RADIO
An analyst shouldn't be proud to make mistakes, but he should at least take some pride in owning up to them. Last time I discussed shortstops, back in Week 3, I declared Xander Bogaerts and Ian Desmond overrated. I jumped on bad trends that, in small samples, painted ugly portraits of what are now among the game's best shortstops. Both players changed dramatically, elevating them to elite levels.
At least I wasn't so far off on the underrated guys. Marcus Semien hit his 20th home run yesterday, and Eugenio Suarez, despite a .224 batting average (no thanks to a .266 BABIP) is sitting pretty with 15 home runs and six stolen bases. Both have done just fine in standard mixed formats. While Suarez has outperformed his average draft position (ADP) by a couple dozen spots, Semien has outperformed his by almost 100, according to ESPN's Player Rater.
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Past editions: Week 1 (OF/SP) | Week 2 (OF/SP) | Week 3 (SS) | Week 4 (1B) | Week 6 (SP) | Week 7 (2B) | Week 8 (SP) | Week 9 (C) | Week 12 (OF) | Week 14 (SP) | All-Star Break (3B)
Last week's edition covered several third basemen who also qualify at shortstop. In an attempt to continually diversify my analytical portfolio, I will not ever discuss the same player twice within this series. Fortunately, there are always market discrepancies of which to take advantage. Here our your Week 15 overrated and underrated shortstops.
Overrated
Brandon Crawford, SF
71% owned, via FleaFlicker
This year's crop of shortstops is historically great, both in terms of power and overall production. Crawford's current peripherals might wind up being personal bests -- his hard-hit and pull rates are the highest of his career, his fly ball and line drive rates both second-highest. One could knock him for an uncharacteristically high pop-up rate, but that's a minor flaw in the grand scheme of things. The crux of the matter is Crawford's production simply doesn't impress in light of the talent that surrounds him.
Given his batted ball profile, there's a chance his power spikes in the second half. That would actually make him a nice buy-low option for the second half. But there's no need to buy low if you have a legitimate power-hitting shortstop on your squad. The only reason to target Crawford is if your middle infield situation is dire. At this point, though, Crawford is a fringe mixed-league starter at best. He's a nice source of counting stats thanks to a potent Giants lineup, but you can find comparable production with more power and/or speed elsewhere.
Addison Russell, CHC
68% owned, via FleaFlicker
It's really easy to get caught up in prospecting, especially considering many of the shiny pennies in the Cubs' coin purse have turned out to be golden dollars. Russell is not quite there, demonstrating below-average plate discipline and batted ball skills. Yes, he is on pace for roughly 20 home runs, which is kind of a big deal. But the batted ball profile, from his lowly hard-hit and fly ball rates to his generally weak contact skills, point to a slow second half in terms of power and, well, everything.
According to FleaFlicker, Russell is #12 shortstop in terms of ownership yet falls outside the top-20 in terms of overall performance (and was recently passed by teammate Javier Baez, who has recorded more than 100 fewer plate appearances than Russell this season). It's incredible that Russell is only 22 years old, but he simply hasn't hit his stride as a Major Leaguer yet. If you play in a dynasty league, I understand your rationale for stashing him. But know that he's a very poor shortstop option at this point in redraft leagues, and I wouldn't really devote too many resources to him in short-term keeper leagues as well. If this were five years ago, Russell would be a pretty enticing player, just as Crawford would be. But the shortstop landscape has changed, folks. This new breed of young shortstop has changed the game.
Underrated
Jose Reyes, NYM
24% owned, via FleaFlicker
It's OK to not want to touch Reyes after his offseason drama and subsequent suspension heading into this season. It's OK to fundamentally disapprove of him as a person. Fact of the matter is Reyes' off-field antics, however despicable as they may be, should really have no bearing on his on-field talents. With that said, Reyes looks like vintage Reyes: solid contact skills, a modest walk rate, and a bevy of stolen bases.
Don't be fooled by the power from these early goings; Reyes has barely threatened double-digit power the last half-decade, so there's no reason to believe he's a threat to hit 15 home runs in the second half, let alone 10 or maybe even five. You really focus on Reyes for the speed, for which he could legitimately deliver another 12 to 15 stolen bases through the rest of the season. You can't say that about too many other players in the league, and while the rest of his game is pretty boring, he'll at least help you in batting average, too.
Javier Baez, CHC
16% owned, via FleaFlicker
The aforementioned Baez has, more or less, served as an everyday player for the last couple of months. The same caveats still apply for him: he's a whiff-tastic hitter who will hurt your batting average but has the potential to hit for massive power. So far, fantasy owners (among the very few who own him) have experienced the good Baez and not the bad.
There are signs of both to come -- his 14.3% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) suggests a pending rise in his strikeout rate. Between that and his elevated pull rate (Pull%), owners can expect a decrease in batting average fueled by negative trends in K% and BABIP. Still, the 25-homer power is nice, and the 15 stolen bases with which he may finish the season are a nice touch as well. The biggest knock against him right now is his perceived lack of guaranteed playing time, but frankly, Baez has been more impressive recently than Soler ever has (at least since his massive small-sample debut in 2014).
Even when Jorge Soler and Dexter Fowler eventually return, Baez should stick in a super-utility role and could see 300 plate appearances from here on out. That should be enough to get him to the 20-homer mark. While I've played down power, given its abundance at the shortstop position in 2016, that kind of production on the cheap helps win championships in deeper mixed or NL-only formats. If you wrote off Baez too soon, now's the time to reconsider.
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