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With a shortened April now in the rearview mirror, let's move into May with a fresh stroll through my weekly-updated top 101 starting pitcher rankings - looking at rest-of-season values. RotoBallers can once again peruse my notes regarding key movers and then scroll through the top-101 in a table with tiers, ranks, earned value via Fangraphs, and even more notes! Let's hit another edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!
This google sheet accompanies the table below and adds relevant 5x5 stats, K%, BB%, BABIP, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ERA-FIP, and CSW% from 2022. Do note that I leave off injured players, but for now, I will include them at the bottom with a rank of where they'd appear when healthy. I highly encourage you to click the link. CLICK IT!
As is tradition, these fantasy baseball starting pitcher ranking are geared towards traditional 5x5 leagues and focus on healthy players. If 25% of the board is on the IL, then that doesn't help anyone. I threw the injured players at the bottom with a rank that would apply were they healthy. And now we head into this week's top-101 SP!
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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis
Another week into the season means slightly more stabilization, but there are still plenty of new velocities, repertoires, and batted-ball data nuisances to chew on.
Most of the studs are performing well, likely aided by the wet-sock ball. I’ve experimented in a few roto leagues with aggressive streaming and trying to go way over the innings pace by stacking these early, pre-summer games before the potential flip. Once the dew point and humidity pendulums swing with the summer, then we could see a more familiar, bouncier ball.
(Or you can don the tinfoil hat with me and wonder whether Mister Manfred is going to suddenly tag in a different ball if the suppressed offense continues to have people rumbling).
-Kevin Gausman continues to mystify batters in 2022, logging an absurd 0.46 FIP and 1.53 xFIP through his first five starts. He’s making history with a 41/0 K/BB ratio through 31 ⅔ IP and hasn’t gotten cheap opponents either. So far, Gaus has carved up the Rangers, the Yankees, the Red Sox (twice), and now the Astros. Each outing has come with a BABIP north of .300 to fuel a .383 BABIP on the young season, which sounds crazy but is sensible with someone attacking the zone so relentlessly that he’s issued zero walks. I still have some concerns that he could lose the feel of his splitter like the second half of 2021, or that the AL East will perk up come summertime, but the Cy Young levels of dominance cannot be ignored.
-Shane McClanahan is another ALE stud worthy of enhanced praises. I mean, just look at that gargantuan strikeout rate that’s flirting with 40%. And they’re saying Shane Baz is meant to be the better young arm in Tampa?! Oh, dear. Shane-o-Mac may give up a few dingers (26.7% HR/FB rate early is lofty, that was 14.3% last year) but his 1.55 xFIP points to what could be should things stabilize. Now, if a few home runs are the cost of doing business for the 14.0 K/9, then we can live with that too. Let’s see how his command holds up throughout his first full season, but his ceiling is presenting itself.
-Robbie Ray has stumbled out of the gates in 2022, with a 20.8% strikeout rate that would mark a career-worst for the southpaw. It looks even worse when you frame it as a 7.71 K/9, especially given he’s still got a walk rate around 10%. The good news is that he’s only yielded more than three earned runs in one of five starts so you aren’t getting drenched in lava by starting him. More actionable good news is that his latest start on April 30 saw his average four-seam velocity creep up to 93.6 mph after his first four games were in the 91.5-92.5 range. That increase brought a season-high eight strikeouts along with it, so let’s hope we’re witnessing the start of a turnaround. That said, he still falls on the ranks given how well others are performing.
*The same goes for Jose Berrios, who is doing okay with four earned in his last three starts (only 15 K in 18 ⅔ IP).
-Charlie Morton continues his quest for command after issuing four walks with just one strikeout in a short, 2 ⅓ IP outing against the Cubs on April 27. It’s hard to watch but we’ll take solace in his velocity being there and his history of slow Aprils. Everyone is pointing to last year’s 5.00-plus ERA in the early going, which is fine, but he also didn’t have a regular offseason while rehabbing the broken leg. Well, no one had a regular offseason thanks to greedy MLB owners. You get it.
-Alex Cobb had a very strange return from the injured list on Sunday. He’d throw 22-of-40 pitches for strikes, but all three of his walks came after a poor error by Jason Vosler at third base turned a potential double-play into chaos. He also balked in a run towards the end. If he winds up heading right back to the IL, then so be it, but I wager he’ll be fine to deploy in all formats next time around. This was just some rusty command mixed with rotten luck. If anyone panic drops him in your league, then you better pounce.
