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Major League Baseball has to be the only sport where the ball not only gets altered constantly, but also with zero transparency. We saw offense start to pick up last week, but, then again, that also coincided with a run of not as great pitching talent, so it is hard to say with conviction that we can count on offense bouncing back soon. 'Tis the difficulty of evaluating players and projections results in the modern landscape of the MLB.
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Obviously, playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's ERA projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
Sadly, there are no teams playing eight games this week, nor are there any games in Colorado. Overall, this is a more difficult week for streamers, considering that the Dodgers, Rockies, Cubs, Braves, and Astros don't have a lot of streaming options, albeit for different reasons.
At the very least, there are multiple teams at the top who have seven games AND play in favorable ballparks against lower-quality pitchers. That being said, for the most part, this is the week of trade offs. Do you simply want players playing seven games this week? Do you target hitters playing in friendly ballparks? Or, are you looking ahead to the pitchers they faced? Ultimately, this is the week where your priorities will show. How should you navigate through a tough week to stream hitters? Let's go over that here!
Stats via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Tommy Pham, OF, Cincinnati Reds
46% rostered
It wouldn't be a hitter streamer and starts article with Tommy Pham in it! The Reds playing five games all on the road prevented him from being on last week's edition, but as we continue our quest to get him over 50% rostered, he's back and still thriving.
For the season, Pham currently has a .240/.357/.380 slash line and a 112 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+). That being said, there's no reason not to expect those numbers to continue to improve. For the season, the 34-year-old has a 10.1% barrel rate, is hitting the ball extraordinary hard (56.2% hard-hit), and could have an even higher barrel rate based on his 13.5% solid contact rate. Oh, and for what it's worth, he's been hitting fewer ground balls (44.9%) than ever so far. There's no reason to not expect both his 11.8% home run/fly ball rate (HR/FB%) and .294 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to continue to go up, particularly playing in Great American Ballpark.
Speaking of which, the Reds have seven games this week, all at the most favorable stadium for home runs, per Baseball Savant. While he'll be facing a strong slate of pitchers for the most part, the run environment based on the ballpark he'll play in makes up for it. Plus, as someone who'll have plenty of opportunities to score runs based on his on-base skills, as well as his plus power and a .250-.260 batting average that would be above-average in today's landscape, he's simply a player that deserves to be rostered in more leagues than he is currently. If Pham is somehow still available in your league, now is the time to grab him.
MJ Melendez, C, Kansas City Royals
29% rostered
Back for the second week in a row, and for good reason. With Salvador Perez on the injured list, Melendez's playing time is only going to be greater moving forward, which he's perfectly fit to handle.
To say Melendez dominated the minors last season would be a massive understatement. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 162 wRC+, demonstrated massive power (.337 ISO), as well as strong plate discipline numbers (14.1% BB, 21.7% K). While his surface-level numbers were poor in Triple-A this season, his plate discipline was roughly the same, and most of that can be attributed to unfortunate batted-ball luck in a very small sample.
With just 38 career MLB plate appearances, we don't have a lot of data on Melendez. That being said, he has certainly impressed so far. Of his 24 batted balls, 58.3% of them have been over 95 MPH, while his ability to pull the ball (50%) and in the air (37.5% fly ball) isn't a surprise based on his contact sprays in the minors. Add in the plate discipline (22.7% chase, 84.8% zone contact), which also should be expected based on his minor-league production.
Although Melendez's batting average isn't likely to be tremendous, it's actually quite passable when the league-wide batting average for catchers is .213. Meanwhile, the power production he brings to the table also gives him a leg up at the catcher position, which has struggled more than ever (84 wRC+, .128 ISO) offensively this season. Although the Royals only play six games this week, they are all against right-handed pitching and a beneficial schedule overall. It's rare to find a quality catcher under 50% rostered, but here we are. A he continues to produce, his stock is only going to go up, so now is the time to add him!
Gio Urshela, 3B/SS, Minnesota Twins
25% rostered
Speaking of hitters who have consistently served as productive streaming options in the past, here comes Gio Urshela! Generally, a hitter with an 85 wRC+ isn't the most appealing option. Yet, care not about what a player has done in the past. Care what he will do for you in the future.
With a .229/.293/.330 slash line, it's been a tough start to the season for Urshela. Sure, he had a down season (96 wRC+) last year, but remember this was a player with a 132 wRC+ between 2019 and 2020. Even with some batted-ball luck, that is mightily impressive; he profiled as a player who would provide your fantasy team with a high-end batting average, with enough power as well.
