Nick Mariano's Early 2021 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

The upcoming 2021 season may not be normal -- going from 2020 to 2021 doesn't wave a magic wand -- but there's still comfort in baseball. As such, I will approach ranks as if a traditional 162-game season is coming. Join me for my position-by-position ranking series for the 2021 fantasy baseball season.

How much weight do we give 2020? How well can you erase notions such as the East, Central, and West divisions only playing each other? How about the DH in the National League. For now, I'm operating under the assumption of no NL DH moving forward. And it's clear that many familiar names may be frozen out of fair contracts as owners cry about lost revenue from the limited 2020 season.

We've covered all the hitters by now, talking about catchers, first base, second base, third base, shortstop and the outfield so far, so now we explore starting pitchers. It's early so I'll keep it light. Let's comb through my top 150 as we prepare for what we hope will be a refreshing 2021 season. NFBC ADP presented is through December 2nd.

Early 2021 Starting Pitcher Rankings - 5x5 Mixed Leagues

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. Be sure to follow his updated rankings all season long!

Tier One

It appears I have a different hierarchy for the top three compared to early NFBC Draft Champions leagues, but deGrom is my champion for 2021. I doubt I draft a pitcher in the first two rounds with next year’s mold but Cole still has some homer problems and Bieber will face non-Central teams next year. I won’t die on any hills with this trio -- draft to your heart’s content and get your SP1.

If you believe the Yanks pair Cole with Kyle Higashioka to better results and healthier Ks, then I can see it, while Bieber’s 41.1% K rate and sturdy sabermetrics supply the optimism. But I'll take the deGrominator:

Jacob deGrom vs. 2020 playoff teams

8 starts (4xMIA, 2xATL, 1xTB, 1xTOR)
1.69 ERA
0.917 WHIP
77 strikeouts in 48 innings (14.4 K/9)

— David Adler (@_dadler) November 11, 2020

Tier Two

Most of us will be choosing our first pitcher from this group, especially if some of you double-tap two Tier Ones at the elbow. Where does the top free-agent arm, Trevor Bauer, land? Some may have him in their elite tier but we’ve seen Bauer tinker and seemingly outsmart himself from performing well before so I can't trust him like the others.

The most polarizing arm here seems to be Luis Castillo, whose changeup makes us all swoon. He cut down on walks and homers in the short 2020, with a pristine 2.65 FIP and 2.82 xFIP underneath the 3.21 ERA. One of just 17 starters with at least 70 innings pitched in ‘20, Castillo was coming off 226 K in 190 ⅔ IP in ‘19 and has proven himself to be a workhorse that’s beyond the weaker 2018 campaign. Mix that with a 22.5% fly-ball rate that was eighth-lowest out of 126 SPs (min. 30 IP) in ‘20 and you’ve got ace potential on your hands. Bury that offspeed, Mr. Castillo.

Tier Three

Many will ache at my dropping Walker Buehler here instead of the second tier, but the 26-year-old continues to be “managed” by LA instead of consistently working deep into games. This isn’t to say Buehler isn’t worth a high pick -- he’s still No. 11 on my board! -- but it’s difficult to say the man was unlucky regarding wins when he’s regularly pulled in the fifth or sixth inning. Also, he had a .198 BABIP in 36 ⅔ IP last year and while he’s good, don’t latch onto the resulting 0.95 WHIP that closely. A similar precaution goes to Kenta Maeda, who posted a .208 BABIP and 0.75 WHIP. Once again: Still very good, just not insanely good.

There’s plenty to pick apart but I want to hone in on Jack Flaherty. Is he going to lose Yadier Molina behind the dish? More importantly, can Flaherty get back to locating his fastball up in the zone? Fangraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman had a great piece here that included the frequency that pitchers threw their heat up in the zone and found that Flaherty checked in at 5% after posting 11% in ‘19. He points out the likely connection to three-year lows in the 28.8% K rate, 1.34 HR/9 and .281 BABIP, as well as give on his 9.4% walk rate. I have faith it’s easily repairable but it should be observable in Spring Training.

Tier Four

I have to admit that I expected Hyun-Jin Ryu to flop in the AL East but he crushed it. I still don’t want to bet on him long-term but the defense behind him improves with Vladito shifting to 1B and a potential shift to the corner outfield for Randal Grichuk.

Corbin Burnes will almost surely be overdrafted in 2021 after breaking out in the shortened 2020 season. I respect his arsenal and love the poise shown after early command woes capped his upside. He walked three batters in four of his first five outings and only worked deeper than five innings once in that span.

But then he picked apart a soft schedule that included two Pittsburgh matchups, Detroit, and Kansas City to the tune of a 1.63 ERA with four wins and a 59/10 K/BB ratio in 38 ⅔ IP across his final seven starts. And then there's the inning question that we'll have to ask of so many arms.

Corbin Burnes's inning workload:

145 to 116 to 71 to 59

So 45 to 50 next year? I know more is expected but it's tough to expect more than 120.

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) December 1, 2020

Tier Five

Zack Greinke and some youngsters reside here, with Framber Valdez, Dylan Bundy, and Sixto Sanchez drawing the most buzz. The dream is walking away from the draft with two of those three emerging arms, but helium and hype will surely keep their names atop many a queue.

Chris Paddack faltered after a hot rookie campaign, with many blaming his introduction of a cutter on throwing off his approach. Then there’s Frankie Montas, who carried high hopes and started well before injury waylaid his year. After holding opponents to just four runs in his first four starts combined, he was torched for 9 ER in 1 ⅔ IP to ignite a horrid six-start stretch where he should’ve just been on the injured list. Then he reminds us of his ceiling with 13 strikeouts over six shutout frames in his final start of 2020 -- go figure.

