RADIO
It's so good to have DFS back! We got our toes wet with a nice 14 game Main slate last night, and the MLB scheduling gods have blessed us with a slate today that has most teams playing under the lights. Eleven games make up the Main slate, and I'll be focusing my picks to help you take on those games for a 7:05 EDT start.
Before we get into player analysis, let's take a look at some of the biggest implied run totals from our friends out in Las Vegas. The Indians lead the pack with an implied run total of 5.8, followed by the Mariners (5.1), Twins (4.9) and Reds (4.7). Outside of Cleveland's total, none of those are that appealing - but it makes sense, as there are a number of quality and elite arms on this slate. As for moneyline favorites, Seattle is up top at -199, followed by Cleveland (-175), Houston (-172), Philadelphia (-172) and the Dodgers (-157).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/21/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLuch.
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Carlos Carrasco - SP, at TEX ($9,700)
Cookie Carrasco is my top arm on the board tonight for cash games and tournaments. That may seem surprising with guys like Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw also toeing the bump this evening, but I'm not in love with Verlander's matchup against the Angels and I still don't quite trust Kershaw (especially with a five-figure price tag). Carrasco has some pretty damn crazy home/road splits, and as such, I target the Indians' pitcher when they're outside of Cleveland. On the road, he's allowed an opponent wOBA of just .258 (.342 at home) and a slugging percentage of just .338. His K percentage sits at 26%, which is just about even with his home figure, but the HR/9 numbers are drastically different as well - 0.83 on the road, 1.48 at home. He should be backed with offense tonight as the Indians have the highest implied run total and are also one of the biggest moneyline favorites. As for the opponent, they have a 26.8% K rate against right-handed pitching this season, which is attractive and should help Carrasco pay off his price tag and then some.
Vincent Velasquez - SP, vs SDP ($8,300)
Velasquez is one of the arms I'm most intrigued with for tournaments tonight and the guy I'll be rolling with in multiple lineups. He is certainly not without risk, but I like the matchup here for him against San Diego. Like Carrasco, Velasquez has a lower allowed wOBA and opponent slugging percentage on the road, but a drastically higher strikeout rate at home (30%) versus the road (24%). He's at home tonight, so the home run risk is elevated, but this San Diego team is one we like to target when looking for strikeout upside. Their projected lineup tonight owns a 26% K rate against righties to go with a .292 wOBA that doesn't strike much fear in me.
Also Consider: Felix Hernandez - SP, vs CWS ($7,700)
FanDuel DFS Infielders
John Ryan Murphy - C, vs COL ($2,100)
I don't often advocate for playing catchers now that FanDuel doesn't require it, but I have interest in Murphy today as a punt-with-upside in tournaments. He is streaky, and not one I'd suggest you play in cash, but he has been good against lefties this season. Since the start of 2018, he owns a .352 wOBA and a .262 ISO split against southpaws.
Edwin Encarnacion - 1B, at TEX ($3,800)
You're going to want to find a way to squeeze as many Cleveland bats into your lineup today as you can. The difficulty is that most are priced incredibly (and approproately) high. Edwin, however, is quite a steal today and sits atop a lot of my projections. Encarnacion gets a pretty easy matchup against fastball-throwing Bartolo Colon and he does boast a .295 ISO split against right-handed pitching this season.
Scooter Gennett - 2B, vs PIT ($3,900)
Scooter and his Reds teammates - particularly the lefties - have big upside tonight in Cincinnatti. Gennett owns really strong splits against right-handed pitching this season (.372 wOBA, .200 ISO) and they face off against Nick Kingham. Kingham has allowed a lot of hard contact to both sides, but lefties have fared the best against him with a .361 wOBA and a .552 slugging percentage allowed.
Eduardo Escobar - 3B, at KCR ($3,300)
Let me start off this section by saying I do really like Escobar here, but if your lineup construction allows it - get Jose Ramirez in there. Escobar has a pretty good matchup as well at a more comfortable price point. The switch hitter has been particularly strong against righties this season, posting a .363 wOBA and a .280 ISO.
Nick Ahmed - SS, vs COL ($2,600)
Ahmed is a realy nice value here - he hits near the top of this fairly potent Arizona order and he's been strong against southpaws all season. To date, he's posted a .337 wOBA and a .229 ISO split. He's also posted a 40% hard hit rate in the last three series he's played in. I'd like to call out Trea Turner and Francisco Lindor too, though, as guys I'd slightly prefer here if your lineup construction allows it.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Nelson Cruz - OF, vs CWS ($4,000)
Dylan Covey has gone back to being atrocious, failing miserably in his last five starts. As such, I want to target against him today in Seattle and my favorite target in teal is Nelson Cruz. Cruz thrives in righty-righty matchups and since the start of 2018 his wOBA and ISO splits sit at .393 and .279, respectively.
Corey Dickerson - OF, at CIN ($3,300)
Dickerson is a really nice value in the leadoff role in a win-able matchup in Cincinatti - where he gets an offensive park upgrade. He has a .331 wOBA split (about the same as his mark against lefty pitchers), but the ISO mark of .191 is nearly 100 points higher than when he faces a southpaw.