-Tylor Megill, Kyle Wright, Jesus Luzardo, and Nestor Cortes continue their rise through the ranks. CyLord MeGoat sparked a combined no-hitter, Wright turned in yet another QS gem with eight whiffs and only one earned run, Luzardo notched wins over Atlanta and Seattle with back-to-back one-run outings last week, and Cortes now has a 28/3 K/BB in 20 ⅔ IP. Nasty Nestor’s next game comes against the hard-hitting Blue Jays in Toronto, which will be quite the game!
-Eduardo Rodriguez looks lost, but not as lost as Matt Brash or Yusei Kikuchi at least. The three of them are hurting fantasy teams, with ERod entering bench territory. I’m still stashing Brash in most leagues because of his incredible Stuff scores but George Kirby is knocking on the door. Kikuchi is a drop for me, as there’s little room for error in the AL East and the upside isn’t really worth the roster slot.
-Drew Rasmussen and Eric Lauer are making noise on the lower half of the table. Rasmussen finally worked deeper into a start and struck out nine Mariners over six innings. He hit 84 pitches and should get a start against Oakland next in a bid to maintain momentum. And then Lauer has thrown three straight quality starts, but his last two have come with 13 and 11 strikeouts, respectively. He’ll put his new approach to the test against the Braves in Atlanta on May 6, but he passed his April audition with flying colors.
Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball
These are rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings for starting pitchers.
| (+/-) | Tier | Player | Rank | EV | $ | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 0 | 1 | Corbin Burnes | 1 | $4.0 | 44.0 | 43.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Run support rudeness is outside of his control |
| 0 | 1 | Max Scherzer | 2 | $6.9 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ | That arm sure looks lively to me |
| 0 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 3 | $2.7 | 42.0 | 42.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Able to attack edges more with Trevino it seems |
| 0 | 1 | Brandon Woodruff | 4 | $4.1 | 39.0 | 40.0 | -1.0 ▼ | I know, it's not ideal but 2.62 FIP, 3.87 SIERA |
| 0 | 2 | Walker Buehler | 5 | $3.5 | 38.5 | 37.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Getting the strikeouts that we wanted from the start |
| 1 | 2 | Julio Urias | 6 | $1.5 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Know he's deceptive but 4.30+ FIP/xFIP/SIERA, .170 BABIP |
| 1 | 2 | Freddy Peralta | 7 | $3.6 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Nice get-right start v. PIT, draws CIN next too |
| 1 | 2 | Lucas Giolito | 8 | $2.5 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Looks 100%, hope CHW can supply some wins soon |
| 1 | 2 | Shane Bieber | 9 | $4.6 | 30.0 | 29.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Doing well but lacking that true upside w/o top velo |
| 2 | 2 | Joe Musgrove | 10 | $6.0 | 29.5 | 27.0 | 2.5 ▲ | Incredible control, good results from skill not luck |
| 2 | 2 | Carlos Rodon | 11 | $9.5 | 29.5 | 25.5 | 4.0 ▲ | Just stay healthy, just stay healthy, just stay healthy |
| 9 | 2 | Kevin Gausman | 12 | $11.5 | 28.0 | 19.0 | 9.0 ▲ | Beasting in return to ALE, can this hold in summer? |
| -7 | 3 | Logan Webb | 13 | $4.9 | 27.5 | 34.5 | -7.0 ▼ | Grounders can mean horrid BABIP luck, control still ++ |
| -3 | 3 | Sandy Alcantara | 14 | $3.5 | 25.5 | 28.0 | -2.5 ▼ | Good, but not the great we saw late '21 w/ big Ks |
| 1 | 3 | Dylan Cease | 15 | $5.4 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 4 | 3 | Clayton Kershaw | 16 | $6.9 | 23.0 | 19.5 | 3.5 ▲ | Hat tip to the future HoF, current Dodgers K leader |
| 2 | 3 | Justin Verlander | 17 | $4.5 | 22.0 | 20.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Another all-time great looking strong |
| 4 | 3 | Shane McClanahan | 18 | $4.8 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 3 | Max Fried | 19 | $6.3 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Minuscule BB% helping him navigate any traffic woes |
| -3 | 3 | Alek Manoah | 20 | $4.0 | 21.0 | 22.0 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| -6 | 3 | Zack Wheeler | 21 | $1.8 | 21.5 | 24.0 | -2.5 ▼ | |
| 6 | 3 | Nathan Eovaldi | 22 | $1.5 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 5.0 ▲ | |
| -9 | 4 | Robbie Ray | 23 | $2.1 | 18.5 | 24.5 | -6.0 ▼ | If we can't rely on big Ks w/ more fire then upside is poof |
