RADIO
Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - HR/FB% Analysis for Week 8
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Exit Velocity Analysis for Week 8
Exit velocity is all the rage these days, but how meaningful is it really? It depends. A high exit velocity is worthless if it's smashed into the ground right at a defender. Increasing the miles per hour rate on line drives and fly balls typically result in better outcomes and are more predictive of power.... Read More
Blast Off: Which Batters Are Hitting the Most Impactful Barrels?
Last week I read a great article by John LaRue breaking down Alex Chamberlain's offensive stat known as Blast Rate. As John pointed out, Alex took the barrel stat we know and love and split it into a subset known as "Weak Barrels" and "Blasts." This may seem like a knit-picky exercise to some, but... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xwOBA Analysis for Week 7
With many hitters finally passing the 100-plate appearance threshold for 2021, we can begin to dig into expected statistics to see who is underperforming or overachieving. A good place to start is xwOBA, or expected weighted on-base average. For those unfamiliar with the term, BaseballSavant describes it thusly: "xwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch... Read More
Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - xSLG Analysis for Week 7
Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. This week I will dive into a metric that utilizes exit velocity and launch angle (two metrics we have... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Hard-Hit Rate Analysis for Week 6
We're officially one month into the season so more statistics will begin to become "sticky." One of the chief contact quality metrics that can be predictive of power is hard-hit rate. As always, we'll skip the obvious names like Mike Trout and Aaron Judge in order to look at unexpected leaders, as well as players... Read More
Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - SIERA Analysis for Week 6
Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. Now roughly a month into the season, we are starting to gather a decent sample of data for... Read More
Early Plate Discipline Improvers
Early season data is never very reliable. When you are still in the first month of the season, one game can have a big impact on a player's stat line in most categories. That makes it somewhat foolish to look at the data until you at least get a month or so of games out... Read More
Bad Luck Hitters by Batted Ball Metrics
Last week, we went into some detail here about how Statcast classifies batted balls and what implications those classifications have. In this post, I want to use some of that knowledge to look into luck factors and find some potential buy-low and sell-high hitters. As we are about to turn the page to May, we... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Contact Rate Analysis for Week 5
Last week, we examined whiff rate risers and fallers so it's time to investigate the opposite side of the coin with contact rate. Many metrics are yet to warrant deep examination for 2021 since teams are approximately 20 games into the season. Contact rate takes about 100 plate appearances to begin stabilizing. While it is... Read More
Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Launch Angle Analysis for Week 5
Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. Last week I took a look at exit velocity, and this week I will look into a stat... Read More
Digging Deeper: Hitter Batted Ball Analysis
The word "barrel" entered the fantasy baseball lexicon in 2015 and has quickly become one of the most often-referenced statistics to describe hitter performance. You will see barrels, barrel rate, and barrels per plate appearance talked about all over websites like this fine one. This is for good reason. Prior to the onset of Statcast, we... Read More
Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Whiff Rate for Week 4
We're back in the swing of things, literally, with a closer look at hitters who are making quality contact and those who aren't. This week, our Statcast focus is Whiff Rate entering Week 4 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Whiffs are simply calculated as the number of swings and misses divided by the total... Read More
Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Exit Velocity for Week 4
Welcome to the first edition of Statcast pitchers analysis this season! I covered this series two seasons ago and am very excited to be back at the helm. Statcast provides a ton of interesting and insightful advanced metrics that we can use to predict future fantasy performance. Each week I will select one of these... Read More
Statcast Hitter Leaderboard: Maximum Exit Velocity
Although we technically got Statcast data as soon as the first pitch of the 2021 season was thrown, any good sabermetrician knows that sample size matters. It's still quite early in the season but we can't wait to start digging into the stats, so let's start this year's iteration of the Statcast Hitter Leaderboard by... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher Statcast
Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is evidence... Read More
An Introduction to Advanced Stats for Fantasy Baseball Managers
Hello, fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. Over the next two months, this series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use... Read More
2020 Breakout Outfielders Who'll Keep Improving
With hitters dealing with the coronavirus pandemic and related changes to the MLB season, it’s somewhat surprising that breakouts were unexceptional (if high) in their number. After 45 qualified batters improved their wOBA by at least 0.20 points between 2018 and 2019, 54 hitters managed to do so between 2019 and 2020. That’s not a... Read More
Power Sleepers - Noteworthy 2020 Barrel Leaders
As we've continued to progress in the MLB offseason, I've been looking at barrel rates from 2020 in the hopes of finding players whose breakouts during the shortened season were real or those who may still have breakouts looming. As I've mentioned previously, I'm a firm believer that finding the barrel regularly is an incredibly... Read More
Launch Angle Analysis - Potential HR Risers
With the onset of Statcast data, we can now better predict which hitters may be due for a power surge. Before recent years, we only had things like hard-hit rate and home runs per fly ball ratios to look to as predictors of future changes in home run rates. Now that we have launch angle,... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher BABIP
While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy managers should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some... Read More
Kings of Candy: Sweet-Spot% Risers
While the 2020 season may not have given us much of a sample to evaluate outcomes (home runs, doubles, flyouts, etc.), the core events of exit velocity and launch angle stabilize more quickly and can be stickier than combination statistics like ISO or BB%. Two of our FSWA Writer-of-the-Year Finalists, Eric Samulski and Nicklaus Gaut,... Read More
Digging Into BB% Leaders - Cavan Biggio
When looking at a player’s stats, what we really want to know is how skilled he is, not necessarily just how a particular year happened to pan out. An output stat like walks can give us some meaningful information, but there is a lot more going on that might help us better understand how and... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: HR/FB
Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Batting average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most fantasy managers find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI.... Read More
Failure to Launch: Hitters With Falling Launch Angles
Launch angle is important. There is a sweet spot for launch angles and the hitters that hit the highest shares of their batted balls in those angles will have more success than the rest of the league. The reverse is also true. If you are consistently hitting the ball straight in the air or directly into... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Batter BABIP
The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. Many know... Read More
Digging Into K% Leaders - Christian Yelich
As we discussed in Part 1 focusing on Ketel Marte, it can sometimes be tough to know which way to go with it. There are the very basic stats: batting average, runs batted in, home runs, and maybe on-base percentage, but we know they are not always the most useful in player analyses even if... Read More
Digging Into K% Leaders - Ketel Marte
There are so many metrics that exist to evaluate player performance, it can sometimes be tough to know which way to go with it. There are the very basic stats we all grew up with: batting average, runs batted in, home runs, and maybe on-base percentage. We also know that they are not the most... Read More
Statcast Review - Noteworthy xBA/xSLG Hitting Leaders
Thanks to its abbreviated schedule, the 2020 MLB season resulted in some unusual outcomes. Michael Conforto posted the highest full-season BABIP since Ty Cobb in 1913, Luke Voit was on pace for 60 home runs, and Robbie Ray walked a ridiculous 18% of the batters he faced. xStats were not immune to that weirdness, xBA... Read More
MLB's Best Pitches by the Numbers
One of the most-often used algorithms in the data science world is called clustering. Clustering is defined, by Wikipedia, as: grouping a set of objects in such a way that objects in the same group (called a cluster) are more similar (in some sense) to each other than to those in other groups (clusters) In baseball... Read More
