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We now move on to starting pitcher in our mixed-league rankings analysis series. If you missed them, here is our review of Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop, Outfield, and of course, Starting Pitcher Part One.
RotoBaller's rankers, JB Branson, Pierre Camus, Nick Mariano, and Ariel Cohen have updated our 2021 Mixed League rankings once more based on early spring training action.
You can also find our other draft rankings for all sorts of league formats, continually updated throughout the preseason, right here in our main fantasy baseball Rankings Wizard tool. Also, make use of all our premium resources with our MLB Draft Kit.
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2021 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings
In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season, and Ariel Cohen was the top ranker in 2019. In addition, ATC Projections by Ariel Cohen were the #1 most accurate projections system in 2019. Be sure to follow their updated rankings and projections all season long!
Tier Six
Tier six is the gambler's tier, you feelin' lucky? This range feature's some of the biggest names of yesteryear who could be huge values if they can return to their former selves after missing all or most of last season. Corey Kluber, David Price, Chris Sale, and Eduardo Rodriguez can all blow their ADP out of the water if they pitch like they have prior to 2020, but also are some of the riskiest names on draft day. The one I'm most willing to bet on is Rodriguez who has looked great thus far in Spring Training. He missed the 2020 season due to complications with COVID, but says he feels healthy and finished sixth in Cy Young voting last time we saw him in 2019.
Fellow Red Sox starter Chris Sale, on the other hand, is being drafted this high for name recognition. Sure, he has the highest ceiling of the group, but he has reportedly had some setbacks in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. He's throwing off of flat ground now and is on track for a midseason return. However, with four years left on Sale's $145 million contract extension, the Red Sox will prioritize Sale's long-term health rather than rushing him this season, especially if they fall behind early competing in a tough AL East. This draft price is too rich for my risk-appetite.
The other pair of LA pitchers in this tier also feel a bit risky. Dustin May is very talented, but his role in a deep Dodgers rotation leaves a lot to be desired fantasy-wise. He hasn't shown strikeout ability in the Majors with under a strikeout-per-inning in his two MLB stints. I'd rather have his teammate Tony Gonsolin in the next tier down.
Then there's two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. His ceiling as a top-40 pitcher and a top-40 hitter is obviously unmatched in fantasy baseball (check your league settings for two-way player rules!) but that upside also carries unprecedented risk. He's thrown just 53 1/3 MLB innings in his career and only 1 2/3 have come since returning from Tommy John surgery last year. He has lit up the radar gun in Spring Training, however, and will out-perform this tier if he is healthy enough to reach even 120 innings.
Shohei Ohtani may be the Filthiest Pitcher in Baseball.
Don't @ me.
Exhibit A. This 3 pitch sequence. pic.twitter.com/YOWWxrjpHH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 13, 2021
Tier Six also offers a ton of upside. Zach Eflin is a pitcher I'm targeting early and often this season after a breakout in 2020. Sure, it was a small sample, but Eflin made changes to his repertoire that should help his success stick. Last season, Eflin morphed from a four-seam/cutter/slider pitcher into one who relies on a sinker/curveball combo. This led to a 10 percent spike in strikeout rate and a three percent bump in ground ball rate. Eflin is a former first-round pick entering his age-27 season. A breakout feels eminent.
Another player who has been the apple-of-my-eye this draft season is Tyler Mahle. Like Eflin, Mahle made tangible changes in 2020 that led to a career-year. Some may doubt his 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 29.9 percent strikeout rate breakout last season, but those people will not have the pleasure of rostering my favorite darkhorse Cy Young candidate.
The last tier-six pitcher of note is 29-year-old Marco Gonzales. The left-hander gets a bump in leagues that replace wins with quality starts. He's upped his quality-start percentage three-straight seasons and had seven in 11 starts last season. He's quietly emerged as the ace of the Mariners by posting an ERA of four or under in three straight seasons.
Tier Seven
The highlight of this tier is Cleveland starter Aaron Civale who outperformed his underwhelming stat line last season. The 25-year old allowed eight runs in four innings in his last start of the regular season. That one clunker jacked his ERA up 0.75 runs; you have to love small sample sizes. Prior to that outing, he made 11 starts and lasted at least six innings in all of them. He was dominant in 2019 as a minor leaguer and he seems to be finding his footing in the Majors. Given the Indians' recent history of developing pitching talent, I'm betting on Civale to keep improving.
