Nick Mariano's Early 2021 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings

I think most of us would agree that looking forward to 2021 is a good idea. For me, that means immersing myself in the upcoming baseball season. While there's no guarantee COVID-19 won't affect the '21 season, I will approach ranks as if a traditional 162-game season is coming. Join me for my position-by-position ranking series for the 2021 fantasy baseball season.

How much weight do we give 2020? How well can you erase notions such as the East, Central, and West divisions only playing each other? How about the DH in the National League. For now, I'm operating under the assumption of no NL DH moving forward. And it's clear that many familiar names may be frozen out of fair contracts as owners cry about lost revenue from the limited 2020 season.

We've gone across the infield so far, talking about catchers, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop so far, so now we'll hit the outfield. I will also include several DH/Utility types here. Let's dig into the deep outfield ranks as we prepare for what we hope will be a refreshing 2021 season.

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Early 2021 Outfield Rankings - 5x5 Mixed Leagues

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. Be sure to follow his updated rankings all season long!

Rank	Tier	Player	Position
1	1	Ronald Acuna Jr.	OF
2	1	Mookie Betts	OF
3	1	Juan Soto	OF
4	1	Mike Trout	OF
5	2	Christian Yelich	OF
6	2	Cody Bellinger	1B/OF
7	2	Bryce Harper	OF
8	3	Kyle Tucker	OF
9	3	Luis Robert	OF
10	3	Eloy Jimenez	OF
11	3	Whit Merrifield	2B/OF
12	3	Marcell Ozuna	OF
13	3	Starling Marte	OF
14	3	Aaron Judge	OF
15	3	George Springer	OF
16	4	Randy Arozarena	OF
17	4	Cavan Biggio	2B/3B/OF
18	4	Trent Grisham	OF
19	4	Teoscar Hernandez	OF
20	4	Nelson Cruz	DH
21	4	Brandon Lowe	2B/OF
22	4	Nick Castellanos	OF
24	4	Yordan Alvarez	OF
23	5	Michael Conforto	OF
25	5	Austin Meadows	OF
26	5	J.D. Martinez	OF
27	5	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	OF
28	5	Dominic Smith	1B/OF
29	5	Kyle Lewis	OF
30	5	Jeff McNeil	2B/3B/OF
31	5	Giancarlo Stanton	DH
32	5	Charlie Blackmon	OF
33	5	Tommy Pham	OF
34	5	Dylan Moore	2B/OF
35	5	Byron Buxton	OF
36	5	Mike Yastrzemski	OF
37	5	Eddie Rosario	OF
38	5	Alex Verdugo	OF
39	6	Wil Myers	OF
40	6	Ryan Mountcastle	1B/OF
41	6	Dylan Carlson	OF
42	6	Franmil Reyes	DH
43	6	Tommy Edman	2B/3B/SS/OF
44	6	Ramon Laureano	OF
45	6	Jorge Soler	OF
46	6	Michael Brantley	OF
47	6	Ian Happ	OF
48	6	Victor Robles	OF
49	6	Anthony Santander	OF
50	6	Nick Solak	2B/OF
51	6	Clint Frazier	OF
52	6	Daulton Varsho	C/OF
53	6	Joey Gallo	OF
54	6	Max Kepler	OF
55	6	Kyle Schwarber	OF
56	6	Jarred Kelenic	OF
57	6	Randal Grichuk	OF
58	7	Leody Taveras	OF
59	7	Victor Reyes	OF
60	7	Jurickson Profar	2B/OF
61	7	Trey Mancini	1B/OF
62	7	Andrew McCutchen	OF
63	7	J.D. Davis	3B/OF
64	7	Jesse Winker	OF
65	7	AJ Pollock	OF
66	7	Austin Hays	OF
67	7	Andrew Benintendi	OF
68	7	Chris Taylor	2B/SS/OF
69	7	Hunter Dozier	1B/OF
70	7	Lorenzo Cain	OF
71	7	Shohei Ohtani	DH/SP
72	7	Jon Berti	2B/OF
73	7	Nick Senzel	OF
74	7	Brandon Nimmo	OF
75	7	Garrett Hampson	2B/SS/OF
76	7	Manuel Margot	OF
77	8	Scott Kingery	2B/OF
78	8	Kole Calhoun	OF
79	8	Yasiel Puig	OF
80	8	Mark Canha	OF
81	8	David Peralta	OF
82	8	Aaron Hicks	OF
83	8	Mitch Haniger	OF
84	8	Raimel Tapia	OF
85	8	Alex Kirilloff	OF
86	8	Justin Upton	OF
87	8	David Dahl	OF
88	8	Willie Calhoun	OF
89	8	Bryan Reynolds	OF
90	8	Austin Slater	OF
91	8	Kevin Pillar	OF
92	8	Jo Adell	OF
93	8	Cedric Mullins	OF
94	8	Alex Dickerson	OF
95	8	Adam Eaton	OF
96	8	Corey Dickerson	OF
97	8	Avisail Garcia	OF
98	8	Shogo Akiyama	OF
99	8	Franchy Cordero	OF
100	8	Josh Naylor	OF
101	8	Oscar Mercado	OF
102	9	Adam Duvall	OF
103	9	Cristian Pache	OF
104	9	Jackie Bradley Jr.	OF
105	9	Michael Chavis	1B/2B/OF
106	9	JaCoby Jones	OF
107	9	Joc Pederson	OF
108	9	Sam Hilliard	OF
109	9	Robbie Grossman	OF
110	9	Gregory Polanco	OF
111	9	Miguel Andujar	3B/OF
112	9	Roman Quinn	OF
113	9	Andrew Stevenson	OF
114	9	Jason Heyward	OF
115	9	Kevin Kiermaier	OF
116	9	Miguel Cabrera	DH
117	9	Jared Oliva	OF
118	9	Spencer Torkelson	1B/OF
119	9	Shin-Soo Choo	OF
120	9	Edward Olivares	OF
121	9	Stephen Piscotty	OF
122	10	Tyler O'Neill	OF
123	10	Marwin Gonzalez	1B/2B/3B/OF
124	10	Hunter Renfroe	OF
125	10	Harrison Bader	OF
126	10	Yoshi Tsutsugo	3B/OF
127	10	Nomar Mazara	OF
128	10	Khris Davis	DH
129	10	DJ Stewart	OF
130	10	Myles Straw	OF
131	10	Mike Tauchman	OF
132	10	Michael A. Taylor	OF
133	10	Julio Rodriguez	OF
134	10	Monte Harrison	OF
135	10	Ian Desmond	OF
136	10	Tim Locastro	OF
137	10	Lewis Brinson	OF
138	10	Kike Hernandez	2B/OF
139	10	Aristides Aquino	OF
140	10	Ryan Braun	OF
141	10	Cedric Mullins II	OF
142	10	Edwin Encarnacion	DH
143	10	Seth Beer	DH
144	10	Sam Haggerty	OF
145	10	Brett Gardner	OF
146	10	Josh Reddick	OF
147	10	Jake Fraley	OF
148	10	Brandon Marsh	OF
149	10	Drew Waters	OF
150	10	Magneuris Sierra	OF
151	10	Jarren Duran	OF
152	10	Mallex Smith	OF
153	10	Yairo Munoz	OF
154	10	Josh Lowe	OF
155	10	Taylor Trammell	OF
156	10	Dexter Fowler	OF
157	10	Daz Cameron	OF
158	10	Lane Thomas	OF
159	10	Adam Haseley	OF
160	10	Jose Marmolejos	OF
161	10	Brian Goodwin	OF
162	10	Tyler Naquin	OF
163	10	Taylor Ward	OF
164	10	Yoenis Cespedes	OF
165	10	Delino DeShields	OF
166	10	Yusniel Diaz	OF

