RADIO
We have a very, very interesting and different fantasy year upon us and it is our duty as fake football players to adjust our draft strategies accordingly.
That doesn’t mean that you can’t win by executing the well-known draft strategies like balance, Zero RB, value, and so on. But, what it does mean is that there are unique opportunities that exist this year that you can take advantage of to gain an advantage.
Remember, if you are playing in many leagues or really challenging leagues, you will most likely have to do something different to stand out.
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Why This Year is Different
1. Depth
I believe we are seeing greater depth than we are accustomed to. I’m seeing strong middle-round depth at RB and WR and late-round depth at QB and TE.
RB - Let’s take a look at RB for a moment. Usually after the first two rounds, there is a massive drop-off in RB talent and we have to make the decision between shared backfield RBs and/or strong handcuffs that could thrive with an injury. This year, we have the ability to draft starting RBs with tremendous upside and opportunity from the third – seventh rounds!
Care to start with two WRs? That’s ok because you can come around to the third and grab James Connor, Breece Hall, or Josh Jacobs to solidify your RB1 slot. Want to wait even longer? How about Cam Akers, Travis Etienne, or Elijah Mitchell? And for your RB2 slot, there are RBs going late like AJ Dillon, Rashaad Penny, Kareem Hunt, Chase Edmonds, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Devin Singletary. I can’t recall a time in the last five years that this level of depth existed at RB.
WR - While it’s not unusual over the past few years, there is great depth in the middle round for WR again. Players such as Diontae Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, Mike Williams, Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf, Gabriel Davis, Courtland Sutton, Rashod Bateman, Michael Thomas, Tyler Lockett, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Robert Woods, and more have the opportunity to finish WR2 or better.
QB - Many have made the case for late-round QB, as passing has become more prominent in the NFL, affording us many options late in the draft or off of the wire. But has there ever been this much depth? There are QBs in many 12-team drafts that aren’t even being taken off the board and could finish not only as QB1s but in the top-six like Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins. Dare I mention names like Matt Ryan, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jameis Winston that are stepping into fantastic situations?
TE - Lastly, I’ll point to TE where I think there are some real late-round values with primed spots to bust out. Zach Ertz is going in like the eighth or ninth round on a team where the star WR is out for at least six games and the next two stand 5’9” and under. Forgot to draft TE and find yourself in the 10th round plus? No worries, there are talents like Cole Kmet and David Njoku who could outperform their ADPs by 8+ rounds.
2. Change
There has been a ton of change among QBs, influential players, and coaches, which makes things very interesting. At QB, we have change with Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz, and potentially Jimmy Garoppolo. For influential players, we have Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper, Marquise Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Edmonds, Robert Woods, Russell Gage, Christian Kirk, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jarvis Landry, James Washington, and more.
And lastly, coaching. I don’t think coaching can be understated and the biggest moves come for the Giants and Jaguars. For the former, they get the OC from the Bills, Brian Daboll, heading up their staff. And for the latter, the Jags get back their dignity with Doug Pederson. Change breeds opportunity, and that opportunity is beyond just drafting a player who falls in a better situation.
Now, let’s get to the good stuff. Knowing that there is tremendous mid-round depth at RB and WR and late-round depth at QB and TE, what can we do to gain an edge? Wait until at least the 10th round to Draft QB and TE and consider taking more than one of each!
Draft Multiple QBs and TEs Late
Whether it’s five RBs and five WRs or six and four based on the breakdown of your league, go all in on your two most important positions time and time again for the first 10 rounds.
Don’t get jelly when you see Kelce and Kyler and Pitts come off the board. Don’t even get dissuaded when Dalton Schultz or Dak are available in the seventh or eighth. The opportunity cost is too great this season and you can wait and wait to grab great options at QB and TE late.
For QB, I suggest Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, or Tua Tagovailoa and combine them with Trevor Lawrence, Jameis Winston, or Daniel Jones, who could all take large leaps forward this year. You can always drop extras in the first few weeks.
