RADIO
Tonight we have a full 15-game slate on deck and pitching options in all tiers that are enormous upgrades from what we had to work with last night. Lineup lock is at 7:05 with every team playing under the lights. As a result of every team participating in the Main contest, there are some monster GPP pools to dip into. Monster GPP pools are what makes Tuesdays half tolerable.
Now, I have to preface this by saying the lines are sure to move before first pitch, but I'd be remiss and totally out of character if I didn't call out a few of these that look interesting as of Monday night. The biggest favorites of the night are the Dodgers at -295, which is none too surprising when you see Clayton Kershaw listed as the starting pitcher. After a steep drop off, we then have the Astros (-195), the Pirates (-155), and the Rockies (-142) to round out the large and/or notable favorites. For run total projections - especially helpful when deciding which stacks to deploy in cash games and tournaments - the Rockies rule the roost at 6.3, followed by the Yankees (5.6), Astros (5.6), Dodgers (5.5), Orioles (5.5), Diamondbacks (5.4), Royals (5.4) and the Padres (5.3). Those are some pretty high totals, but the rest of the teams aren't too far behind. Keep an eye on the late movement on these figures.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/18/17. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Let's get to it, shall we?
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DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider
Clayton Kershaw - P, @ CWS (DK - $14,000, FD - $12,700)
He's the greatest pitcher on the board almost every night but the gap between he and the next best pitcher tonight is quite large. In other words, you need to be prepared to pay up for him as your cash game pitcher. The matchup tonight isn't perfect but it does have upside as well. Kershaw is taking the bump in Chicago which is a downgrade for a pitcher but he does a good job of keeping the ball in the yard (1.1 HR/9) and an excellent job of limiting hard contact, with a 27% mark this season (a number that is just 21% over the past 15 days). The upside I mentioned? It's in the form of strikeouts, of course. Kershaw has a 10.5 K/9 mark over the past 12 months and the White Sox are no opponent to striking out - their projected lineup for tonight owns a collective 25.6% K rate. On top of all that, the Dodgers are the biggest favorites tonight and the White Sox have the lowest run projection of the night by nearly a run at 3.1. I think he's got a great start for a Quality Start in addition to enough run support for the win to go with his 7+ strikeouts.
Brad Peacock - P, vs SEA (DK - $10,300, FD - $9,200)
Peacock's consistent brilliance finally caught the attention of DraftKings and FanDuel because we're seeing five digit price tags for the first time. He's not the value he once was due to that, but he's still a much cheaper option than Kershaw (and a relative value today) and the price increase is a little easier to stomach in guys like Peacock thanks to his strikeout artistry. Speaking of that, he owns an excellent mark in that respect this season with his 11.2 K/9 and he's paired that with a 0.7 HR/9, which has helped him to be so effective. His StatCast data is favorable as well, as it showcases the fact that he's been able to limit hard hit balls (27% hard hit rate allowed, 87 mph exit velocity). He takes on a Seattle opponent tonight that isn't the ideal matchup but it's not one to avoid in tournament formats and if the Vegas data is something you trust, at -195 favorites, he might be viable as a SP2 in cash games as well.
Also Consider: Blake Snell - P, at OAK (DK $6,600, FD - $6,400)
DFS Infielders to Consider
Catcher (C)
Evan Gattis (DK - $4,200, FD - $2,700)
There is a lot to love about this matchup, starting with the Astros entirely. They're currently pegged with the second highest run projection, and I think Gattis and his teammates will benefit from plenty of RBI/run scoring opportunities. Gattis is facing Sam Giviglio, who has turned in a few respectable performances this season but it's been quite some time since that happened. Lately, he's been getting shelled and his wOBA and ISO allowed over his last three starts are both over .400. And of course there are Gattis' marks, starting with his splits over the last year that are quite attractive - .381 wOBA and a .267 ISO.
First Base (1B)
Cody Bellinger (DK - $4,900, FD - $3,800)
Good news, guys - the Home Run Derby didn't ruin Bellinger's swing. Since the return from the break, Cody has already left the yard a few times and collected a handful of doubles. In this inter-league matchup, he's getting a park upgrade and the matchup itself is one that is very favorable for left-handed hitters - something the Dodgers have in large quantities. Miguel Gonzalez has allowed a slugging percentage to lefties this season over .500 and Bellinger and his .421 wOBA and .400 ISO splits are sure to take advantage.
Second Base (2B)
Matt Carpenter (DK - $4,000, FD - $3,900)
Carpenter is really heating up and he's always someone I'd suggest riding until that wave crashes. He enters this game with a very impressive 50% hard hit rate over the past two weeks and pairs that with a 41% fly ball rate which gives him a bit more home run upside. He's going into Citi Field which is a pitcher's park but the heat and humidity in New York in July is certainly helping the ball carry. His opponent, Rafael Montero, is one of the reasons that the ball has been carrying so well in Queens. He's been lit up over his past three starts, allowing a .483 wOBA and .333 ISO in that stretch. As for Carpenter, he can do damage against right-handed pitching which is showcased in his .357 wOBA and .224 ISO split.
Shortstop (SS)
Stephen Drew (DK - $3,600, FD - $2,200)
On a night where getting Kershaw in your roster is essential, it's important to find upside in cheap places. Drew is one of my favorite options that fit that description for tonight. He's been doing a fine job getting run as an every day guy and owns a 40% hard hit rate on the year. His splits against right-handed pitching are favorable (.348 wOBA) - especially for this price tier - and he generally finds himself in a favorable position near the top or middle of this Washington order. His opponent, Jesse Chavez, has been pretty kind to opposing hitters lately as well, allowing a wOBA and ISO split over .340 and .220, respectively.
Third Base (3B)
Freddie Freeman (DK - $5,000, FD - $3,800)
It still feels odd writing him in under third base but I suppose I'll get used to it at some point. Anyway, Freddie has been on a tear and I think we can safely say he's now matchup proof. Whether or not you believe that he's reached that status yet is no matter today, as the matchup is a favorable one with John Lackey opposing him. Lackey's struggles are well documented this season and I like Freeman and his .488 wOBA and .389 ISO to take advantage. Freeman's StatCast data gives me more confidence in the selection as well, seeing as he's posted a 41 % hard hit rate with a 237 foot average batted ball distance over the past two weeks.
DFS Outfielders to Consider
Charlie Blackmon - OF, vs SDP (DK - $5,600, FD - $4,900)
Yes, the price is steep, but consider the whole situation. We have one of the games premiere hitters in the most ideal hitters park, leading off against a pitcher that has allowed the highest wOBA and ISO (over his last three starts) of any pitcher taking the mound tonight. That's the description of a player you just have to get a few shares of. In addition to the fact that Dinelson Lamet should be picked on, there's also the convincing angle of Blackmon's splits, which, at a .406 wOBA and .300 ISO, are truly elite figures.
Clint Frazier - OF, at MIN (DK - $4,000, FD - $2,500)
I think the guys at DraftKing's have the same opinion as I about Frazier's upside in this matchup. The recent call-up has had his strikeout issues - which will persist - but he's shown he can shatter his price implied value when he pops a home run. He's starting to do that in bunches as well, and I think this spot tonight is as strong a matchup for him as he's had yet this year. Bartolo Colon will be taking the bump, and we're all aware just how poorly his starts have gone this season. Frazier and his strong righty-righty splits (.335 wOBA, .364 ISO) can produce here.
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