| -1 | 4 | Yu Darvish | 24 | $2.5 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 4 | Frankie Montas | 25 | $3.2 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 4 | Aaron Nola | 26 | $2.3 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 2 | 4 | Chris Bassitt | 27 | $3.8 | 16.0 | 13.5 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| 2 | 4 | Shohei Ohtani | 28 | $5.4 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Right groin tightness, could be short-term trouble |
| 3 | 4 | Pablo Lopez | 29 | $7.5 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 4 | 4 | Logan Gilbert | 30 | $5.7 | 13.5 | 11.0 | 2.5 ▲ | |
| -5 | 5 | Jose Berrios | 31 | $0.0 | 13.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 ▼ | |
| -1 | 5 | Sean Manaea | 32 | $3.2 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 5 | Michael Kopech | 33 | $4.2 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -10 | 5 | Charlie Morton | 34 | -$1.8 | 13.0 | 17.0 | -4.0 ▼ | |
| 0 | 5 | Trevor Rogers | 35 | $2.7 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 6 | 5 | Kyle Wright | 36 | $8.4 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 ▲ | Early 2022 breakout continues dominating |
| 3 | 6 | Tylor Megill | 37 | $5.5 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 2.5 ▲ | Five innings of no-hit ball will help anyone's stock |
| 0 | 6 | Zac Gallen | 38 | $4.0 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| -2 | 6 | Framber Valdez | 39 | $2.5 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 3 | 6 | Jesus Luzardo | 40 | $4.9 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 ▲ | Strong two-step last week, notching 2 Ws w/ 1 ER in each |
| 3 | 6 | Nestor Cortes | 41 | $6.9 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 ▲ | Nasty, nasty, nasty |
| -1 | 6 | Jordan Montgomery | 42 | $2.6 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 3 | 6 | Joe Ryan | 43 | $4.5 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 ▲ | Challenges with deceptive fastball, .163 BABIP! |
| -5 | 7 | Luis Garcia | 44 | $0.3 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 7 | Carlos Carrasco | 45 | $3.5 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -10 | 7 | Alex Cobb | 46 | $3.6 | 7.0 | 9.5 | -2.5 ▼ | |
| N/A | 7 | Garrett Whitlock | 47 | $4.5 | 7.0 | N/A | N/A | Getting a chance in rotation, though bullpen needs him |
| 1 | 7 | Patrick Sandoval | 48 | $5.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -1 | 7 | Tyler Mahle | 49 | $6.2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 0 | 7 | Ian Anderson | 50 | -$0.6 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 7 | Tanner Houck | 51 | $2.9 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 7 | Alex Wood | 52 | $0.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 7 | Luis Severino | 53 | $2.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| N/A | 7 | MacKenzie Gore | 54 | $3.3 | 5.5 | N/A | N/A | Snell & Clevinger nearly ready, will SD wiggle Gore in? |
| -1 | 7 | Noah Syndergaard | 55 | $3.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 7 | Tarik Skubal | 56 | $7.3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 ▲ | New changeup grip yielding healthy results |
| -2.0 | 8 | Adam Wainwright | 57 | $2.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 3 | 8 | Marcus Stroman | 58 | -$0.1 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| -12 | 8 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 59 | $1.3 | 4.5 | 6.5 | -2.0 ▼ | Spacious Comerica not working out so far |
| -1 | 8 | Triston McKenzie | 60 | $2.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 4 | 8 | Merrill Kelly | 61 | $7.2 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Toyed w/ STL over 7 scoreless, gets road Rockies next |
| -4 | 8 | Jose Urquidy | 62 | $0.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -3 | 9 | Hunter Greene | 63 | -$1.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -2 | 9 | Jameson Taillon | 64 | $2.4 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 9 | Tony Gonsolin | 65 | $2.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 14 | 9 | Drew Rasmussen | 66 | $2.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 9 | 9 | Eric Lauer | 67 | $5.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 ▲ | B2B games w/ 11+ Ks is special, gets ATL next |
| -4 | 9 | Ranger Suarez | 68 | $0.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 9 | Reid Detmers | 69 | $0.6 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 7 | 9 | Cristian Javier | 70 | $1.7 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Notched W in first start of '22, reached 84 pitches |
