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Hello everybody and welcome back once again from the Olympic Break! We hit the Go Bowling at The Glen from the Watkins Glen International course in Watkins Glen, New York this week and another edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Now, that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Chase Elliott Over 38.5 Points. This was again not an easy choice as Elliott does start 11th but this is a driver that has won seven road races in the last three years and Watkins Glen twice. He has led 73.33% of the laps on the track and uses spots to pass better than anyone on this course in particular. Yes, the NASCAR drivers did not come here in 2020 but little of that matters now. The only fly in the ointment may be drivers like Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. They could both have better cars than expected. However, that being said, Elliott could still lead a decent amount of laps on Sunday. Take the over here.
Kurt Busch Over 35.5 Points. The older Busch has managed to consolidate his position in "The Chase". He has finished in the top-eight in five of his previous seven races. Fifth place equals 36 points which would already be the over. Before New Hampshire, the No. 1 driver went from outside the top ten to win at Atlanta. Most often forget that Busch has a sixth and fourth in the last two road races and was contending all the while for the win in both. He just ran out of room as they say. So, take the over on Sunday as a Busch family special.
Denny Hamlin Under 35 Points. The idea is great given the build and the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have looked better and better over the last several weeks. On the last road course, Hamlin finished fifth on the Road America course in Wisconsin. The risk here is palpable but there are better road drivers who handle Watkins Glen a bit better. Hamlin's average finish is eighth on the Watkins Glen track. Also, he does not really lead a lot of laps here with this build. That is a big problem. He could finish sixth and push but lead no laps. The honest assessment of value leads us to believe a top ten is likely but sixth or worse has greater odds. We will take our risks with the under on this one.
Kyle Larson Over 37 Points. The good thing is the prop total is reasonable this week. Larson did win on the Sonoma road course and has top-three potential here at Watkins Glen. He can race well on this track with the way his road car is constructed. We saw that in Austin and again in Wisconsin as well. At Wisconsin, the No. 5 was the victim of some bad luck and a bump. He will have to drive a bit more carefully here and Larson is capable of that. The fact that he starts in fourth should help him lead a few extra laps potentially. This could be close but a fourth or better finish is likely for the Hendricks Motorsports Racing driver. Take that over one more time.
Kyle Busch Over 35.5 Points. Busch (the younger one) will not hit the pace car this week. Sometimes that just happens in NASCAR. The No. 18 was one of the fastest cars over the month before the break as Joe Gibbs Racing cars are dominating these summer tracks. Kyle Busch, aside from New Hampshire, has four consecutive podium finishes. The younger Busch is progressively finishing better and better on road courses. He was 10th at Austin, fifth at Sonoma, then third at Wisconsin. Honestly, the race at Road America was his to lose until late. He has the downforce and grip to get past the Hendricks cars on Sunday. The question is can he come back from 20th to do it? Take the over here as well.
Some other drivers to look at:
Ross Chastain (over 28 points) -- Could very well finish in the top ten again on a road course.
Daniel Suarez (over 21 points) -- Has top-15 potential here at Watkins Glen.
Kurt Busch (over 31 points) -- A top-ten finish is likely for the elder Busch and maybe more.
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