 

Tier One

Are we back to shipping Mookie Betts as No. 1 over Mike Trout? Is Trout even No. 2 or 3 then? Because last year’s No. 1 hype in Ronald Acuna Jr. and fellow NL East youngster Juan Soto are charging towards the top. I can’t see any of them disappointing but I’m still taking Trout if given the chance. Even if the steals are tailing off, the consistency otherwise is just too clean.

I fear people will overinvest in Betts having only seen him with a DH in the NL -- that pitcher slot ninth for a leadoff hitter will burn. While I can’t put Soto No. 1 just yet, I have scooped many of his (undervalued) rookie cards this offseason.

Juan Soto not only hit .351 this season. He finishes with a .490 on-base percentage, .695 slugging percentage and 1.185 OPS. Those are the highest OBP, SLG and OPS for any major leaguer with at least 195 plate appearances since Barry Bonds in 2004.

— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) September 27, 2020

 

Tier Two

All three of these players are MVP-caliber and could easily finish as the No. 1 OF. Harper won the NL MVP in 2015, Bellinger won in 2019, but many thought Yelich would’ve taken that 2019 award had he not been injured down the stretch. Harper was electric in ‘20, hitting 13 homers with eight steals and a .962 OPS to yield generous profits for those who selected him in the second or third rounds. But Bellinger and Yelich faltered throughout the season, with 12 homers each covering up low averages and cold streaks.