And for TE, I recommend Zach Ertz, Cole Kmet, Pat Freiermuth, David Njoku, Irv Smith Jr., Hunter Henry, or Evan Engram, and again, think about taking two and making a decision early in the season. After that, go back to AllBenchRB, which is a strategy that I developed to stock your bench up with as many RBs as possible throughout the season.
And what shall we do about all of the change we have seen in the league? Can’t we just take Tua, DJ Moore, and Terry McLaurin now that their situations have improved? Yes of course, but I think there is an opportunity to take a big risk that could pay off in a big way and to stack the hell out of these changes.
Fantasy Football Stack Attack
What an opportunity there is to stack like crazy and get rewarded. There have been so many changes and there is so much ambiguity that you can go deep on a team or two and hit the jackpot.
This is an especially good strategy if playing in leagues with tons of entries or very challenging leagues where you find yourself underperforming year after year. Oh, and it’s fun as hell and you can always make up for draft mistakes during the season. Here are my craziest and favorite stacks for the season, some of which overlap with my previous strategy.
Las Vegas Raiders
Most teams will have the opportunity to grab Davante Adams in the first round. Adams should really shuffle things up in Las Vegas, opening the field for other players and giving Derek Carr a massive boost. Check out this draft for ideas:
- 1st Round: Davante Adams
- 3rd Round: Josh Jacobs
- 4th Round: Darren Waller
- 10th Round+: Hunter Renfrow, Derek Carr, Daniel Carlson
Indianapolis Colts
I think Matt Ryan is the biggest upgrade of the year and is going to be stellar with a good offensive line. All ships will rise.
- Rd 1: Jonathan Taylor – if first or second pick
- Rd 3/4: Michael Pittman Jr.
- Rd 10+: Nyheim Hines, Matt Ryan, Paris Campbell, Rodrigo Blankenship
New York Giants
New OC from the Bills and these picks are cheap. Giddyup.
- Round 2: Saquon Barkley
- Round 10+ Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, Daniel Jones, Graham Gano
Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, and a slew of other RBs to give Tua the weapons he needs.
- Round 2: Tyreek Hill
- Round 5: Jaylen Waddle
- Round 8: Chase Edmonds
- Rounds 10+: Mike Gesicki, Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Myles Gaskin, Sony Michel, Jason Sanders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year was a shit show and it’s time to move on with Doug Pederson. Amidst the whole mess, Trevor Lawrence actually fared decently well with 3,641 Yards and 12 TDs. He’ll get some upgrades beyond coaching with Christian Kirk, a healthy Travis Etienne, and a talented Evan Engram.
- Round 6/7: Travis Etienne
- Round 7/8: James Robinson
- Round 10+: Christian Kirk, Trevor Lawrence, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, Evan Engram, Josh Lambo
Philadelphia Eagles: A.J. Brown and a more experienced Jalen Hurts should lead to an offensive leap.
- Round 3: A.J. Brown
- Round 7: Miles Sanders
- Round 8: DeVonta Smith
- Round 9: Dallas Goedert
- Round 10+: Kenneth Gainwell, Jake Elliott, Boston Scott
Denver Broncos: Holy Russell Wilson. What a great situation to land in. This offense is going to see a major boost.
- Round 2: Javonte Williams
- Round 5: Courtland Sutton
- Round 6: Jerry Jeudy
- Round 10: Tim Patrick
- Round 10+: Melvin Gordon, Albert Okwuegbunam, Brandon McManus
So in summary, this is a great year to draft WR and RB all the way through Round 10 before opting for TE and QB. And when you do, consider taking more than one of each.
If you want to take advantage of all the shuffling of players and coaches, try stacking teams that have been the beneficiaries of positive change.
That’s all folks. Thanks for your eyes and ears. Hit me up on Twitter @BrettMitchellFB
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