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Jon Anderson's Shortstop Tiered Rankings and Projections

We are moving on to shortstop today in the tiered fantasy baseball rankings and projections series! Check out the rest of what I've completed so far at the links below!

First Base
Second Base
Third Base

The shortstop position has become quite deep for fantasy purposes over the last several years. In the older times, we would typically find a bunch of defensive specialists that were quite light-hitting at the plate. Nowadays though, that's just not the case. The best infielders with the leather are quite often the best at the dish as well. Let's dive in and check on the position from a high level.

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Tier One

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1 1.9 614 111 43 104 26 .285
Trea Turner 2 1.8 651 109 25 85 32 .303
Bo Bichette 3 5.3 645 102 28 91 21 .292

Three first-rounders here, and all three are in the top half of the first round as well. The fantasy upside on Tatis is unmatched here, but the questions about his shoulder have caused Trea Turner to be taken ahead of quite more often than not. If Tatis is healthy, he will likely crush Turner's value just because he has much more raw power, which is why I'm taking him ahead of Trea and hoping that shoulder holds up.

It might seem a little premature to have Bichette in the top tier this early on in his career, but what we saw last year from him was so impressive that it's justified. He's a fine consolation prize in the first round - not many players will give you 25+ homers, 20+ steals, and a .290+ batting average.

 

Tier Two

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Trevor Story 4 39 633 90 27 81 22 .254
Marcus Semien 5 33 665 96 31 85 11 .259
Corey Seager 6 76 589 86 26 85 2 .291
Wander Franco 7 55 622 89 18 80 8 .293
Francisco Lindor 8 50 647 90 26 82 14 .255
Tim Anderson 9 35 623 97 21 70 19 .293
Xander Bogaerts 10 44 639 94 26 88 6 .285

There's a steep drop down to Tier Two here, but this is a large group of players. These are mostly all solid contributors across the board, but you can poke slight holes in every name here.

I am well ahead of the field on Seager as you can see, so I imagine ending up with quite a bit of him on my teams this year. Very few hitters possess the elite contact and power combination that he does, which is why I can justify having him here despite the really low steals projection.

The upside crown would have to go with Franco, but he's also probably the most likely name here to really underwhelm for fantasy this year. Just like that, the top-10 shortstops are off the board - so you should really consider adding one of these names to your team if you go elsewhere in the first round.

 

Tier Three

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Jorge Polanco 11 79 639 90 26 82 9 .266
Javier Baez 12 64 590 80 28 84 15 .253
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 13 81 555 85 21 63 23 .241

Here we have Polanco, who is solid in everything without being super great at anything, and then Baez/Chisholm, who should both contribute well in HR+SB, but will really crush your team's batting average (most likely). Polanco for safety, Baez for the best raw HR+SB projection, and Jazz for the upside.

 

Tier Four

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Carlos Correa 14 94 616 84 26 86 1 .274
Willy Adames 15 132 593 77 25 73 6 .255
Jake Cronenworth 16 116 602 81 17 71 6 .273
Dansby Swanson 17 125 634 82 25 77 10 .251

We are really giving up something now. None of these players project to be positive steals contributors, and there really aren't any numbers mentioned above that jump off the page. Correa's landing spot in free agency will make a difference on his projection, so depending on that, we may have to move him up or down a bit. The upside pick is Adames, and he's one of my favorite SS targets overall after seeing what he did after leaving the Rays last year (20 homers, four steals, .285 average in 413 PA).

Cronenworth can be a really nice batting average and runs contributor, but he'll bring you down in power. Swanson is the opposite, giving you some homers and RBI but not much else. All of these names are start-worthy, though.

 

Tier Five

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Brandon Crawford 18 203 531 66 17 68 5 .259
Gleyber Torres 19 148 579 74 21 69 12 .263
Chris Taylor 20 134 552 77 19 69 10 .254

The field really is not believing in the Brandon Crawford 2021 breakout. At the age of 35, that is perfectly understandable, but man he was good at the plate last year (11.5% Brl% and a 19% K%). I am high on him again for 2022. Torres is also a pretty interesting name after he swiped 14 bases last year and lowered the strikeout rate down to 20%. If he keeps those numbers up while improving in homers (and he has the raw power and home stadium to do it), he will be a steal this late in the draft.

 

Tier Six

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Luis Urias 21 151 547 68 19 65 5 .251
Brendan Rodgers 22 154 528 65 18 66 2 .278
Amed Rosario 23 163 580 72 13 61 15 .279
Eugenio Suarez 24 193 551 73 32 82 1 .229

I actually like all of these names for what they can do. Urias showed off a nice power/contact combination last year in his own right, Rodgers also made a big stride in strikeout rate and power numbers, and then Rosario and Suarez are strong late options for their respective categories (SB for Rosario, HR/RBI for Suarez).

I really like having one or two of these four names in my middle infield spot (or corner in the case of Urias and Suarez) or bench.

 

Tier Seven

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Josh Rojas 25 225 522 64 10 49 10 .248
Oneil Cruz 26 220 472 60 17 59 11 .261
Gavin Lux 27 226 422 57 12 50 5 .259

This is the "upside" tier, although chances are you get at least one big-time bust out of the group this year too (if not two or three!). Rojas has the speed to steal tons of bases, the raw power on Cruz is immense, and Lux is a former top prospect who should get a little bit more playing time this year.

I wouldn't be surprised if any of these three names really bust out this year, but they are all much too risky to depend heavily on.

 

Tier Eight

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Andres Gimenez 28 271 419 51 12 41 18 .245
Jonathan Villar 29 292 451 56 13 43 16 .247
Gio Urshela 30 261 485 54 15 59 1 .265
Nicky Lopez 31 241 540 63 3 42 15 .265

We don't have much going for us here. Lopez is the only one with a confident playing time projection, and you're not drafting Gimenez or Villar for anything but the steals. The upside play is Gimenez, and the safety is Lopez - although I really don't want Nicky Lopez.

 

My Shortstop Strategy

I want to start my team with Fernando Tatis or Trea Turner. The steals and batting average you get from them is just so valuable given how light the league is on those two categories right now. Unfortunately, they require a top-two pick to grab most of the time. If I don't get one of them, I'm looking to get Corey Seager and/or Willy Adames.

It's very important to note that this is the most steals-heavy position:

It's a good idea (although not a necessary one) to prioritize steals here. That means looking at a name like Story or Chisholm earlier on if missing on the top tier, and then grabbing maybe an Amed Rosario late for steals assurance.

All of this said, you will find plenty of start-worthy options at shortstop, so it's not exactly a position to get stressed out about early on.

Thanks for stopping by again, we'll be back soon with more tiered rankings!



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