Although Urshela's current numbers don't look promising, his .237 BABIP points to obvious positive regression. In fact, his contact skills (19% whiff) have been remarkably encouraging after his strikeout rate spiked last year, meaning that with just average batted-ball luck, he can provide your fantasy team with a boost in batting average.
Urshela also benefits from hitting in a Twins lineup that can score a lot of runs; against lefties specifically, he'll usually find himself hitting right in the thick of the order. Minnesota not only plays seven games this week against an average Tigers rotation and a Royals rotation that has the worst skill interactive ERA (SIERA) in the MLB, but they play three games against lefties, working even better for Urshela.
There will be plenty of RBI opportunities for the 30-year-old, while seven games of his contact skills can help considerably for your team batting average. Plus, he'll likely find himself back on this list next week with Minnesota playing eight games, so you're really getting a streaming option for multiple weeks. Add his corner infield and middle infield eligibility, and he's a tremendous pickup for your fantasy team.
Enrique Hernandez, 2B/OF, Boston Red Sox
21% rostered
Oh, so you thought it was tough to stomach picking up a player with an 85 wRC+? Try a hitter with a 53 wRC+. With a .182/.253/.277 slash line, it's been quite the rough season for someone who had a a breakout year with a 110 wRC+ just a season ago. Can he get back on track? We should still be optimistic.
It's easy to look at Hernandez's Baseball Savant page and be discouraged. That being said, do we really expect him to keep up with a 22.3% pop-up rate, which is around twice as high as his career average? Unless he truly is a statistical anomaly, that probably won't hold up. This has completely deflated his BABIP to .216, and over time, that should correct itself.
After all, Hernandez's called-strike + whiff rate (25.6%) is actually better than last year and his max exit velocity (110.6) is in the same range. Really, it just comes down to him hitting too many pop-ups, which, fortunately, won't sustain. THE BAT X still projects Hernandez for a 120 wRC+ and a .246/.322/.437 slash line, which would certainly more than get the job done.
Remember, Hernandez is still the leadoff hitter for a Red Sox offense that is still immensely talented. Plus, not only does Boston have seven games this week, but the schedule is favorable. Facing Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito isn't ideal, but after that Boston will face: Vince Velasquez, Kyle Bradish, Spenser Watkins, Bruce Zimmermann, and Tyler Wells. Even though pitchers like Bradish, Zimmermann, and Wells have long-term intrigue, that means that Boston's final five pitchers faced all have projected ERAs from Fangraphs Depth Chart projections for a 4.63 ERA or higher.
Heck, the Red Sox even get four games at home in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park, while Guaranteed Rate Field is the seventh most hitter-friendly ballpark for right-handed hitters, per Baseball Savant. Between a talented player due for some better results ahead and the very favorable schedule for Boston, Hernandez is set to perform very well this week. Don't miss out!
Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Washington Nationals
11% rostered
It's a Hernandez party! That's what happens when you're the leadoff hitter for a team playing seven games this week, particularly when it comes with extra opportunity based on the pitchers he's facing.
To be fair, Hernandez certainly wouldn't profile as a "flashy" addition for your fantasy team. The 31-year-old has just a 4.6% barrel rate, nor does he steal many bases, so he essentially doesn't bring much for three categories. That being said, that doesn't mean he doesn't hold value for your fantasy team.
Since he makes above-average contact (23.7% whiff), and doesn't hit the ball much in the air with even sprays, Hernandez is able to profile as a player who can provide your team with a solid batting average. Now, will he maintain a .354 BABIP? Almost certainly not. Yet because of his profile at the plate, he has consistently run high enough BABIPs to support at least a .260 batting average, which certainly works in today's offensive landscape.
Most importantly though, Hernandez is in position to score a lot of runs this week. Not only does he play everyday and bats leadoff, but Washington gets four games against a subpar Rockies pitching staff, vaulting them to the third-easiest slate of opposing starting pitchers. Furthermore, Nationals Park is the fifth-most friendly ballpark for hitters, per Baseball Savant park factors, and Washington will play all seven games there. If your lineup allows mid-week lineup changes, he's a great addition just for the four-game series against the Rockies. The runs should still be there for the whole week even if you're in a weekly league. Hey, just because it doesn't exciting doesn't mean it isn't the right move!
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