RADIO
Last year's class of rookie quarterbacks was nothing to write home about. Although there were some well-hyped gunslingers coming out of college in 2014, none compared to the immediate success of the 2012 class.
There's still plenty of talent among the sophomores heading into 2015. Four out of five of these guys find themselves on cellar-dwelling teams, as young promising quarterbacks tend to end up. Let's take a look at which playmakers will see the most success in their second season in the NFL.
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The Starters
1) Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
2) Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
It would be tough to keep a straight face and say that Derek Carr was a good quarterback in 2014. Of all qualified starters, he ranked 26th in both QBR and completion percentage, leading his team to ten consecutive losses to start the season. Still, he managed to be the most valuable rookie QB from a fantasy perspective. He lead all rookies with 21 TDs and 3,270 total passing yards.
Clearly, the battle for the top spot on this list is between Carr and Teddy Bridgewater. While Bridgewater may be the overall better athlete of the two, there's much more to like about Carr's fantasy impact moving forward. Chiefly, Oakland passed the ball more than any NFL team in 2014, whereas Minnesota is more focused on its rushing attack. It's unlikely this will change in 2015. With a refreshed Adrian Peterson in the backfield, the Vikings will presumably run the ball even more than they did in 2014. On the contrary, Derek Carr has an exciting new target in rookie Amari Cooper. With likes of Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Kenbrell Tompkins out on the wings, Carr will have a much higher chance of success in his sophomore campaign.
Still, Bridgewater has a lot to offer. He's one of the most mobile QBs in the league, as he racked up over 200 rushing yards in 47 attempts in his rookie season. Also, he completed 64.2% of his passes in 2014, showing that he possesses the most valuable skill set of an NFL QB: accuracy. Teddy has a bright future ahead of him, but it will likely be a few more years until he develops into a true star.
3) Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
For the most part, Blake Bortles is third on this list by default. Carr, Bridgewater and Bortles are the only rookie quarterbacks from the 2014 class projected to start for their teams in 2015. At the end of the day, any starter possesses more value than even the best backup. Even still, it's hard to find nice things to say about his first shot against NFL defenses. His 69.5 QB rating ranked dead last in the league among qualified starters. He also managed the league's worst TD percentage (2.3), second worst interception percentage (3.6), and was sacked a league-leading 55 times. The latter statistic not only displays an inability to pick up opposing blitzes, but also highlights the incompetency of the offensive line in Jacksonville, which does not bode well for future success.
Unfortunately, the front office in Jacksonville did little to aid the reeling offensive line in the offseason. On the bright side, Bortles will be surrounded by a fresh, young cast of supporting characters who will help fuel his success. Rookie running back T.J. Yeldon will likely take some of the pressure off the passing attack. Wide receivers Marquise Lee, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns will all be returning for their sophomore campaigns as well. With one year of experience under their belts, Bortles and his receiving corps should be much more polished in 2015. Most importantly, the Jaguars added tight end and red-zone expert Julius Thomas during the offseason.
It's worth noting that Bortles has impressed many in training camp thus far. According to GM David Caldwell, the difference between the second-year QB from last year to now is "night and day". There's a lot of talk going around that Bortles experienced "dead arm" in his rookie year, as well as a litany of other excuses. If the reports have any substance, Bortles will be ready for a resurgent sophomore campaign with a wide array of talented threats around him.
The Other Guys
4) Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns
Here we go.
Will Johnny Manziel ever live up to the immense hype and attention he receives or will he go down as the tragic football parable that we are all secretly expecting? It's impossible to say. The only reason he finds himself on this list is because, along with Titans QB Zach Mettenberger, Manziel is one of the only sophomore quarterbacks with an imaginable road to a starting job in 2015.
What is there to say about Johnny's rookie season? Aside from the off-field debauchery, Manziel was thoroughly unimpressive with the football. His 51.4 completion percentage was good for 60th among all QBs that threw at least one pass last year, and his 42.0 QB rating is hardly worthy of a player occupying a roster spot. Of course, Manziel's sample size was too small to make any real conclusions. As far as the eye test goes, Johnny Football might need a new nickname.
Here's the thing: Manziel's competition is Josh McCown, who was perhaps the worst qualified QB in 2014. Aside from Blake Bortles, McCown displayed the worst QB rating in the league (70.5), the third worst completion percentage (56.3) and led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the league's worst record. In terms of advice, I wouldn't touch any member of the Browns offense with a ten-foot pole. However, it is not unimaginable to foresee Manziel taking over the starting role early in the season and putting up some serious numbers by the time January rolls around.
5) Jimmy Garoppolo, New England Patriots
This one is just for fun. Obviously, Jimmy Garoppolo will not be taking over the starting job from Tom Brady this year. Or the next year, and probably not the year after that either. Brady will hang on to football until he sucks.
But, we have to be practical. There is a very real possibility that Garoppolo will be starting the first four games of the season. If that does happen to be the case, he could very well be a valuable fantasy play during his time on the field. In his 69 snaps played in 2014, Garoppolo held a 70.4 completion percentage and a 101.2 QB rating. It's a well-known fact that Bill Belichick can make any player good. Having a weapon like Rob Gronkowski helps, too. In DFS and 2 QB leagues, Garoppolo could be a worthy move in the early weeks of the season.
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