when he was spun by Elliott through the final chicane.
If you're a gambling person, which you are if you're reading this article, I'd put the odds very high on Cindric earning his first top-10 finish on Sunday. And if it rains, potentially a win. Cindric was 18th in practice.
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AJ Allmendinger
(DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $8,000| DK SportsBook +3000)
Speaking of road course aces, that fits AJ Allmendinger to a tee. When the California native first came to NASCAR, he was known as a road course specialist. In 2014, he picked up JTG Daugherty Racing's lone Cup win at Watkins Glen, battling Marcos Ambrose to the checkered flag.
This year, Allmendinger's lone Cup start came at the Daytona road course, where he finished seventh despite starting at the rear and having a speeding penalty on pit road in the middle of the race. The fact the No. 16 Chevrolet was able to rebound to seventh says enough.
With 30-1 odds of winning, it might be worth putting a few bucks down on Allmendinger. Also, don't be alarmed by his 22nd quickest lap in practice -- the No. 16 team wasn't able to get onto the track until a few minutes to go (ran just three laps) as NASCAR had issues getting all cars through technical inspection in a timely manner.
Christopher Bell
(DraftKings $8,300 | FanDuel $9,500 | DK SportsBook +1800)
Remember the last time the Cup Series ran on a road course? It was Bell that earned his first Cup triumph at Daytona, passing Joey Logano coming to the white flag.
In the three months since, the No. 20 team has had many ups and downs, currently sitting 12th in the championship standings. At tracks you expect Bell to run well at, he's struggled (finished 21st, four laps down last weekend at Dover International Speedway).
Theories suggest, Bell should earn another top-10 finish on Sunday, if not better. The No. 20 Toyota was sixth on the speed chart in Saturday's practice and he's also won at Road America in the Xfinity Series. Bell is an underrated road course driver.
Michael McDowell
(DraftKings $7,400 | FanDuel $8,500 | DK SportsBook +5000)
Someone who's not an underrated road course driver is Michael McDowell. In fact, until this year, most of his standout runs had come at road courses or tracks where teams can have a strategy similar to road courses (had top-10 finishes at Pocono Raceway, Indianapolis Motor Speedway last year).
In February, McDowell backed up his Daytona 500 win by finishing eighth at the Daytona road course. That was after he cut down a tire on the opening lap, having to surge through the field. But McDowell's experience on road course paid off, as it should again on Sunday.
The confidence in the No. 34 team is sky high this year -- as it should be after winning the Great American Race. Plus, McDowell turned the 10th quickest lap in practice. Should it rain, look for this team to be one of the frontrunners.
Chris Buescher
(DraftKings $6,900| FanDuel $7,700 | DK SportsBook +6600)
Chris Buescher has had a big week: Fastenal re-signed with Roush Fenway Racing through 2024 and Steve Newmark, RFR president, said he expects Buescher to be with the team well beyond then. In a climate of year-to-year contracts, that'll give any driver an extra boost of confidence.
But on the racing front, Buescher goes under the radar on road courses. He earned his first Xfinity victory at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course in 2014 driving for Roush Fenway. And at the Cup level he has a top-five finish at the Daytona road course, last August.
Of any driver that are real longshots, Buescher at 66-1 would be the best value pick this week. But even that might be a stretch for the win. However, Buescher is in the midst of his best season to date, so another quiet top 10 wouldn't hurt your fantasy team, either.
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