At this point in the draft, it's important to keep roster construction in mind. Do you have enough strikeouts? How are your ratios looking? Knowing how to build a well-rounded pitching staff is important when considering a hurler like Dallas Keuchel or Mike Soroka - aka Dallas Keuchel Lite. Both the veteran Keuchel and the youngster Soroka rely heavily on elite ground ball rates to pitch deep into games. They won't rack up K's, but they can provide stable ratios and a healthy win total backed by strong offenses.
In tier six, we talked about pitchers that missed all or most of 2020. The best 2020 absentee to make his grand return may very well be Marcus Stroman. The last time we saw him pitch in 2019, he tossed 184 1/3 innings at a 3.22 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He was among the league leaders in avoiding hard contact and had a strong 3.75 xERA. He hasn't pitched since suffering a torn left calf muscle but he has been vocal about feeling healthy and has also talked about incorporating a new slider he developed after opting out of last season.
Speaking of pitchers who can be exciting with a new pitch, Elieser Hernandez has talked about reincorporating a changeup to his repertoire. The 25-year-old Marlin flashed a 32.1 percent strikeout rate last year in just 25 1/3 innings. He won't pitch a ton of innings, but he can provide strong ratios and a healthy amount of strikeouts when he is on the bump.
Tier Eight
The deeper we dive into these rankings, the more opinions will differ within the tiers. Brady Singer is a pitcher I'd take over several starters in tier seven. Singer was a first-round pick out of the University of Florida where he was the ace of their 2018 National Championship team and named the SEC Pitcher of the Year. He only pitched in two minor league seasons - High-A and Double-A - but had an xFIP under 3.60 in both of them. He would've started last season at Triple-A, but thanks to the pandemic, he had to take a few lumps in the Majors. Despite some growing pains, Singer finished with a respectable 4.05 ERA supported by a 4.06 xFIP. He'll turn 25 this year so expect more improvement from a future-ace.
Nate Pearson, Michael Kopech, and Noah Syndergaard are three of the hardest throwers in the game. That may or may not be related to each of them dealing with injury situations, but their upside is high when they are on the mound. Kopech will start the season in the bullpen to manage his innings but will wind up in the rotation. Pearson is already dealing with a groin injury and seems to be ticketed for the bullpen - if not the IL - to start the season. Then there's Syndergaard, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and is aiming for, "a midseason return." While that quote is probably intentionally vague, this is a good spot for Thor. I'd much rather take a shot on Syndergaard here than Sale in tier six.
Tier Nine
Tier nine is prospect territory. The veteran names here like Zach Davies and Mike Foltynewicz will be waiver wire fodder by June. My favorite name to target is Deivi Garcia who is the number three prospect in the Yankees farm system. He got a taste of the Majors last season and showed more promise than his 4.98 ERA would indicate. He had a sub-five percent walk rate and boasted two pitches that posted a negative run value. He may not start the season in the rotation, but the cream rises to the top and there's a roughly zero percent chance Corey Kluber, Jamison Tailon, and Jordan Montgomery hold Garcia back all season.
Griffin Canning doesn't qualify as a prospect anymore, but he 24-year-old fits the narrative of a tier loaded with young arms. Canning's issues in the Majors thus far have stemmed from a four-seam fastball that posted a run value of eight last season, one of the worst marks in the game. His slider and changeup, however, rank well above average. Canning also throws a cutter so it's not hard to envision a path to success by slashing that 40.6 percent four-seamer usage in favor of his better offerings.
The other two tantalizing youngsters in this tier are Tigers prospects Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. Mize is a former number-one overall pick who got hammered in the Majors last year but was another victim of no Triple-A season. The year prior in Double-A, Mize threw 78 2/3 innings at a 3.20 ERA with a 2.98 FIP. Give up on his talent at your own risk. Then there's Skubal who struck out 82 batters in 42 2/3 innings in Double-A in 2019. Like Mize, Skubal got roughed up in his first MLB action but the best is yet to come for the future of the Tigers.
Tier 10
This is the last tier I'm willing to draft from when it comes to rounding out a starting rotation for fantasy in a 12-team league. They're not ideal, but Madison Bumgarner, Mike Minor, Josh Lindblom, and Jake Odorizzi make for fine starters to own and deploy when they have a good matchup. Odorizzi is an interesting name after signing with the Astros. We've seen Houston turn worse pitchers into quality starters for fantasy and Odorizzi was good in 2019 pitching to a 3.51 ERA with a 27 percent strikeout rate.
