Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Let's basketball! Or, let's daily fantasy basketball, rather, and most importantly - end up with a little more cash in our FanDuel accounts than we started the day with. Tonight, we have a 10 game slate on deck that is heavy with East coast flavor. In that, I mean the majority of the games are early tonight, with just three of the 10 games tipping at 9:30 pm EDT or later.
Before we get into the player breakdowns, I like to offer up some Vegas lines (odds, spreads, overs, etc) that could be of interest when you're building your teams - especially for those of you who like to play tournaments and/or deploy a stack or three. From a projected point total perspective, there isn't a lot to drool over. Two games in particular stick out, and they are the Thunder at Magic (217.5) and the Wizards at Clippers (219.5). The nice thing about both of these games is that they feature spreads of six points or less. If I were to lean one way for tournament roster construction, however, I'd lean towards Wizards at Clippers as I think their players will be less owned and there are more dynamic offensive player options to stack. Strictly from a stacking perspective, the Hawks at 76ers is enticing as well, seeing as the spread is just one point and many of the 76ers players projected to play more than 30 minutes are very cheap tonight.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily NBA lineup picks for FanDuel on 3/29/17. The picks will range from some of the elite players, to mid-priced options, and value plays.
Let's get to it, shall we?
FanDuel DFS Guards
I'm going to kick this off by saying player selection, for me at least, was extremely difficult today. Not only are minutes getting harder to project, but some veterans are on soft limits and others have figuratively packed it in for the season. My gut is to lean on players that still have something to play for - like those fighting for a playoff seed or an MVP, for instance.
Russell Westbrook - PG, at ORL ($13,100)
A steep price to pay? Sure, but it's tough to find this sort of safety net anywhere else this evening. It's a night where many stars just happen to be off and many others have little to play for, and I'd hate to roster anyone that wont see at least 20 minutes of floor time. Despite this price tag, Westbrook has been surpassing value lately. In fact, he's done it with relative ease, surpassing value in seven of his last 10 games, by an average of more than five FanDuel points per night. The reason I like him tonight is for his high floor, as I alluded to above, and the fact that I think you'll need Russell in both cash and tournament games tonight to place. He's been averaging more than 1.6 fantasy points per minute - an astonishing number, by all accounts - and he's projected for 36 minutes tonight with a Usage rate above 35. Additionally, the 76ers are a bottom five defensive team (of those in action tonight) against opposing point guards.
Also Consider: Dennis Schroder - PG, at PHI ($7,200)
Josh Richardson - SG, at NYK ($4,600)
Since I did so much damage to your remaining salary with my Westbrook suggestion, I'll hit you with a little value at the two-guard spot in Josh Richardson. This position is one I often like to go value in, and see the matchups tonight, it's a theme I'll continue with. Speaking of themes, this also fits my idea of using players who have something left to fight for - like Richardson and his Heat teammates, who are battling for the 8th seed in the East region. Over the past three games, Richardson has seen a huge minutes increase and has had a bigger role in the offense. In that stretch, he's played a minimum of 33 minutes and has had double digit shot attempts in each. I expect that trend to continue, and tonight, he gets a matchup with the lowly Knicks, they who are allowing more points to opposing shooting guards than any other team in action Wednesday night.
Also Consider: Victor Oladipo - SG, at ORL ($6,000)
FanDuel DFS Forwards
Taurean Prince - SF, at PHI ($3,800)
Taurean Prince is my favorite value of the evening. He gets a nice draw with the 76ers, who happen to be pretty soft on the interior, and he's also starting (or recently has been) while playing at least 30 minutes in four of the Hawks' last six games - including 38 and 35 minute totals in their two most recent games. Prince has not only seen a minutes increase, but as the Hawks have been playing around with their lineups and giving their younger players increased roles, he's been more involved in the offense. In the past two nights, he's put up a total of 23 shots and grabbed six boards in each. On top of that, he's equipped to hit and surpass value with the handful of steals and blocks he's been adding up each night. While their matchups aren't the prettiest, if you're playing tournaments, I'd pair Prince and his somewhat solid floor with a player who has a very high ceiling, like Paul George for instance (yes, I realize the matchup with Memphis isn't ideal, but he's been on fire and carrying this Pacers squad).
Also Consider: Paul George - SF, at MEM ($,8600)
Kristaps Porzingis - PF, vs MIA ($7,200)
Who has the Carmelo minutes restriction most benefited? It's hard to definitely say, but Kristaps has certainly seen an increase in opportunity. For the season, Porzingis held an impressive Usage rate of around 23, and since Carmelo's departure, he's seen that number rise more than two digits. Tonight, he doesn't have the most beautiful matchup on paper, seeing as the Heat are solid defensively 3-5, but they are on the back-end of a back-to-back and I'm also foreseeing the Knicks being heavily reliant on Porzingis' offensive abilities this evening. On a night where not a lot of players and matchups jump off the table, I'll roll the dice with Porzingis, seeing as he has a higher ceiling than nearly all of his counterparts at the four position.
Also Consider: Ersan Ilyasova - PF, at PHI ($4,800)
FanDuel DFS Centers
Dwight Howard - C, at PHI ($7,200)
Rostering Howard always makes me a little queasy, but taking a look at his recent numbers gives me confidence he can continue this positive upswing he's currently riding. Over the last 10 games, he's been a monster, surpassing value eight times - including five of his last five. In that stretch, he's outperformed his price implied value by an average of more than five points a night. Curiously, his price has only climbed $100, and as such, he's in good position to push past is against Philadelphia. Speaking of the 76ers, they happen to be extremely soft in the middle, so I expect Howard to get involved offensively and be very active on the glass. For the season, Howard has a pretty nice PER at 21 and his fantasy point per minute production - 1.1 - is fairly strong as well.
Also Consider: Willy Hernangomez - C, vs MIA ($5,100)
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