Personally, I don't extract much value out of debating these top classes that harshly. It seems to always boil down to your risk tolerance regarding the dislocated shoulder/tweaked swing of Belly or the down year for Yelich. One note regarding Yelich that requires early monitoring in 2021 will be his aggression. He saw his overall swing rate fall from 45.1% in '19 to 34.8% across 2020, but that selective nature came with worse contact. Instead of picking his spots, his overall contact rate tumbled from 2019's 73.3% to a career-low 68.5%. I hope this corrects itself but he's "last" of this still-stellar tier as a result.

 

Tier Three

This is where the fun begins. Myself and the industry certainly think highly of Eloy Jiménez hitting in the middle of an emerging juggernaut. You’ll get 30-plus homers, perhaps 40, and a probable 100-plus RBI with an average that can kiss .300, but zero with steals. It’s the J.D. Martinez experience, essentially. I’m perfectly fine with that in my top-10, aren’t you? Let's just get that 28.5% fly-ball rate from '20 going back in the direction of 33.9% from 2019.

Luis Robert set the game on fire with hits in 11 of his first 12 games and a .298/.348/.612 slash with 10 homers and four steals through Aug. 31, a 33-game span. But the 30.8% strikeout rate in that window portended September struggles. His 23 games from Sept. 1 had a 34% K rate with one homer and a .136 average, but at least five steals helped some folks out. The skills are undeniable but can you accept such volatility in the early rounds? I’d rather build on bedrock and look for risky upside later on but the ceiling must be respected.

If you need a well-rounded player with speed to offer then Starling Marte, Whit Merrifield, and Kyle Tucker check those boxes. Tucker carries the most upside and intrigue while the other two are established veterans. You’ll get some Dusty Baker shenanigans but Tucker should hold onto everyday play even with Yordan Alvarez in the fold, giving him a chance to build on the 40/40 skills he showed in the minors.

Where do you accept the injury risk of Aaron Judge? I’m not a huge believer in injury-prone individuals but there’s no doubting that his big frame has had difficulty staying on the field. But Yankee Stadium’s potential is clear for such a powerful man who, in my mind, is the 2017 AL MVP. Speaking of the cheating Astros, I’ll still take George Springer in the top-15 no matter where he signs. He’s been too good as a leadoff hitter to have that taken from him and those extra plate appearances stack up nicely.

What do we expect from Marcell Ozuna in 2021? He destroyed the ball in 2020, logging a .338/.431/.636 slash with 18 homers in 267 PAs (60 games). His .391 BABIP was the fourth-highest out of 142 qualified batters, a welcome sight after last year’s career-low .257 BABIP (career .357). That’s not quite how regression is meant to work but we’ll take it. I’ve got him as a .280 hitter for 2021, and he should get paid by whoever signs him thanks to no qualifying offer being attached to him. A healthy shoulder led to a fantastic campaign and the only reason he’s this low for me is uncertainty on the landing spot.

 

Tier Four

What do you do with the postseason breakout, Randy Arozarena? I’m sure others will jump the gun before I get a chance to draft him, especially with Steamer’s 25-homer, 21-steal projection flying around. He’s not a sudden stud, as he cracked 12 homers with nine steals and a .358/.435/.593 slash through 283 PAs (64 games) at Triple-A for St. Louis. I think he's good but these are not the price points where I'm typically buying.

He joins Luke Voit as another player to break out after being buried and misused in STL. But now we're dealing with potential legal action surrounding a domestic issue where he was arrested in Mexico. We should have time to let more light shine on that, but the MLB's joint domestic violence policy with the players' association will have its say. For the record, his teammate Austin Meadows gets a pass for general performance thanks to the COVID-19 diagnosis but I can’t ignore his being platooned away from southpaws.

There’s a different kind of risk in Nick Castellanos, as he’s been a plus batting average for years until 2020’s short season. Moving to Great American Ballpark is typically a boon for hitters, yet Casty’s .257 BABIP was well off his .329 career mark as his .225/.298/.486 slash sunk many fantasy teams. He still cracked 14 homers in just 60 games with equal home and away output so I’m still buying for 2021.

Then there are two breakouts in Trent Grisham and Teoscar Hernandez to round out the tier, with both supplying power and speed on upstart offenses in hitter-friendly environments. Hernandez’s age-27 campaign yielded 16 homers and six steals, making him just one of five hitters to reach both marks in 2020 despite playing only 50 games. The others were Jose Ramirez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Mookie Betts, and Manny Machado -- good company. Even if the average drops drop towards .260 (.348 BABIP vs. 310 career) you’ll take the category juice, but an elevated 25.8% line-drive rate could mean long-term success.

And I will happily “overdraft” Nelson Cruz until he retires, with his DH/UT-only status clouding vision on his incredible bat. He is awaiting a decision on the universal DH factor before signing, but the Twins have signaled that re-signing him as a priority.