| 0 | 10 | Cal Quantrill | 71 | $1.4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 0 | 10 | Kyle Gibson | 72 | $2.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 1 | 10 | Josiah Gray | 73 | $1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 ▲ | If command is there then movement can dominate |
| -5 | 10 | German Marquez | 74 | $0.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -7 | 10 | Kyle Hendricks | 75 | $0.3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -3 | 10 | Steven Matz | 76 | $4.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 6 | 10 | Michael Lorenzen | 77 | $0.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Took shutout into 9th v. CWS, deep arsenal working well |
| -22 | 10 | Matt Brash | 78 | -$1.8 | 2.5 | 4.5 | -2.0 ▼ | |
| 9 | 10 | Paul Blackburn | 79 | $6.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| -1 | 10 | Zach Eflin | 80 | $4.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 10 | Taijuan Walker | 81 | $1.3 | 2.0 | N/A | N/A | 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 K in return; little rust even if low whiffs |
| 0 | 11 | Mitch Keller | 82 | $0.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -16 | 11 | Yusei Kikuchi | 83 | -$2.3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 ▼ | Pete Walker magic hasn't kicked in yet, wait and see |
| -6 | 11 | Aaron Civale | 84 | -$0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| -4 | 11 | Marco Gonzales | 85 | -$1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 5 | 11 | Dylan Bundy | 86 | $4.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -3 | 11 | Zach Plesac | 87 | $0.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -2 | 11 | Glenn Otto | 88 | $1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -2 | 11 | Aaron Ashby | 89 | $0.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Spot starts are worthwhile, but the walks need to chill |
| N/A | 11 | Bruce Zimmermann | 90 | $5.0 | 1.5 | N/A | N/A | |
| -6 | 11 | Nick Martinez | 91 | -$3.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| -3 | 12 | Austin Gomber | 92 | $2.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 12 | Michael Pineda | 93 | -$1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 12 | Chris Flexen | 94 | $2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 12 | Zack Greinke | 95 | $2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| -1 | 12 | Miles Mikolas | 96 | $5.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 12 | Tyler Anderson | 97 | $2.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 12 | Brad Keller | 98 | $3.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 1 | 12 | Corey Kluber | 99 | $2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| N/A | 12 | Dakota Hudson | 100 | $0.0 | 1.0 | N/A | N/A | |
| 0 | 12 | Michael Wacha | 101 | $2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| INJ | Jacob deGrom | 1 | N/A | MRI showed "considerable healing", not throwing yet | ||||
| INJ | Chris Sale | 15 | N/A | Threw 7-pitch bullpen, aiming for early June | ||||
| INJ | Lance Lynn | 25 | N/A | Throwing bullpen sessions, hope for late May | ||||
| INJ | Jack Flaherty | 30 | N/A | Throwing on flat ground from 240 feet, mound to come | ||||
| INJ | Luis Castillo | 35 | N/A | Threw 48 pitches in latest rehab start, return soon | ||||
| INJ | Sonny Gray | 35 | -$0.6 | May return later this week, rehab start went well | ||||
| INJ | Lance McCullers Jr. | 35 | N/A | I'm not expecting much in 2022 from LMC | ||||
| INJ | Blake Snell | 40 | $0.0 | Threw 4 scoreless IP in High-A rehab start | ||||
| INJ | Shane Baz | 50 | N/A | He'll need to ramp up at AAA, timeline still unclear | ||||
| INJ | Andrew Heaney | 50 | $3.8 | Still not throwing, LAD will be conservative | ||||
| INJ | Mike Clevinger | 55 | N/A | Expected back for mid-week start | ||||
| INJ | Stephen Strasburg | 60 | N/A | Facing live hitters, late May could be in the cards | ||||
| INJ | Nick Lodolo | 60 | $0.7 | Lower back strain, hoping it doesn't require long | ||||
| INJ | Jon Gray | 65 | -$0.4 | Knee sprain, hoping to be minor and back shortly | ||||
| INJ | Anthony DeSclafani | 65 | $0.9 | Ankle inflammation, same inj. as '21, severity TBD | ||||
| INJ | Hyun Jin Ryu | 75 | -$0.8 | Threw three-inning live BP session on April 30 | ||||
| INJ | Bailey Ober | 75 | $2.4 | Right groin tightness, hoping to miss only 1-2 starts | ||||
| INJ | Luis Patino | 80 | $0.1 | Oblique injuries suck; 60-day IL means at least June | ||||
| INJ | Casey Mize | 80 | $0.80 | Began throwing program last week |
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