Mitch Keller has certainly had an odd start to his MLB career which is why it's strange to see his average draft position this low. Sure he's gotten off to a rocky start in his two seasons, but this is still a pitcher who's thrown less than 70 Big League innings. Keller sports three "plus" pitches and revamped his changeup this offseason. The talent that made him a sought-after prospect still exists and he's available roughly 100 picks later than he was drafted in 2020.
Finally, I can't go through tier 10 without mentioning Matthew Boyd. The left-hander sports some of the best advanced-metrics in the game, but you'd never know it watching him serve up homers like he's pitching a tennis ball. Boyd induced swinging-strikes at a 12.5 percent rate last season, good for 15th in baseball. Each of the 14 starters above him is tier five or better in this year's rankings. Boyd had the third-highest HR/FB rate last season and had the worst strand-rate since he was a rookie. He may explode spectacularly again, but at this price, you won't find a pitcher with more upside. Roll the dice on Boyd with me.
Tier 11
There are two types of pitchers to target here, the first is high-upside young arms that could make a big impact if everything goes well. Dylan Cease has a career ERA of five across his first two MLB seasons but is someone who consistently put up good numbers in the minors and could be a strong fantasy asset with a few improvements. He has a heater that sits at 97.5 MPH and is backed by one of MLB's best offenses.
The other type of pitcher to target may not be the most flattering of options, but they can pitch well when they have a good matchup and will help fill out a rotation in deeper fantasy leagues. J.T. Brubaker of the Pirates is by no means a league-winner, but he'll be out there every fifth day and outperformed his stat line last year. There's also Kyle Freeland in this tier who has been a solid streamer at times in his career. You won't want to play him in his home starts, but Freeland has upside and who knows, he may get even traded this year as the Rockies begin a rebuild.
Tier 12
J.A. Happ is interesting as a bounce-back candidate but by this point, I'd hope to have most of my pitching staff filled out. Happ had a sub-four FIP every season from 2015 through 2018 with decent strikeout numbers. His career has taken a dip since then, but he signed a one-year deal in Minnesota and will be relied on to eat innings for the Twins. He can pick up some cheap wins and strikeouts.
Prospect enthusiasts will also recognize a couple of popular names in Dean Kremer of the Orioles and Matt Manning of the Tigers. Kremer made four starts last year at the Big League level and got hit hard. Step one for Kremer will be to get his walks under control as he battled uncharacteristic walk issues in the Majors. Manning hasn't pitched above Double-A, but he's a former first-round pick and posted strong strikeout totals in the minors. He'll likely start at Triple-A, but he's a worthy stash candidate this deep in the draft.
Tier 13
We'll start the tier with Kyle Gibson who was just named the Rangers Opening Day starter. Gibson has some name-recognition going for him, but he pitched to a 5.35 ERA with a 5.70 xERA last season. His xBA and hard-hit rates have gone up in three-straight seasons and it seems the sun has set on the fantasy career of a former reliable arm.
Does your 5x5 league still use wins? If so, Colin McHugh is an outstanding sleeper target. McHugh has had success as both a starter and reliever in his career with Houston and will earn a ton of cheap wins pitching as a bulk-reliever for the Rays. McHugh pitched to a 1.99 ERA in 72 1/3 innings in 2018, but became a forgotten man after a brutal 2019 and opting out of 2020. Tampa Bay has a history of getting the best out of their pitchers and McHugh should benefit from his role as a swingman for the defending AL champs.
Tier 14
Still with us? Good. We're almost at the end of a deep league draft here and are looking for dart throws that could be usable fantasy assets. Huascar Ynoa is a 22-year-old prospect in the Braves system that can be worth a stash. The same can be said for Connor Seabold of the Red Sox. Seabold is a little older than Ynoa, but both should pitch in the Majors this season.
Matt Moore and Vince Velasquez are battling for a rotation job in Philadelphia and the winner of that battle could have value, especially if it's Velasquez. He's got a dominant four-seam fastball and has a path to success if he can improve his other offerings.
The last name I want to touch on is Shane McClanahan. The 23-year-old lefty is a pitching prospect in Tampa who has been lighting up the radar gun this spring, regularly sitting 98-100 MPH. He'll start the season in Triple-A, but expect to see McClanahan early in the season. He may even appear as a reliever; Tampa is never shy about using its best pitchers as high-leverage relievers. In fact, I like his 2021 fantasy value more if he winds up in the Rays bullpen as he may be good for 5-10 saves.
Look at that, it took over 200 names and 14 tiers but we finally filled the fifth roto category after breaking down all those starters.
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