Source: Free agent Nelson Cruz is unlikely to sign until there is clarity on whether #MLB will have a universal DH in 2021; that change would need to be collectively bargained. Cruz, 40, has hit the 5th most HR in MLB over the last 2 years. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 19, 2020

Aging catches up to everybody but hitting 16 homers with a .303/.397/.595 slash line over 214 PAs doesn’t have me running away. And while Yordan Alvarez is far younger and in the same spot DH-wise, I have Yordan leading off the fourth tier instead due to the durability concerns. The same goes for Giancarlo Stanton.

 

Tier Five

I’m lower than some on Michael Conforto but drafters are bound to overweigh the .322 batting average from 2020. He only hit nine homers and delivered his highest value in points leagues rather than roto, with a walk rate of 10% or higher in five straight seasons now. I appreciate making constant contact but I prefer home-run power or speed to be the elite tool within my top-25, rather than the stellar line-drive swing he showed here. Seriously, the 30.3% LD rate was spectacular.

Will you take the leap on fifth-place-vote-getter in the AL MVP race with Alex Verdugo? He warmed up to Boston by hitting .308 with six homers and four steals in 53 games, hitting .327 at home and .290 on the road. He’s a great hitter with speed to offer in a stellar offensive environment, making him a solid five-category buy.

 

Tier Six

If the Yankees re-sign Brett Gardner then Clint Frazier’s range of outcomes takes a hit, and I expect Gardy will return, but opportunities also arise if/when Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton get dinged up. Frazier is a .267 hitter these past two years, with notable plate discipline strides in 2020. His 15.6% walk rate and a 2.5 percentage point dip in swinging-strike rate were encouraging, and he did so without losing the power.

His .244 ISO and 26.7% HR/FB rate tied to 15 extra-base hits (8 HR, 2 2B, 1 3B) in just 39 games (160 PAs) -- making for a 30-homer pace that’s very believable in that park. He had a 1.068 OPS and .352 ISO at Yankee Stadium, which fell to .711 and .117, respectively, on the road. The small sample size warps that but Frazier’s stick swinging at such a potent park is heartwarming. He’s got more upside than teammate Aaron Hicks at this point, and his improved defense gives him a better shot at making waves in 2021.

2021 will be a big year for Clint Frazier.@JackCurryYES & @flash17yes with more pic.twitter.com/N1LAveFLgn

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) November 24, 2020

 

Tier Seven

You can go for established veterans such as A.J. Pollock and Kole Calhoun, who both hit 16 homers in the short season, but you’re likely bidding against others who will wholly extrapolate that pace for a full year. I’d rather speculate on those with strong skills but poor results in this tier, such as Dylan Carlson, Andrew Benintendi, or Justin Upton. Then there’s Jarred Kelenic, a man poised to follow up Kyle Lewis’ AL RoY campaign with one of his own. And who will give Yasiel Puig’s power-speed combo a home?

Then there’s Cincinnati’s Nick Senzel, who remains an unknown because he keeps missing time. Within three weeks of the 2020 season, he was placed on the injured list due to illness. He would return after a month and get just two hits in nine games following the IL stint, resulting in a poor .186/.247/.357 slash line. But the .244/.327/.489 slash with two homers and two steals through 53 PAs prior to the injured list looks better and is worth a look for 2021.

 

Tiers 8-10

Most don’t dig this deep with high hopes, so let’s talk about players who I believe have a reasonable chance at leaping into the top-50 for 2022.

Willie Calhoun was a top-50 OF heading into 2020 before a pitch to the jaw ruined his outlook and clearly affected his comfort in the batter’s box. Perhaps the offseason will allow him to regain that edge at the dish but I can’t count on that until we see it. His teammate Leody Taveras could blossom out of the leadoff spot as well, rocking 30-steal wheels with double-digit pop to boot (hence his place in Tier Seven)

Another health question mark lies in Seattle’s Mitch Haniger, who missed most of 2019 and all of 2020. But his last 220 games have yielded 41 homers and 12 steals, a healthy tally worth targeting late. He’s slated to be Seattle’s starting right fielder in 2021 and even 125 games in ‘21 would be valuable here.

Some other youngsters of interest will be Miami's Monte Harrison and Minnesota's Alex Kirilloff, as well as whether Colorado gives any of Raimel Tapia, Sam Hilliard, or Ian Desmond consistent PT at Coors. When you get down here then you're either looking for pure ceiling in draft-and-hold formats or likelihood of solid playing time in deeper formats, such as AL- or NL-only leagues.

While I’m here for buy-low candidates, I’m going to give Jo Adell a full year to get his bat MLB-ready before I spend up for him. Most draft boards have him within the top-50 but he appeared so overmatched in 2020. A full offseason should help and ideally, they’ve identified clear problem areas to address for the top prospect, but he didn’t even hit above the Mendoza line on fastballs. If you can’t handle MLB heat then success odds remain long.

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