RADIO
The NFL draft marks a day where our football starved minds are given a reprieve from the woefully long off-season. That’s why the NFL draft is one of the premier trading weeks in dynasty fantasy football. So the question is are you buying or selling? In this article we’re going to break down the pro's and con's of moving draft picks before the NFL draft. As well as general evaluation of the draft class from a fantasy perspective.
When you think about the impact rookies have been making in the NFL the past couple seasons, it's easy to understand why a fantasy owner would get overwhelmed with excitement at the thought of corralling the top prospect. With the past three dynasty rookie drafts churning out the likes of Todd Gurley, Ezekial Elliot and Leonard Fournette a year ago. This year's consensus number 1 running back Saquan Barkley has been praised as being better then all three of them. So that brings up the question what is the 1.01 pick worth this year?
When we look at this draft class what stands out the most is the depth at the running back position, again.
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Top Five Running Backs in the 2018 NFL Draft
1. Saquan Barkley (most likely will be 1.01)
2. Derrius Guice
3. Sony Michel
4. Nick Chubb
5. Rashad Penny
So if your looking at that list and thinking to your self what do I have to give up to get Barkley? A lot! Most GMs that have 1.01 are buying what the media is selling. That Saquan already has a bust in Canton being polished and is the best running back prospect in the past decade. The amount you have to give up would of course be dictated by your position in the 1st round. That being said without surrendering a stud player like David Johnson the amount of future draft picks you would have to surrender is a hefty price to pay. It's really comes down to the owner and his play style. A owner who takes risks in hopes of massive rewards may trade a stud player for 1.01 so if your selling make sure the player you get in return worth your pick.
Top Five Wide Receivers in the 2018 NFL Draft
Before I get to the Pro and Cons segment I'd like to address the rookie wide receiver's. This group is getting the rep of being a soft class but I think their are some solid starters here. It comes down to scheme fit so keep a eye if one of these receivers lands on a pass happy offense. You may have a undervalued diamond in the rough.
1. Calvin Ridley
2. D.J Moore
3. Courtland Sutton
4. Christian Kirk
5. James Washington
Let me be clear I don't recommend trading up for any of these guys. For the most part I think guys like Moore and Kirk will slide and could return great value in the draft. If your sitting in the lottery picks and you don't need a running back I highly suggest selling. While Ridley in the right system could flourish as a solid option in fantasy, the return for a lottery pick in a draft so loaded with running backs would likely be greater then the value of Ridley. If you need a Wide receiver trade your pick to a team that has a wide receiver you like perhaps Davante Adams or Keenan Allen? If they have depth at that position and they are in the market for one of the top running backs you've got a shot of pulling that deal off.
Pros and Cons to Trading a Lottery Pick
I'll go through the pro and cons of the first fours pick as if I own them and break downs options for the owners in this position.
1.01. If I own 1.01 I'm not moving from it unless I'm paid a king's ransom. As I mentioned before Saquan Barkley is viewed as better then Gurley, Zeke, Fournette so think about what kind of deal it would take for those guys to be moved and we're talking more then that. If I got a 1st round pick and a player like AJ Green I'm tempted anything shy of that it's not that hard of a decision. This will change from team to team but I think if you have 1.01 you take Barkley.
Pros:
- Could trade for more developed star players.
- Trade value is through the roof.
- Could trade for more picks in this year and next year's draft.
Cons:
- Potentially miss out on a superstar fantasy player.
Pretty cut and dry if you have 1.01 whether you buy him or sell him your teams getting better.
1.02. Here's where things get interesting we won't know for sure until after the draft which RB is in the best position to succeed. So far know we can call it dealers choice between Guice and Micheal.
Pros:
- Both are viewed as immediate starting running backs at the next level. So trade value will be solid
- Likely could get a player of similar or more value in trade if one of them goes to a team with no running back.
- Neither of them carry the same clear cut 3 down workhorse back tag that Barkley has.
Cons:
- Both have serious upside. Guice has double digits touchdown potential and Michael is being compared to last season fantasy football steal of the year Alvin Kamara.
Owners likely aren't willing to overpay for these picks
1.03. Positional need takes precedence here. If you need a running back and your comfortable with the combo of Guice or Michael then stay put and take them the value matches the player. If you need a wide receiver though and your tempted to pluck Ridley or one of the other receivers with this pick I would advise against it. I'm not trading for this pick for a wideout. Only for one of the running backs I mentioned.
Pros:
- Likely can get a wide receiver worthy of the value of 1.03 in a trade.
- Teams desperate for a running back may want to assure they get one of the big 3. So you may be able to set your price
Cons:
- Might miss on a very talented running back.
1.04. Not a bad spot to be at all. To pick at 1.04 means your getting the 4th best running back or the best wide receiver. I doubt the interest will be high on buying this pick but you never know.
Pros:
- Likely the safer option to trade
- Teams hard up for a wide receiver may be willing to over pay
Cons:
- Lose the ability to take receiver of your choice. Or leftover running back.
So what this all mean? It means the answer to the question "should I make a trade before the draft" is YES! Whether your buying or selling people will be active in your league. So send out some feelers and see how people in your league are valuing these top picks. Be warned it's a seller's market but buying before the draft will be cheaper then trying to get the pick afterwards. Hope this article made someones team better somewhere happy trading and may your trades never be vetoed.
