RADIO
Huh. Well there aren't a lot of pitchers in line for two starts in Week 11. In fact by my count there are only 19 pitchers projected to make two starts this week. This is going to make things a bit tougher when it comes to finding two-start streamers on the waiver-wire.
But before we get into that mess, let's recap the last two weeks. Looking at Week 9, the slight edge goes to Austin Gomber (1-1, 3.00 ERA, 13 K) as the winner of the week, although Spencer Turnbull (1-0, 3.09 ERA, 9 K) was a very close second. So far in Week 10, I've been burned once again by an Oakland pitcher going up against Seattle (first Cole Irvin, now James Kaprielian, ugh), but Mike Minor has gotten off to a great start by allowing two runs over six innings while striking out seven and earning the win against the Pirates.
And now we'll take a look at Week 11 and find the best options in a very limited pool of players.
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Week 11 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Matthew Boyd, DET - 50% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs SEA, vs CHW
Boyd got off to a nice start this year, going 2-3 with a 1.94 ERA and 29 strikeouts over his first seven starts. But suddenly things have gone downhill over his last four starts, as he has gone 0-3 with a 7.84 ERA against the Cubs, Royals, Indians and Brewers.
His latest outing against Milwaukee was particularly disastrous, as he allowed a season-high three homers and five earned runs over 4 2/3 innings of work. Despite the recent struggles, he has actually managed to increase his strikeout rate from 17.9 percent over his first seven starts to 22.2 percent in his last four appearances.
But now looking forward to this week's matchup (and at the risk of jinxing myself again), Boyd should get a nice matchup when he starts off Week 11 by facing the Mariners in Detroit. Boyd has pitched far better at home this season (2.87 ERA, 1.009 WHIP) than on the road (5.47 ERA, 1.419 WHIP), and he will also benefit from the fact the Mariners are hitting slightly worse against left-handers (.203/.273/.362, 27.7 K%) than against right-handers (.207/.286/.363, 25.5 K%).
But after that matchup with Seattle, he'll have a far tougher task when he faces off against the White Sox. While the White Sox have hit slightly worse on the road (.251/.333/.408) than at home (.260/.352/.405), they are also feasting on left-handed pitchers, slashing .278/.358/.468 as opposed to their .249/.339/.386 line against right-handed pitching.
This is the classic "one good start, one bad start" dilemma. Boyd should do well against Seattle, but that Chicago matchup could very well go sideways. He could get lucky against the White Sox, as they have been in a bit of a slump over their last 15 games where they are slashing .232/.325/.374. If Chicago's slump can continue, and if he can keep up the increased strikeout numbers, then Boyd could be a decent option to choose in Week 11.
Adbert Alzolay, CHC - 47% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ SDP, vs STL
While Boyd may have gotten off to a good start and has started to struggle recently, the opposite is true with Alzolay. He started off the year with a 4.62 ERA and 27.5 percent strikeout rate over his first seven starts, and now over his last three outings, Alzolay has gone 2-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 26.8 percent strikeout rate. One of the biggest keys to his success is that he has cut down on the walks drastically, as his 5.2 percent walk rate is a career-best mark and ranks in the 88th percentile this season.
He'll open up the week with a rematch against the Padres, who he limited to one run over five innings while striking out seven in his latest start. Interestingly enough, Alzolay was able to have success against San Diego despite being on the wrong side of their batting splits, as they are hitting far better against right-handers (.239/.322/.391) than against left-handers ( .230/.322/.344). And in this matchup, San Diego could have a slight edge as they are hitting a little better at home (.239/.337/.375) than on the road (.235/.308/.385).
He should have a nice matchup in his second start against the Cardinals, as they are not only hitting worse against right-handers (.225/.294/.380, 23.1 K%) than against lefties (.253/.335/.454, 21.7 K%), but they are also hitting worse on the road (.217/.294/.400) than at home (.248/.312/.384). Oh, and also Alzolay held the Cardinals to just two runs over seven innings while striking out six in his last start against St. Louis.
While I think Boyd could have a solid Week 11, Alzolay is the guy I think has the higher ceiling this week. Target Alzolay first and foremost in any format.
Kris Bubic, KCR - 36% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ LAA, @ OAK
Alright I'm breaking the rules this week and giving you a third option who's rostered within the 25-50 percent range. There just really weren't many options in the under-25 percent category to begin with, and there were even fewer that I'd want to take a chance on this week.
OK granted, Bubic didn't look so hot in his start on Thursday against the Twins, where he allowed three earned runs over 4 2/3 innings, but he did still tie his season-high with six strikeouts. He should get a decent start to the week when he takes on the Angels, as they are hitting worse against left-handers (.237/.316/.386) than against right-handers (.249/.303/.419), however they are doing far better playing at home (.259/.323/.459) than on the road (.233/.292/.364).
And then funnily enough, when he takes on the Athletics for his second start he'll be on the opposite side of those splits. Oakland is hitting better against lefties (.239/.321/.426) than against righties (.224/.309/.394), but they are also hitting worse at home (.213/.312/.376) than on the road (.249/.316/.442).
While I don't see him as having the highest fantasy value this week, I do see him as likely the safest bet out of this list. Or at the very least, he'll be the least likely to absolutely blow up and decimate your stats this week. He should be a solid option in most formats.
Week 11 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Antonio Senzatela, COL - 3% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ MIA, @ CIN
Whenever you get the chance, you should always try to take advantage of Rockies pitchers when they have good matchups away from Coors Field. Although the irony with Senzatela is that it seems he's a Rockies pitcher that throughout his career plays better at home (23-12, 4.74 ERA) than on the road (11-18, 5.18 ERA).
He's been on a pretty solid run of starts recently, posting going 1-1 with a 2.28 ERA over his last four starts, including an outing against the Reds in which he limited them to one run over seven innings. If he can put up a similar outing in his rematch at the end of the week, he should be in line for a solid performance in Week 11 after taking on a Marlins squad that is hitting worse against right-handers (.229/.300/.357) than against left-handers (.234/.299/.391).
The strikeout potential is going to be very limited with Senzatela, as he sports a 13.2 percent strikeout rate and has not struck out more than four batters in a start this year. But he could be a decent boost to ERA and WHIP this week, and if you're lucky might add in a win as well. Senzatela is definitely a deeper-league play this week, but could provide some help to managers looking for a slight boost in the rate categories.
Sam Hentges, CLE - 1% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ STL, vs SEA
Like I said, not a lot of great options this week, and Hentges probably has the lowest potential in Week 11 out of the guys on this list. It hasn't been a great season for Hentges, who owns a 7.15 ERA over four starts and four relief appearances. But he has posted a solid 21.4 percent strikeout rate over 22 2/3 innings.
He'll be another guy in the "one good start, one bad start" category this week, as the start against St. Louis figures to be a tough one, given that he will be on the opposite end of both the lefty-righty splits and home-road splits that Alzolay will be benefitting from this week. But that being said, his second start against Seattle has potential to be a solid outing, as he benefits from the same lefty-righty splits that Boyd will benefit from in his start.
While Senzatela is a guy who could help in ERA but not provide much assistance to strikeouts, I see Hentges as being a solid strikeout guy this week who could very well blow up your ERA. What I would actually recommend this week, is if Boyd, Alzolay and Bubic are all already rostered, look to pick up both Senzatela and Hentges off the waiver-wire. If you start both of them in Week 11, I think they could combine to provide comparable value to any one of Boyd, Alzolay or Bubic.
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