RADIO
The Washington Redskins passing offense surprised last season, finishing second in the NFL in passing yards behind only the New Orleans Saints. However, their 21st-ranked rushing offense left plenty of room for improvement for the looming 2017 season. Second-year running back Matt Jones started the season as the lead back until his benching in week 8. Jones was a healthy scratch the last eight games of the season, giving way for rookie Rob Kelley to finish out the season. Kelley and third-down back Chris Thompson performed quite well for the remainder of the season, but the selection of the former Oklahoma Sooner Samaje Perine in the fourth round of the 2017 NFL draft has created a running back competition in Washington.
Jones has been informed that he is no longer in the Redskins' plans for the future and is likely to be waived prior to the season, leaving only Kelley and Perine competing for early-down carries with Thompson locked in as the third-down back. While Kelley did overachieve as a rookie, he struggled the final six games following his breakout performance against the Green Bay Packers where he totaled 137 yards and 3 TDs. Kelley averaged an unimpressive 3.3 yards per carry in the last six games while only finding the end zone twice. He remains the starter for now, although his grasp on the job seems to be very tenuous.
Even if Kelley is the starter on opening day, it is unlikely that he will be able to hold Perine off for the duration of the season. If, and likely when, Perine is able to take over the starting duties in Washington, look for him to present solid fantasy value for a couple of reasons.
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Reasons to Own Perine in 2017
Ability
The 5'11", 233 lb Perine left Oklahoma as their all-time leading rusher with 4,122 yards and 49 TD in only three seasons. He passed up current NFL players such as Adrian Peterson and DeMarco Murray on the team record boards, which is not bad company. He proved to be a durable workhorse throughout college as well, with 685 total carries during his time in Norman. Perine has also shown an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, which could give him a deciding edge over Rob Kelley in Kirk Cousins' offense by giving the team more flexibility on first and second down. He has the intelligence, work ethic, and talent to be an every-down back in the NFL, and his abilities have not gone unnoticed by coach Jay Gruden. Gruden referred to Perine as "impressive" and a "hard-worker" during rookie mini-camp. The concern of fantasy owners towards Perine is more likely due to the uncertainty surrounding who will start than his ability, but opportunity should present itself early and often in the high-powered Jay Gruden offense.
Opportunity
It is not often that a running back selected in the fourth round becomes the favorite to win the starting job before even participating in team practice, but that is the case with Perine. He was drafted into a perfect situation where there is little competition for touches and abundant opportunity to thrive. The Redskins return all five starters from their very formidable 2016 offensive line that paved the way for the eighth-best yards per rush attempt in the NFL. If the Redskins can manage a top-10 yards per carry rushing attack with Matt Jones and Rob Kelley dominating the touches, imagine the success that Perine could have. The bruising Perine is a perfect fit in Washington's power-based run scheme, and his presence should be used to ease the burden on Kirk Cousins. Perine should see the majority of goal line touches due to his strength between the tackles and versatility out of the backfield. Kelley and Thompson often reveal the hand of the team when they're in due to their respective limitations, giving Perine the opportunity to become the feature back of a top-three NFL offense in terms of yards per game.
Conclusion
When ability and opportunity overlap, the result is often a good one for fantasy owners. Perine clearly has the talent and drive to succeed on the NFL level, and as of now he is in very good shape to secure a a solid role for the Redskins offense. Should his transition to the NFL take longer than expected he may see a limited role at the beginning of the season, but I find it unlikely that he remains sidelined too long. With his current ADP of 90, Samaje Perine presents a low-risk high-reward option in the eighth round of drafts. Should he become the starter prior to the season's start watch for his ADP to rise up to 50-60.
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