Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 7: FIP & xFIP
The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 6: Lineup Slot & Counting Stats
To this point, this series has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate HRs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team dependent stats, and are unhelpful... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 5: Pull%
Earlier in my series on using sabermetrics for fantasy baseball, we saw that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 4: Plate Discipline
No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn, Chris Carter, and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff... Read More
Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 3: Batted Ball Distribution
Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet I closed the last piece by stating that this is not the case. Why would this be? Let's take a look, as my series on using sabermetrics for... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 2: HR/FB%
Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners... Read More
Using SIERA to Win Your Fantasy Baseball League
Welcome back to the fantasy baseball classroom where we’re learning about winning strategies and advanced statistics that help us dominate. Previous lessons have been focused on hitters, as we’ve explored BABIP as well as hard-hit rates. Now we turn our attention to pitchers and their SIERA.Featured Promo: Get any full-season MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off.... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 1: BABIP for Hitters
Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty advanced... Read More
Using Pitch Velocity and Usage Patterns to Win Your Fantasy Baseball League
Pitching is a beautiful monster. It's such an elegant art that presents us with a nearly endless stream of data points to pick apart. On the one hand, this gives us a lot to explore and discuss, on the other hand it means there’s plenty of digging to do. We’re here today to talk about... Read More
Using Plate Discipline Metrics to Win Your Fantasy Baseball League
Welcome back to the fantasy baseball classroom where we’re learning about advanced statistics that give us a leg up on the competition, and help us win our fantasy baseball leagues. Our first articles were about a hitter’s BABIP as well as hard-hit rates. We then looked at pitchers and their SIERAs. If you didn't get... Read More
Using Hard Hit Rates to Win Your Fantasy Baseball League
Welcome to this little crash course on hard hit rates. Use this helpful tool in the battle for fantasy baseball supremacy. Hard hit rate relates to several things: the velocity at which a baseball leaves the bat after contact is made, the hang time, the angle at which it is hit, amongst others involved in an algorithm... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 10: Minor League Stats
Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can be disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply do not have all of the data available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline stats,... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 9: PITCHf/x
One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. PITCHf/x is a publicly available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to help fantasy owners make this determination for mound breakouts and busts alike. The first data point, and the easiest to understand, is... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 8: Batted Ball Distribution for Pitchers
The league average batted ball distribution in 2015 was 20.9% liners, 45.3% grounders and 33.8% flies. Last time, we took a brief look at how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.129 BABIP in 2015) consistently have... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 7: BABIP for Pitchers
While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. Some of this is unpredictable, but we can and should predict some of... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 6: FIP and xFIP
The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 5: Lineups, Runs and RBI
To this point, this column has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate HRs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team dependent stats, and are unhelpful... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 4: Plate Discipline for Hitters
No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 3: Batted Ball Distribution
In the first post of this series, I referenced that Chris Davis's BABIP is not explained by that post alone, and that we would consider him again in the future. He was not considered in Part 2. He will be considered here. Davis managed an above average overall BABIP of .319 in 2015, despite the... Read More
Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 2: HR/FB for Hitters
Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI--and maybe more.... Read More
Hitters Advanced Statistics: Keys to Analyzing Fantasy Trends
Advanced statistics are not new. Though as recently as 10 years ago they were the subject of much derision among sportswriters and broadcasters, all but the most hidebound and dusty now acknowledge their existence, with most embracing them at least to some extent. Even Hawk Harrelson-- he of "The Will to Win"-- accepts and uses... Read More
Saber Smart: Fantasy Baseball Stats and Terms Glossary (Part 2)
In this series of articles, we'll take a look at some sabermetric stats which you'll hear tossed around many RotoBaller articles and many other sites as well. The goal of these glossary pieces is to help you understand these statistics and how to use them in your fantasy baseball analysis. In Part 1 of this... Read More
Getting Saber Smart: Fantasy Baseball Stats and Terms Glossary (Part 1)
In this series of articles, we'll take a look at some sabermetric stats which you'll hear tossed around many RotoBaller articles and many other sites as well. The goal of these glossary pieces is to help you understand these statistics and how to use them in your fantasy baseball analysis. In Part 1 of this... Read More
Sleeper Hitters Who Could See a Big Second Half
These Hitters Love To Lay Down The Wood This is the third in a series of articles in which we will evaluate potential fantasy baseball sleepers by looking at deeper statistics and advanced sabermetrics. Today we are going to try and project four hitters that should see increased production in batting average, and subsequently, in... Read More
Projecting Home Run Sleepers Using HR/FB Rate
This is the first in a series of articles in which we will evaluate potential fantasy baseball sleepers by looking at deeper statistics and advanced sabermetrics. Today we are going to try and project four hitters that should see increased production in the home runs category during the hot summer months. If you are in need... Read More