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Every year, fantasy owners look to make bold gambles in the draft in hopes of looking back on a championship squad of unlikely heroes. This is especially prevalent of the wide receiver position. Rather than worrying about building a consistent roster of proven producers, the risk takers of the world prefer to search for imaginary upside. Of course, this is the nature of the draft. At certain points, one must take gambles to avoid mediocrity.
This year, the ADP of wide receivers actually seems pretty sound to me. There are no glaring errors. Nobody is being drafted at insanely inappropriate times, as it has appeared in years past. Still, many receivers are ranked based on "high-ceiling" capabilities, even though there are clear indicators of decline or disappointment. Let's take a look at some overvalued wide outs who are being drafted too early in 2015.
Editor's note: Be sure to check out our Who To Draft Tool, a free player comparison tool which can help you make decisions on who to draft. Need to choose between a few players? Not sure who to pick next? Compare any two NFL players and see which is recommended for your drafts.
Overvalued NFL Wide Receivers & ADPs to Avoid
Emmanuel Sanders - WR, Denver Broncos
Sanders was a monster in Denver's high-flying offense in 2014, racking up 1,404 yards (almost double any other prior season) and nine touchdowns. In standard scoring leagues, Sanders ranked seventh among all receivers last year. This year, his ADP is hovering around 31, 12th chosen among wide outs. Following that logic, he should be considered undervalued, right?
Well it's no secret that Peyton Manning is the reason behind receivers' success in Denver. Manning ranked second in passing TDs (39) and fourth in yards (4,727). Just another day in the office for Peyton. Thing is, there have been some changes in Denver. New head coach Gary Kubiak is a big fan of running the ball, which will likely take away a big chunk of the luster from the Broncos passing game. Also, Kubiak brought his boy Owen Daniels with him, who may take some targets from Sanders. With a run-first approach lead by a group of young running backs, coupled with the plethora of receiving options in Denver, it's difficult to see Sanders reaching anything close to his 2014 numbers this season.
DeSean Jackson - WR, Washington Redskins
Jackson is a much better player than his 52 ADP, or 21st among receivers. He's coming off of back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons and his 20.9 YPC was the most among all receivers last year with over 50 targets. There's no reason to believe Jackson will cease to be an elite deep threat in the NFL.
Rather, it is the offense around him that will hinder Jackson in 2015. The offensive unit in Washington is an absolute disaster. The line can hardly protect the quarterback long enough for him to turn his head around to look at the receivers. Robert Griffin III is out and Kirk Cousins is in. This is a huge hit to Jackson's value, as Cousins sports a much weaker arm than RGIII. Say goodbye to the deep ball. We all know that Jackson can be an emotional player. I foresee some type of emotional breakdown, paired with this nagging shoulder ailment, limiting Jackson to a subpar campaign in 2015.
Mike Wallace - WR, Minnesota Vikings
I'm not buying Mike Wallace in Minnesota. Well, either are most fantasy owners, as his 80 ADP (29th among wide receivers) is the lowest since his years in Pittsburgh. Wallace hasn't put up a 1,000 yard season since 2011 and his two years spent with Ryan Tannehill in Miami were a failure. Although he's found his way to Minnesota, he's still on the same huge contract.
There's just too much not to like here. Chiefly, with Adrian Peterson back in town, the Vikings are going to focus on the run game above all. During his time in Miami, Wallace never quite established chemistry with Tannehill. In the small sample size of the preseason, Wallace has gone without a reception in two games, including a dropped pass this past week. Don't get me wrong - Wallace is a true burner. But he's got a lot to prove before he's worth even WR3 value. His value is even lower in PPR leagues.
Sammy Watkins - WR, Buffalo Bills
This one is pretty simple. Buffalo sold the farm to acquire Watkins with the fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft. Unfortunately, it did not quite pay off. Watkins was fifth among all rookie wide outs in standard fantasy scoring, 25th of all receivers in 2014. Although Kyle Orton was not really an impressive quarterback, he was more proven and reliable than the trio of candidates currently on the Bills roster. Now that Tyrod Taylor, a man who has never started an NFL game, has been named the starter, Watkins' value has dipped even further.
So, why is Watkins drafted 22nd among wide receivers in 2015 drafts? There are very few reasons to believe he should improve upon his rookie numbers, other than simply a year of experience under his belt. He's also deal with a glute impingement that could make his week 1 status questionable. Don't trust any component of the passing game in Buffalo. The only way the passing game will get going is if all the running backs on the roster become inured. Oh wait.
Nelson Agholor - WR, Philadelphia Eagles
This one is not so simple. The 20th overall draft pick in the 2015 draft has solidified himself as the number two receiver behind Jordan Matthews and is being drafted, on average, as the 30th fantasy receiver. The only rookie ahead of him is young phenom Amari Cooper. Listen, there's a ton to like about Agholor. He showed off some real talent at USC and has been a dynamo in training camp so far. He's also played more snaps during the preseason than any other Eagles receiver. Most importantly, he'll be playing in Chip Kelly's high-volume offense and will likely have a chance for a bunch of targets.
But, there's just too much up in the air here. If Agholor doesn't produce early and often, the Eagles have about 20 other viable receiving options to resort to. Riley Cooper and Miles Austin will be chasing the rookie's heels all year and running backs DeMarco Murray, Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews will all be targeted in the passing game as well. Plus, do we really trust Sam Bradford to be capable of establishing chemistry with a rookie amidst all these threats, or even run a capable offense at all? Too many question marks surrounding this youngster to draft him in the top-30. Devin Funchess would be a much more reliable rookie option for a cheaper price.
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