RADIO
The Week 4 slate on Draftkings and FanDuel is going to be missing quite a few studs! We began the slate with none of the Green Bay or Atlanta studs because they play on Monday Night. We then had the already old news that none of the Titans or Steelers will be available. And then just in the last 24 hours, we found out that a number of other studs won't be playing either like Michael Thomas.
It just means that the need to find value picks becomes even more important in Week 4!
Here are my week 4 GPP Value plays, picks that should produce but should also be relatively low owned and won't cost you too much salary cap.
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Week 4 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Deshaun Watson vs. Vikings (DraftKings $6600, FanDuel $7800)
My suspicion is that many will roster both sides of the SEA/MIA game. Some will pay the premium for Russel Wilson while others will prefer to skimp on the position and hope for a little Fitzmagic. In addition to that game, I think most fill flock to the QB edges this week. Jackson/Mahomes/Josh Allen will see heavy ownership, as will much cheaper players like Mayfield, Burrow, and Stafford. But that leaves us with some very low ownership on some of the mid-salary QB options and that includes Watson.
Watson has not had any big games yet. He also hasn't had any really bad ones either. And that's despite being sacked by Baltimore four times in between KC and Pittsburgh who are both currently in the top ten stingiest defenses when it comes to allowing quarterback fantasy points. The Vikings meanwhile are allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt.
This is the first game this season that the Texans are projected to win, with a team implied total of around 28. I don't always agree with the oddsmakers, but I do see the Texans scoring four touchdowns this week. Watson accounts for at least three of 'em, and at this price, that's the definition of a value play.
Week 4 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
I really wanted to include Devin Singletary here. LVR has been the league-worst at preventing fantasy points to RBs. But I included him here last week. Secondly, I was shocked to see the name under Singletary at $100 cheaper! And that was...
Joe Mixon vs. Jaguars (DraftKings $5800, FanDuel $6800)
This is an absolute eye-opening salary for Mixon, but I get it. Mixon is off to a miserable start and has yet to crack the endzone, 70 rushing yards, 20 carries, or even a moderate 4.0 yard per carry average in a single week this season. Despite being drafted typically near the end of the first round during preseason fantasy drafts, he's been a low-end RB2 at best. And yet, I can't shake this feeling that he suddenly rewards his owners this week.
Yes, the Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines this year, but they weren't particularly good last year either. Yet Mixon still had over 1400 combined yards and eight touchdowns last season. Some of the issues has been a rookie quarterback and game script. However, Joe Burrow is getting better and I think the Bengals can control this game. Jacksonville just got gashed by Myles Gaskin last Thursday and I think we can agree that Mixon is the far more polished running back, right?
We are in the valley of Mixon's salary costs right now. Expect his salary to climb back up the mountain and soon.
Week 4 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Jarvis Landry at Cowboys (DraftKings $5100, FanDuel $5700)
Earlier this week I detailed all the reasons why I like the Cleveland passing game this week. I continue to feel much the same as I did and it's worth the read. In fact, since then I read that Dallas has the highest opponent's drop rate in the league. This means as bad as they have been, they could have been even worse! However, one thing I would like to reverse my field on is that I am starting to like Jarvis Landry as the non-chalk option behind Beckham over Hooper.
Landry has been toughing it out and is getting healthier each week. But you might want to buy Landry now before that window shuts. Dallas will still be without their top two CBs and have thus really struggled against slot receivers. It started with Cooper Kupp in week 1 who was targeted five times and finished with four catches for forty yards. Things got worse in week 2 when Russell Gage caught six passes for 46 yards and a touchdown. Things really bottomed out last week when Tyler Lockett torched Dallas with nine catches, 100 yards, and three touchdowns.
Just a reminder, Jarvis Landry plays the slot. And one of the issues with Landry this season is that Cleveland has yet to be in a situation where they are forced to pass against a bad secondary. I think we can describe this week's CLE/DAL game as exactly that.
Week 4 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Mike Gesicki, Dolphins at Seahawks (DraftKings $5100, FanDuel $5700)
Speaking of game script, can we agree that Seattle is going to score quite a few points on Miami this weekend? Let's skip the debate whether it will be Russell Wilson's arm or a strong ground game. The point is Miami is going to need to pass to keep up with Seattle. And we know that it's not the Miami WRs grabbing the attention right now but the running game. However, Gesicki is very quietly off to a fantastic start. He's probably not going to continue his torrid pace to put up double-digit touchdowns, but he should be able to maintain his pace for over 60 catches and nearly 1,000 receiving yards.
Meanwhile, we know the Seattle secondary has been atrocious as well. They are giving up the second-most yards per pass attempt (8.5), somewhat ironically only behind Miami (8.8). Gesicki is averaging over six targets per game so far this year. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews should see the majority of ownership because we know they will be heavily targeted. Should Gesicki see six passes his way this Sunday, expect a huge game, one that will easily make him a great week 4 GPP value play.