Tier Six

Don’t forget about David Price, who returns to LA after opting out for the 2020 season. He’ll be 35 years old and recently saw his fastball fall to 92 mph in 2018-19 from the usual 94 mph, so will he emphasize the cutter and changeup even more? Probably so, and we’ll hope that he enjoys a steady diet of Ws on a strong Dodger team much like his 16-win 2018 season. Fellow Dodger Julio Urías will need to improve his 20.1% strikeout rate, as the 2.5 K/BB ratio was only 83rd among 126 SP with at least 30 frames in ‘20.

I appear far lower than the public regarding Ian Anderson while standing much higher on Aaron Civale. The early NFBC Draft Champions leagues have seen Anderson go as the 27th pitcher whereas Civale is the 53rd arm (do note those are overall pitchers, not just SP). Anderson is wildly talented but still had a 10.1% walk rate after posting rates between 10-15% in the minor leagues. 

Tier Seven

This is the majority of the affectionately-dubbed “glut” as Paul Sporer would say. You can go in several directions here and I won’t take issue with most of them. Do you seek out the rehabbing veterans in Corey Kluber and Chris Sale? It’s been rumored that the BoSox are looking into signing Kluber, but the latest rumor links Kluber to the Yankees (and I'd love that).

“2 Cy Young Award-winning right-hander Corey Kluber is very close to signing with the New York Yankees, according to sources. Direct sources from the team told @ConLasBasesFull that the Yankees have prepared to make an offer to him in the next few hours.” https://t.co/5FCr404SeU

— Tom Smith (@tom_smith717) December 3, 2020

Do you load up on arms coming off injured-affected years in Charlie Morton and Mike Soroka? What about the kids? You can mix in Dustin May, Triston McKenzie, Cristian Javier, and Tony Gonsolin as well. I worry that many of that last mix will go higher than I'm willing to go, especially May and McKenzie. May's social media pop via PitchingNinja and a wicked two-seamer that deserves plenty of shine is louder than his production thus far, while McKenzie had one excellent month that will vault him up the draft boards.

Tier Eight

I’m surprised to see that the pitcher being drafted highest here among early NFBC leagues is Brady Singer, he of the 4.06 ERA and modest 23.2% strikeout rate. I loved rostering him down the stretch after he survived a run of bad-luck matchups that brought three straight games against the Bomba Squad (MIN) followed by back-to-back starts against the White Sox. He exhaled with only four runs allowed over his final four starts, going 3-1 with a 25/8 K/BB ratio in 27 IP. While encouraging, the Twins and White Sox aren’t going anywhere and remain threatening opponents.

Another large batch of arms that missed the entirety (or most) of 2020 can be found strewn about, with Jameson Taillon, Michael Kopech, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shohei Ohtani, and Marcus Stroman reporting for duty. I expect to walk away from drafts with plenty of Kopech and Stroman in particular, with high hopes for Kopech's development with Yasmani Grandal behind the dish.

Tier Nine

Elieser Hernandez suffered a lat injury that further shortened his 2020, but his six starts offer some hope for the 25-year-old righty. His 27.4% K-BB% was eighth out of 165 SPs with at least 20 IP in 2020, sitting with Dinelson Lamet (27.3%) thanks to added life on his fastball and a sharp slider. He laid off his change, going from 11.4% in ‘19 to just 5.7% in ‘20. The heavier fastball diet led to five HRs in just 25 ⅔ IP and a career 1.87 HR/9 is scary, but he’s trending up.

Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller has taken quite the windy path to the bigs and 2020 continued that trend. After a spicy 28.6% strikeout rate was tied to a gaudy .475 BABIP in 48 IP two seasons ago, he lost 10 percentage points on the K’s but enjoyed a .104 BABIP through 21 ⅔ IP in 2020. He didn’t give up a hit in his last two starts, but walked 10 in those 11 innings and wound up with more free passes (18) than punchouts (16) in the short year. Can he pump up the fastball again?

I’d rather take a chance on Boston’s Tanner Houck, aka the right-handed Chris Sale. The walks might just be insurmountable in the end, but he attacks hitters with a potent fastball-slider combo. People will surely read too much into the 0.53 ERA/0.88 WHIP that’ll display in draft rooms, but that’s what 17 IP can do. He still had a 14.3% walk rate that mirrored his minor-league experiences (usually 9-12%), but the .161 BABIP helps immensely. I like some of the tools but he’s still a dangerous dude.

Chris Sale vs. lefty Tanner Houck. pic.twitter.com/i46P14AtDZ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2020

Tier 10

We’ve got two Tigers looking to get back in our good graces here. Matthew Boyd broke many hearts last year by throwing meatball heaters, even seeing his slider get cracked often. Hitters slugged .583 off the slider in ‘20, up from .339 in ‘19 alongside the ~100-point jump on fastballs. It’s no surprise we saw a career-high 37% hard-hit rate per Statcast. His 2019 showed enough where we can’t bail, this isn’t a Robbie Ray meltdown scenario.

Then there’s Spencer Turnbull, who only went deeper than six innings once in his 11 starts. His first three outings of 2020 were encouraging, yielding two wins with only four runs allowed and a season-high eight K’s in his first start. He then averaged four walks per start in the coming month and struggled with consistency. With less than a strikeout per inning, we couldn’t tolerate that and hopes must be modest as he enters his age-28 season.

Let’s just stick with Detroit and mention Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. Mize remains the higher-touted prospect but Skubal looked more MLB-ready in 2020. Both had about 30 innings of work but Skubal’s 1.22 WHIP easily beat Mize’s 1.48 mark, while the 19.4% K-BB rate nearly doubled Mize’s 9.8%. Recall Skubal’s insane 48.2% strikeout rate from Double-A in ‘19 (only 42 ⅓ IP) and let’s see if a full offseason can sharpen the young talent here.

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